Michigan Race Discussion

6/17/2011 11:30 AM Mark Martin vs Dale Earnhardt Jr
131 Mark Martin          
132 Dale Earnhardt Jr 
        
6/17/2011 11:30 AM Greg Biffle vs Matt Kenseth
133 Greg Biffle          
134 Matt Kenseth 
        
6/17/2011 11:30 AM Kyle Busch vs Tony Stewart
135 Kyle Busch          
136 Tony Stewart 
        
6/17/2011 11:30 AM Jimmie Johnson vs Jeff Gordon
137 Jimmie Johnson          
138 Jeff Gordon 
        
6/17/2011 11:30 AM Kasey Kahne vs Ryan Newman
139 Kasey Kahne          
140 Ryan Newman 
        
6/17/2011 11:30 AM David Reutimann vs Martin Truex Jr
141 David Reutimann          
142 Martin Truex Jr    

Here are your Q matchups without odds, gonna start breaking this shit down right now.

My opinions

131 Mark Martin                      -150
132 Dale Earnhardt Jr              +120

133 Greg Biffle                        -130
134 Matt Kenseth                   +100

135 Kyle Busch                       -120
136 Tony Stewart                    -110

137 Jimmie Johnson                 -160
138 Jeff Gordon                        +125

139 Kasey Kahne                    -120
140 Ryan Newman                   -110

141 David Reutimann                -115
142 Martin Truex Jr                   -115

These are not the lines out, just what I think we will see. 

Greek Lines

Motor Racing EXIT
Heluva Good Sour Cream Dips 400 June 17-19, 2011 - Qualifying Matchups  
 
6/17/2011 11:30 AM Mark Martin vs Dale Earnhardt Jr
131 Mark Martin      -140    
132 Dale Earnhardt Jr      +115 
  
6/17/2011 11:30 AM Greg Biffle vs Matt Kenseth
133 Greg Biffle      -150    
134 Matt Kenseth      +120
   
6/17/2011 11:30 AM Kyle Busch vs Tony Stewart
135 Kyle Busch      -125    
136 Tony Stewart      +100 
  
6/17/2011 11:30 AM Jimmie Johnson vs Jeff Gordon
137 Jimmie Johnson      -160    
138 Jeff Gordon      +130  
 
6/17/2011 11:30 AM Kasey Kahne vs Ryan Newman
139 Kasey Kahne      -150    
140 Ryan Newman      +120 
  
6/17/2011 11:30 AM David Reutimann vs Martin Truex Jr
141 David Reutimann      -120    
142 Martin Truex Jr      -105   

can't play anything till the lines come out at Dimes, but that is a play I am considering for sure. 

Sprint Cup   Heluva Good Sour Cream Dips 400
Fri 6/17  12:30PM

Carl Edwards   +525
Jimmie Johnson   +750
Matt Kenseth   +1050
Kyle Busch   +1050
Jeff Gordon   +1150
Kevin Harvick   +1150
Dale Earnhardt Jr   +1150
Greg Biffle   +1200
Denny Hamlin   +1200
Tony Stewart   +1200
Kurt Busch   +1700
Kasey Kahne   +2300
David Ragan   +3000
Brian Vickers   +3700
Juan Pablo Montoya   +4300
Jeff Burton   +4300
Mark Martin   +4300
Ryan Newman   +4300
Marcos Ambrose   +4300
Joey Logano   +4300
Jamie McMurray   +6500
David Reutimann   +6500
Martin Truex Jr   +6500

Locked In

JJ to win @ +750   .15 unit

Hamlin to win @ +1200    .12 unit

Montoya to win @ +4300   .05 unit

Newman to win @ +4300   .05 unit

Think either JJ or Denny wins this week, (Unless we get a fuel mileage race) those 2 guys have dominated the last 4 years here leading more than half the laps run...the results haven't shown with Denny getting the only win, but JJ has been dominate leading 35% of the total laps run...JJ has been on a sick run on qualifying with his last 4 starts here being 2nd, 3rd, 4th, and 3rd.....so you know that +750 will be more like +450 by Sunday. Denny price should also be well under 10-1 by Sunday.... Would like to maybe make a small play on Vickers, but hoping that line goes up before Friday.  Jr way too low right now, will wait like last week and get him at over 20-1 when he qualifies in the back as he usually does here. 27.5 Avg. start last 4 yrs.

   Harvick won the 1st race on a 2 mile track this year, but was far from the dominate car that day.

Qualifying Match:

Jeff Gordon +130 v Jimmie Johnson risk $200

So you're going to give me the #24, redhot off a win, against Jimmie who he dominates in Q stats? Guess so, I'm in.

Race Matchups - Heluva Good Sour Cream Dips 400 - Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI - TNT- Sunday, 19 1:00 PM

Fri 6/17   8501 Carl Edwards #99   -150         
12:30PM    8502 Matt Kenseth #17    +120
         
Fri 6/17   8503 Matt Kenseth #17   -120         
12:30PM    8504 Jimmie Johnson #48    -110
         
Fri 6/17   8505 Jimmie Johnson #48   -135         
12:30PM    8506 Jeff Gordon #24    +105
         
Fri 6/17   8507 Jeff Gordon #24   +100         
12:30PM    8508 Denny Hamlin #11    -130
         
Fri 6/17   8509 Denny Hamlin #11   -120         
12:30PM    8510 Kevin Harvick #29    -110
        
Fri 6/17   8511 Kevin Harvick #29   -125         
12:30PM    8512 Kyle Busch #18    -105
         
Fri 6/17   8513 Kyle Busch #18   -135         
12:30PM    8514 Kurt Busch #22    +105
        
Fri 6/17   8515 Kurt Busch #22   -110         
12:30PM    8516 Dale Earnhardt Jr #88    -120 
       
Fri 6/17   8517 Dale Earnhardt Jr #88   -120         
12:30PM    8518 Tony Stewart #14    -110
        
Fri 6/17   8519 Tony Stewart #14   -115         
12:30PM    8520 Greg Biffle #16    -115
        
Fri 6/17   8521 Greg Biffle #16   -145         
12:30PM    8522 Kasey Kahne #4    +115
         
Fri 6/17   8523 Kasey Kahne #4   -125         
12:30PM    8524 Clint Bowyer #33    -105
        
Fri 6/17   8525 Clint Bowyer #33   -135         
12:30PM    8526 David Ragan #6    +105
        
Fri 6/17   8527 David Ragan #6   -120         
12:30PM    8528 Juan Pablo Montoya #42    -110
        
Fri 6/17   8529 Juan Pablo Montoya #42   -115         
12:30PM    8530 Ryan Newman #39    -115 
       
Fri 6/17   8531 Mark Martin #5   -105         
12:30PM    8532 Joey Logano #20    -125
        
Fri 6/17   8533 Brian Vickers #83   -130         
12:30PM    8534 Brad Keselowski #2    +100
        
Fri 6/17   8535 Jeff Burton #31   -130         
1:00PM    8536 Brad Keselowski #2    +100
         
Fri 6/17   8537 Jeff Burton #31   +110         
12:30PM    8538 Mark Martin #5    -140
        
Fri 6/17   8539 Jeff Burton #31   +120         
12:30PM    8540 Joey Logano #20    -150