18/1 on Kurt Busch? Looks like you have a lottery ticket on your hands my friend.
Group 1 I like Jimmie more than Dale because I don't see him having two bad races in a row, and I am not certain that Dale is going to be so amazing at Hendrick. He'll be vastly improved, but I don't see him beating Jimmie too much.
Group 2- I like Kenseth because he is proven at Cali. I see Edwards towards the front of the race, but not sure if he is going to be better than the 17.
I agree with you in group 3. I think Kyle is going to be competitive in just about every race, and I think I will be betting him to win pretty much every time.
Group 4- I don't like anyone in group 4. maybe if there was a gun to my head i'd take Kasey.
This is the first time these cars have been at Cali. so I looked at the cars of tomorrow that were strong at Michigan and Atlanta to get an idea of who can drive these tracks with these cars.
Kurt Busch still is my clear-cut winner.
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18/1 on Kurt Busch? Looks like you have a lottery ticket on your hands my friend.
Group 1 I like Jimmie more than Dale because I don't see him having two bad races in a row, and I am not certain that Dale is going to be so amazing at Hendrick. He'll be vastly improved, but I don't see him beating Jimmie too much.
Group 2- I like Kenseth because he is proven at Cali. I see Edwards towards the front of the race, but not sure if he is going to be better than the 17.
I agree with you in group 3. I think Kyle is going to be competitive in just about every race, and I think I will be betting him to win pretty much every time.
Group 4- I don't like anyone in group 4. maybe if there was a gun to my head i'd take Kasey.
This is the first time these cars have been at Cali. so I looked at the cars of tomorrow that were strong at Michigan and Atlanta to get an idea of who can drive these tracks with these cars.
My book only offers (as of now) odds to win outright. Until the matchups come up (if even) how would you guys recommend playing the outright winners. I dont want to put all my eggs in the basket of 1 driver but also dont want to stretch myself too think as only 1 guy can wein after all.
Would a "pick a favorite" and "pick a longshot" be a good strategy?
Thoughts/Suggestions/Advice????
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Hey question for you guys?
My book only offers (as of now) odds to win outright. Until the matchups come up (if even) how would you guys recommend playing the outright winners. I dont want to put all my eggs in the basket of 1 driver but also dont want to stretch myself too think as only 1 guy can wein after all.
Would a "pick a favorite" and "pick a longshot" be a good strategy?
Jay- If you are just going to play outright winners, you may want to wait until qualifying and final practices are completed, and even the Busch race. Thpse couple things can tell you a lot . Chances are your odds aren't going to be as lucrative by waiting, but your chances of winning increase because you aren't picking a driver who qualified at the back.
With this race, I took Kurt and Kyle because I think Kurt will qualify towards the front and win, and Kyle tends to do well at California. But I will be waiting on Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth to see where they qualify, and how they practice. If Kenseth is starting in the top 20 I will put a couple units on him because he always moves up during the race and he won at Cali last year. If Edwards practices well, and qualifies in the top 20, he may be the one to beat. If Jimmie is in the top 10, then I will have to change my whole approach because he is great at California, great at COT races, and great at races that start in the daylight and end at night
This is all just guesswork in the end, but I'm pretty certain that the winner is going to be either Busch, Edwards, or Jimmie.
Good luck with whatever strategy you choose.
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Jay- If you are just going to play outright winners, you may want to wait until qualifying and final practices are completed, and even the Busch race. Thpse couple things can tell you a lot . Chances are your odds aren't going to be as lucrative by waiting, but your chances of winning increase because you aren't picking a driver who qualified at the back.
With this race, I took Kurt and Kyle because I think Kurt will qualify towards the front and win, and Kyle tends to do well at California. But I will be waiting on Carl Edwards and Matt Kenseth to see where they qualify, and how they practice. If Kenseth is starting in the top 20 I will put a couple units on him because he always moves up during the race and he won at Cali last year. If Edwards practices well, and qualifies in the top 20, he may be the one to beat. If Jimmie is in the top 10, then I will have to change my whole approach because he is great at California, great at COT races, and great at races that start in the daylight and end at night
This is all just guesswork in the end, but I'm pretty certain that the winner is going to be either Busch, Edwards, or Jimmie.
Greedy-It may just be me, but I don't put much stock into qualifying. I do however read heavily into practice speeds (avg more than fastest laps). 2 biggest things for capping nascar in my opinion are a) what you've seen in past races at each track (obviously), and b) watch as much practice and happy hour, etc as you can on the speed channel leading up to each race.
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Greedy-It may just be me, but I don't put much stock into qualifying. I do however read heavily into practice speeds (avg more than fastest laps). 2 biggest things for capping nascar in my opinion are a) what you've seen in past races at each track (obviously), and b) watch as much practice and happy hour, etc as you can on the speed channel leading up to each race.
I think Greedy nailed it; this is the first CoT race at California and alot of insight will be had after practices. Even the first (starting soon) should show something of general speed capability, though everyone will be in qualifying trim. Roush is the lame duck of the big three this year (Hendrick, Gibbs, Roush) but Kenseth does have his reputation here. Kyle is currently showing 12-1 to win, which I think is a bit much to offer. Keep an eye on Evernham cars; all last year's test data was supposedly flawed, so people were fired and this year they will have better information; good practice speeds won't be a red herring.
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I think Greedy nailed it; this is the first CoT race at California and alot of insight will be had after practices. Even the first (starting soon) should show something of general speed capability, though everyone will be in qualifying trim. Roush is the lame duck of the big three this year (Hendrick, Gibbs, Roush) but Kenseth does have his reputation here. Kyle is currently showing 12-1 to win, which I think is a bit much to offer. Keep an eye on Evernham cars; all last year's test data was supposedly flawed, so people were fired and this year they will have better information; good practice speeds won't be a red herring.
This rain is making it so that there is really no pre-race strategy that is going to work. Can't use practice speeds to judge anything. My Kurt Busch pick is pretty much screwed, so I am going to change my tune.
Matt Kenseth +800, and Edwards +700 look pretty great right now.
Final plays for California:
1 unit each:
Kurt 13.5/1
Kyle 12.5/1
Kenseth 8/1
Edwards 7/1
2 Units
Jimmie 6/1
+11.5 units on the year.
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This rain is making it so that there is really no pre-race strategy that is going to work. Can't use practice speeds to judge anything. My Kurt Busch pick is pretty much screwed, so I am going to change my tune.
Matt Kenseth +800, and Edwards +700 look pretty great right now.
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