MotoGP - Phillip Island - Tissot Australian Grand Prix

Question

Aragon 0-1 -90, Marquez crashed with 3 laps left in the race

Motegi 1-0 +18, Hiroshi easily handles Abraham

Race Wagers

To Win Race, 5-7, -57

Win Without Big 4, 1-1 +7.50

To Podium, 2-0, +25
Dual Forecast, 1-1, +46.70

Top 6 Podium: 0-1, -22

Head-to-Head: 7-7, -10.70

Group Betting: 0-2, -15

Parlays: 0-0,
1st Lap Winner: 3-1, +76.25
Total: 19-20, +50.75

Qualifying Wagers

Fastest Qualifier: 2-1, +14

Head-to-Head: 3-6, -64
Total: 5-7, -50

Season Total: 24-27, +0.75

Introduction:

Phillip Island, the self-styled home of Australian motorsport, is steeped in motor racing tradition, with the first car races having been held there on public roads in the 1920s. The first motorcycle races took place in 1931 and a permanent track was built in 1956. The circuit fell into disrepair during the late 70s and early 80s until it was bought in 1985 and given a AUS $5m facelift. MotoGP returned in 1989 and 1990 before becoming a regular fixture once more from 1997 onwards.

The Phillip Island circuit is blessed with breathtaking scenery and beautiful ocean views and, as one of the fastest, most fluid, tracks on the calendar, it continues to provide some of the most spectacular racing in the MotoGP season. -MotoGP.com

Well the young phenom took home the world championship with a stellar second place finish in Motegi. We now shift our attention over to the fierce battle for second place.

Pedrosa 230 pts

Valentino 230 pts

Lorenzo 227 pts

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Aragon 0-1 -90, Marquez crashed with 3 laps left in the race

Motegi 1-0 +18, Hiroshi easily handles Abraham

Race Wagers

To Win Race, 5-7, -57

Win Without Big 4, 1-1 +7.50

To Podium, 2-0, +25
Dual Forecast, 1-1, +46.70

Top 6 Podium: 0-1, -22

Head-to-Head: 7-7, -10.70

Group Betting: 0-2, -15

Parlays: 0-0,
1st Lap Winner: 3-1, +76.25
Total: 19-20, +50.75

Qualifying Wagers

Fastest Qualifier: 2-1, +14

Head-to-Head: 3-6, -64
Total: 5-7, -50

Season Total: 24-27, +0.75

Introduction:

Phillip Island, the self-styled home of Australian motorsport, is steeped in motor racing tradition, with the first car races having been held there on public roads in the 1920s. The first motorcycle races took place in 1931 and a permanent track was built in 1956. The circuit fell into disrepair during the late 70s and early 80s until it was bought in 1985 and given a AUS $5m facelift. MotoGP returned in 1989 and 1990 before becoming a regular fixture once more from 1997 onwards.

The Phillip Island circuit is blessed with breathtaking scenery and beautiful ocean views and, as one of the fastest, most fluid, tracks on the calendar, it continues to provide some of the most spectacular racing in the MotoGP season. -MotoGP.com

Well the young phenom took home the world championship with a stellar second place finish in Motegi. We now shift our attention over to the fierce battle for second place.

Pedrosa 230 pts

Valentino 230 pts

Lorenzo 227 pts

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Jorge Lorenzo to Win Race (&#x2B;300)     20/60Bet Placed 10/14/14 @ Bet365Could of gotten &#x2B;350 at a few UK books but I hate their deposit/withdrawal methods. I highly recommend this play at that price if it&#x27;s still available. Write up to follow

MoreGeezer · Answer

man it&#x27;s not a bad bet,but i would slow down a bit.I think marquez has hold himself down the last races,probably because i wanted the championship and didn&#x27;t want to take risks.If he starts running again who knows what could happen.definitely lorenzo could win,but it will be tough race i think.more than else,i would definitely take a look at the match ups with aleix espargaro in the qualifics.he will struggle here,too many long straights for his underpowered bike.tyres won&#x27;t save him this time also would like to bet ducati against anything else besides the big 4

