WS Gm 5 Pick and Why

We hit the under First 5 and our lean of Toronto Ml in gm 4.  Let's look at some numbers:

         Toronto   Yesavage   260

-195       Lad    Snell         118   

Rematch of game 1 in Toronto - now in LA .  Line opened up at 195 currently around 192 (madduxsports.com)   .   Yesavage has a regular season rating of 260 and Snell 118.   Both have more strikeouts than innings pitched.   

Let's look at some angles:

1.   The opening line of -195 for the home team - since 2009 - we have had 3 situations in the playoffs since I started collecting data - in those games 2 times the away team won straight up and won the game by more than 1 run.    Once the home team won but did not cover the run line.   None of those games ratings align with the game tonite.

2.  Yesavage got a No Decision last gm and gave up 2 earned runs while Snell took a loss.   Does Snell come back in this game as the team is at home.    

3. Looking at the ratings - where both pitchers have more strikeouts than innings pitched and the opening line is -195   - Don't have much but what I do have indicates Toronto can keep it close.    

My Play:

1.  Toronto +1.5 -116

Good luck all

Good luck TB.  

@TheBuddah

 Love the write up!  Good luck TB!!! 

@TheBuddah

Let’s go Jays!!!

This is what I would lean too but now to -120 juice 

Get it back on game 6. That looks like a loss. Enjoy the game though. 

You said the same thing last night and how did that turn out for you?

Good Luck chasing your loses! 

Betting 1.5 is just admitting u don't know how will win 

@D-Town

 Thanks bud and back at ya .

@camby700

 thanks bud- long time no see - hope all is well 

@Asianhottie

Thanks - back at ya

@FelixFermin21

 Back at ya bud

@Digitalkarma

 Not too bad still- back at ya bud .

@Thatguy1

May be right but any reason why ?

@thehuntman

  Good luck tonite bud 

@The-Derks

 I would look at my post gm 3 . - it gives you a bigger margin error - kinda like a confidence interval but it’s based on history - to a degree but not simply on guessing with nothing to go on .  With - 116 - it gives me that margin without risking too much .  As indicated above - don’t have a lot of very similar data points - so a margin of error helps . 

Jays are 2-0 in LA covering +1.5 

Most Blue Jay games the winner covers RL   except for 2 games..  Game 3   and Game 7 vs Seattle

Essentially -1.5 is as good as +1.5

Oh yeah !!!!!!     

@TheBuddah

Most Strike outs in a World Series Game Rookies in MLB History: 

TOR * Trey Yesavage 12 *  2025  * GM 5

BKN * Don Newcombe   11 *  1969  * Gm 1

CHC *  Jack PFiester       9   * 1906  * Gm3

STL * Paul Derringer       9      931  *  Gm 1

Yesavage impersonated Roy Boy , might have been better

Go Jays 

@FelixFermin21

 Thanks bud . 

@umgmu

 Yes - Jays !!!!!

@Macwestie1

 Pretty incredible MAC

@D-Town

 Thanks bud