Wow - what a game yesterday - stayed up and watched it -was glad Freddy came up with no one on base - I just knew he was going to crush one. Got the over 8 and Toronto run line. So far 3-1 in World Series post - let's look at some numbers:
Toronto Bieber 161
-187 LAD Ohtani -2
Line opened at -187 currently 192 or higher (madduxsports.com). Bieber last pitched 8 days ago and got a No Decision giving up 2 runs. His best outing thus far was a against the Yanks on the road where he struck out 8 in 6 innings and gave up 4 hits. His regular season rating is 161 . Ohtani - his regular season rating is -2 - Stellar . He's carried that into the playoffs.
Let's look at some angles on this game:
1. Opening line of 187 -this line has not been an opening line in the playoffs since I've been collecting data since 2009. However, it has been an opening line for the home team 3 times in the regular season - 1 time the away team won outright and 2 times the home team took it on the run line.
2. Ohtani has not pitched since Oct 17 prior to that was Oct 4 - these layoffs (maybe because he's hitting) don't seem to affect him from a pitching standpoint. Pitched pretty good against the phillies and great against Milw.
3. Bieber pitched last on Oct 20 against Sea - didn't do so well and got a ND - giving up 2 runs; however, on the road he pitched very well against the yanks 8 strikeouts in 6 innings pitched and gave up 4 hits.
4. Rating wise - I don't have anything that aligns with these pitcher ratings and the opening line of 187. However, some of the data with different lines as well as with a -187 line - does indicate F5 under.
5. Often (betting baseball for quite a while just an observation) when a team goes into xtra innings and it's a drawn out like this the losing team often comes back the next day and gets it - my lean play is Toronto mline +171.
My plays:
1. Dodgers/Toronto First 5 under 4 -105
2. Lean - Toronto +171
good luck all
on your plays mah man much respect @TheBuddah 
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