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Thanks GzI&#x27;m confused about what you mean by slow down? Do you mean betting on Lorenzo so early in the week? Or the size of the wager? Or simply betting on Lorenzo to Win the race? I highly doubt Marquez held back in any race this year. Especially the last 2. He took a huge risk to try and win in aragon. He paid the price for that risk. Then in Motegi he fought for the second position but ultimately did not have the pace of Lorenzo and had to settle there. This circuit is built for #99. His smooth riding style fits perfectly with the fast corners. He has proven me right so far in free practice. New Bet365 line as of today: Lorenzo to Win Race &#x2B;120Not quite sure what to make of qualifying. Aleix usually has somewhat of an upper hand with the soft option. Also has the second quickest time through 3 practices. Sadly not to many head to head match&#x27;ups on the board as of now

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Dani Pedrosa Fastest Qualifier (&#x2B;2500)     5/125Bet Placed 10/17/14 @ Bet365 I know he&#x27;s coming through Qualifying 1. He should only be a &#x2B;1500 at most. Why not take a shot. bwin has this odd at &#x2B;1600 and that is probably the most correct price. He hasn&#x27;t looked good at all IMO though. This is a pure value play.

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Jorge Lorenzo 1st Lap Winner (&#x2B;150)     20/30Bet Placed 10/18/14 @ bwinAs I&#x27;ve said all year long, anytime you can get the best starter in the game on the starting grid it at &#x2B;money becomes an "auto" bet. Jorge loves to jump out in front and push as hard as possible out of the gate. Starting 3rd on the grid should not stop him from being the first guy through doohan corner and the first guy through the finish line to start the race

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Hey Gz. I wanna run these match ups by you and see how you feel about em.

Hayden to beat Abraham (-150)

Dovi to beat Bradl (-160)

Smith to Beat A.Espargaro, Crutchlow, Bautista (+188)

Really like Hayden this weekend to beat Abraham.

MoreGeezer · Answer

I don&#x27;t have a clue about hayden bet.Dovizioso said himself he doesn&#x27;t like this circuit,and the times show it.bradl is on the same boat so i&#x27;m not that sure;i would slightly lean for dovi.But about dovi,for me the match-up that has value is him vs iannone at 1.83,i would suggest to take ian,in the quilifics he couldn&#x27;t give his all for tyres problems and performed well in the fps.it&#x27;s my best bet in motogp this week end.About the group with smith,the only problem i see is crutchlow,and frankly i can&#x27;t get an idea of how good he is.it&#x27;s a no bet for me.do you think aleix is good vs bradl at 1.75?

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Thank you sir. I feel like that Ducati match up is to hard to call. Might stay away from that one. Aleix is very difficult to gauge this weekend. If the sun isn&#x27;t shinning at 4pm it could be quite cold and therefore help him use the soft option tire over race distance. On the other hand if it&#x27;s hot and the sun is out he will be much slower on the medium option. Hayden to beat Abraham is my favorite match up and will most likely be a play for me.

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Also the group with Smith I think has alot of value. Crutchlow IMO won&#x27;t finish the race and therefore gives Smith the best shot to win. At &#x2B;188 it&#x27;s worth another look over. Also how good can cal be here over race distance? Sure he put up decent qualifying times, but he should, having a advantage being able to use the soft option. He may not have that same advantage tonight. Aleix and Bautista should be well behind Smith if all goes according to the plan.

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Nicky Hayden to Beat Karel Abraham (-150)     20/13.33Bet Placed 10/18/19 @ Bet365Nicky has returned to form after a double wrist surgery mid way through the year. He is the better rider,on the better bike, with the better team. Hayden was clearly the faster rider through free practice and also was quicker in qualifying while not having his best showing. I dont know where Karel is getting all this love from but he has not raced well since assen and that finish was a fluke in itself. I may just get a bit of luck and have Abrahams day cut short due to technical problems or a fall. He has not been consistent and nicky has been.If they both cross the finish line I see hayden winning by 5-10&#x2B; seconds.

