Phoenix Raceway

This week it's back to normal handicapping, when it comes to Phoenix there are only around 10 cars that will legitimately have a shot a winning this one. Although in Nascar there is always a chance for an underdog win. Odds makers know that the favorites usually prevail at these types of tracks and once practices/qualifying are over the better cars will have drastically lower odds. I am taking my chances and placing my bets early this week trying to get some value out of what I think will be the dominate car's before they get on the track. I really see the fords being stout this weekend but I need to see more out of them before I risk any $ on them. I did add a few with really good odds as covers.

Johnson is by far the favorite and should be with an average finish of 6th place. His odds reflect that and I see no value on him so I will pass on him for now. If your looking to take only one driver he would be the one to consider.

Sprint Race at Phoenix
1 unit - Hamlin +750
1 unit - Harvick +900
1 unit - Kyle Busch +900

Early Cover Bets
.12 units - Kurt Busch +1650
.12 units - Edwards +2000
.10 units - Biffle +4000


YTD   +5.85 units
Cup  (3-0) +7.5 units
Nationwide (0-1) -3 units
Trucks (0-0-1) +0 units
H2H Matchups (1-0) +.8 units
H2H Parlay Matchups (1-2) +.55 units

Nationwide Phoenix Race Plays

2 units - Kyle Busch +225

.5 units - Keselowski +400 (cover)

Busch has dominated here in the nationwide series lately. His last four races he finished 11th, 4th, 1st, 1st. He has also led 87% of the laps here the past two races. I see no reason why he can't do it again and I will add keselowski as my cover bet.

Agreed with the 54 camp. Hopefully we won't get bitten by strategy. I've gone kamikaze on this line myself.  I'll wait post practice to see who I'll cover with.

What if Harvick has a rocket come Saturday ?? 

Agreed in the Nationwide race GamesToBet 
gonna play something similar
can't see anyone beating BOTH 54 and 22 come Saturday

bol GTB

Although you can't ignore his stats at this track he is racing for a new team in both the cup and nationwide series this year. Being only the second race of the season I'm worried he's putting most of his effort into his new cup team and not so much in his JR motorsports ride this week. I took Keselowski based on his great run in the series last year but I really considered Kenseth instead because going back the last 3 races Gibbs toyota's have dominated with a few different drivers (Kenseth, Logano, Vickers, Busch) LEADING 528 of 604 laps or 87%

Looks like the rain is going away and we will get the race in today!

Nationwide H2H Matchup Parlay

1 unit to win 1.4
Busch over Harvick -225
Keselowski over Kenseth  -150

On the sprint cup side i'm not sure what to make of all the practice and qualifying times as they are all over the place. It appears that my gut feeling on the fords is unfortunately looking true. I was glad to see Harvick 1st in the last practice but Keselowski now looks like one of the cars to beat this week. I would not be surprised to see the fords dominate the race come Sunday, and can the Gibbs cars really be that bad? I guess time will tell...

Good Luck Guys!

High five games

 I finally finished on the positive side of a rain shortened race for once. Good day today, 2-0 for +5.4 units, I think most of the forum was on the #54 too!

2 units - Kyle Busch +225

1 unit to win 1.4
Busch over Harvick -225
Keselowski over Kenseth  -150


YTD   +11.25 units
Cup  (3-1) +7.5 units
Nationwide (1-1) +1 units
Trucks (0-0-1) +0 units
H2H Matchups (1-0) +.8 units
H2H Parlay Matchups (2-2) +1.95 units

Wish I bought Harvick earlier like you did.

Looks like the car to beat

With 2 of my 3 early picks not looking so good so far through practice's and Qualifying I have decided to take some of my winnings from yesterday and attempt to hedge by adding a couple drivers. Although it would not shock me at all to see Hamlin or Busch leading this race at some point today. The Harvick play is looking good he is now the race favorite at +500 and seems to have the dominate car in the second and final practice sessions. My final to win plays are as follows, including the posted above.

 Phoenix Sprint Cup
EARLY PLAYS
1 unit - Hamlin +750
1 unit - Harvick +900
1 unit - Kyle Busch +900

RACE DAY PLAYS
1 unit - Harvick/Keselowski to win +381
.63 units - Logano +1300
.37 units - Keselowski +800

Let's Go Racing!

OK, I'm going to bite on JR at +1600. This line keeps going up and I see no reason why with his recent momentum coming into this week. I have never seen the guy more confident, and with a good car in practice he seems like an easy cover play here. Although I hear that the books lost big on JR winning the 500. Could this be an attempt for them to recover some of their losses from the #88 bettors based on his recent 55 to 1 race to win ratio? Well, I think we see a different Dale Jr this year, so just in case:

.25 units - Dale JR +1600

• 5th, 4th, 6th in practice
• Qualified 5th
• 2 Wins at Phoenix (03, 04)
  
• Finished Top 5 in both races here last year

A couple H2H parlay's here and i'm done. I already have out way more than I am comfortable with but will still profit nicely on all but a couple of my cover bets if they hit. An advantage of picking the race favorite early at a line with value. Harvick is now +450!

H2H Match Up Parlay
Risking .5 units to win 1.44
#5 over #14 (-150)
#2 over #20 (-205)
#4 over #24 (-175)

Parlay
Risking .5 units to win 1.55
#88 under 7.5 (+110)
#5 under 7.5 (-105)

Alright the damage is done - no going back now. Cant wait to see how this one plays out!

  Race Winner - Kevin Harvick +900 (+9.22 units)

Won 1 of 1 Match up parlays (+.94 units)
#5 over #14 (-150)
#2 over #20 (-205)
#4 over #24 (-175)
Risk .5 units to win 1.44

Phoenix Cup Race +10.16 units
Phoenix Nationwide Race +5.4 units
Phoenix Race Weekend Total +15.56 units


YTD   +21.41 units
Cup  (4-1) +16.72 units
Nationwide (1-1) +1 units
Trucks (0-0-1) +0 units
H2H Matchups (1-0) +.8 units
H2H Parlay Matchups (3-3) +2.89 units

Nicely done!