Toronto came thru for us lastnight - Let's look at some numbers:
-140 LAD Yama. -1
7.5 TOR Gauz. 24
LAD opened up as a 140 fav basically the same at most books give or take. I give Yamamoto a rating of -1 a very strong rating and he has more strikeouts than i.p . in both the regular season and the playoffs. Gausman has a rating of 24 - been solid.
Just like with Snell yesterday - Yamamoto -hasn't pitched in 11 days not sure how that might affect him as he hasn't gone the regular season nor the playoffs until now having that many days off.
Gausman last pitched 5 days ago against Sea for 1 inning in relief, prior to that he pitched 5.2 innings and got a no decision - having given up 0 runs.
Some angles on this game:
1. With an opening line of 140 - like we had yesterday - the home team has shown they can win the game it's now 8-5 I beleive since 2009.
2. Routine for Yamamoto - may be off based on the 11 days since he pitched last and going 9 innings in his last start is not a usual feat for players in this day and age.
3. Gausman - came in for a inning of relief against Sea and got a No Decision where he pitched great and gave up 0 runs. Based on the data when the home pitcher has a no decsion where they gave up 0 runs - they can give up some runs. I think his routine may be off as well.
4. Looking at the ratings of -1 vs 24 with an opening line of 140 - where the away pitcher has more strikeouts than innings pitched not much to go by - we had 2 playoff games where the away pitcher was favored and they had more strikeouts than innings pitched but the ratings were different - both times - home team won it.
My play - I think the over is the best play tonight
1. LAD/TOR over 7.5
Good luck all
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