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Smith to Beat Crutchlow/A.Espargaro/Bautista (&#x2B;188)     20/37.50Bet Placed 10/18/14 @ Bet365I honestly believe Smith has a great shot at tying his best finish of the season where he saw himself finish 5th in texas. I know he has struggled this season, especially through the middle of the season. He looks to be in his best form this weekend and seems very confident in his team and race set up. Not to mention he put himself in a great second grid position yesterday in qualifying. Sure Cal is a bit worrying but I dont see him finishing in the top 8. Espargaro can also give us a run for our money but there is honestly way to many variables that would have to fall into place for that to happen. Dont know what Bautista is doing in this group but hey, thanks for adding some value on Smith!

MoreGeezer · Answer

You convinced me with Smith.I&#x27;ll make it a small play about ducati,cant give you the links with the interviews to both raiders as they are in italian(tell me if you know the language,i&#x27;ll send them right away) but one tells you he had one of best weekends of his season(ias 1st in FP4) while dovizioso ran in the 8th / 9 positions.good luck for the raceIf you want to discuss moto2 as well i&#x27;m here

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Glad your rolling with me buddyYea I watched  both interviews but in English. Dovi definitely looked displeased with the tires and his inability to adapt his riding style to the circuit. Iannone on the other hand seemed quite pleased with his results and feels confident he can score a top 6 position. The only thing holding me back is the fact that Dovi is such a strong rider on a better bike. Making the gap between the two this weekend that much smaller than on paper. Might just go a half unit and ride with you

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Haven&#x27;t followed moto2 buddyIf your playing moto3 we could definitely discuss some picks!

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

MoreGeezer - Iannone at 2.00 to beat Dovi, take it. Aoyama to beat Abraham 1.83, take it. I don&#x27;t have paddy power or I would be on these as well

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

I would make Aoyoma to beat Abraham a substantial size wager. Shouldn&#x27;t be a match up. Or the line should be 1.30

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Bradl to Beat Hernandez/Bautista (-285)     20/7Bet Placed 10/18/14 @ bwinIf he doesn&#x27;t crash or have a technical issue he wins this one everytime. Bautista said he&#x27;d be happy to finish the race and it feels like he&#x27;s riding on ice in the corners. Yonny isn&#x27;t even close to the same level as Bradl bike wise.

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Praying for no rain. Most of these lines have shifted in my favor.

Lorenzo to Win +170 from +300

Hayden to beat Abraham -200 from -150

Smith to win group +170 from +188

Bradl to win group -333 from -285

All the rest are the same

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

Iannone to beat Dovizioso (-138)     20/14.55Bet Placed 10/18/14 @ Bet365 Thanks for the recommendation MoreGeezer Wish I could of gotten -120 like you. Still a good play though. bol buddy

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by The-OG-GunClapa]  Jorge Lorenzo 1st Lap Winner (&#x2B;150)     20/30Lorenzo 1st Lap Winner (&#x2B;160)     10/16Bet Placed 10/18/14 @ bwinAs I&#x27;ve said all year long, anytime you can get the best starter in the game on the starting grid it at &#x2B;money becomes an "auto" bet. Jorge loves to jump out in front and push as hard as possible out of the gate. Starting 3rd on the grid should not stop him from being the first guy through doohan corner and the first guy through the finish line to start the race  [/Quote]Added a little more to this one.

The-OG-GunClapa · Answer

[Quote: Originally Posted by The-OG-GunClapa]  Jorge Lorenzo 1st Lap Winner (&#x2B;150)     20/30Jorge Lorenzo 1st Lap Winner (&#x2B;160)     20/32Bet Placed 10/18/14 @ bwinBet Placed 10/19/14 @ bwinAs I&#x27;ve said all year long, anytime you can get the best starter in the game on the starting grid it at &#x2B;money becomes an "auto" bet. Jorge loves to jump out in front and push as hard as possible out of the gate. Starting 3rd on the grid should not stop him from being the first guy through doohan corner and the first guy through the finish line to start the race  [/Quote]I couldn&#x27;t help it. My favorite bet in motogp. Bet365 adjusted their price to -110, so I feel even more confident in this.

MotoGP - Phillip Island - Tissot Australian Grand Prix

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