WS Gm 1 Pick and Why

Hit Toronto the other night-let's look at some numbers:

-140  LAD   Snell       118   

         TOR   Yesav.    260

Lad opened up as a 140 fav currently 150.     Snell has a regular season rating of 118 and Yesavage  260 - typically on paper the lower the number the better the pitcher.   

Snell has pitched great coming down the stretch - he has 28 strikeouts in 21 i.pitched in the playoffs thus far.    Last time out he had 10 strikeouts in 8 i.p.    Some pitchers it can affect them but he has had back to back double digit strikeouts and gotten the wins a few times this year.

In the playoffs, 9 strikeouts/7 I.p   9 strikeouts 6 i.p and then 10 strikeouts in 8.0 against Milw. last time out.    He's definitely rolling.

The only thing that might affect him is the 11 day layoff since his last start.    Previously, it was 6 or 7 days - pitchers like routine (my opinion and some data reflects that) . 

Yesavage - He has a rating of 260 for the regular season - he pitched 14 innings and had 16 strikeouts.   In the playoffs thus far he has started 3 games, pitched 15 innings and 22 strikeouts.   

I looked at a variety of angles on this game: 

1.  When the away team pitcher (teams in general) hasn't started in 10 or more days - we had 3 of those situations in the playoffs so far- Last start was 11 and 10 days both the ateams lost - once where the last start was 20 days they won.   

2.  When the line is 140 for the away team - since 2009 - we have 12 games  - the home team has won the game 7 times and the favorite away team 5 times. 

3. We have had 6 games this playoff season where both starting pitchers have more strikeouts than i.pitched.   5 times the away team won the game (line was 140 1 time and the home team covered the run line)  -only once did the home team win out right, however, they did cover the run line 4 times out of 6.   

4.  What I rely on the most are the ratings - in this case I compare 118 and 260 with an opening line of 140 for the away team - add in both teams have more strikeouts than i.p and the data is very limited but some of it indicates the home team can win it or keep it close.   

I think the best option is taking Toronto on the run line.

My book has it at +1.5 - 123 - that's what I'm doing.  Good luck all.       

GL on your play RL I have it also @TheBuddah 

@TheBuddah

Great to see you Brotha!!!

Appreciate the details and info!!!

BOL!!!

@TheBuddah

 Bol tonight 

@Kapthat

 Thanks and back at ya 

@Macwestie1

 thanks Mac - back at ya 

@FelixFermin21

Thanks and  no problem - back at ya bud 

@vankiep_0007

 thanks bud and back at ya 

Info

BOL to yo tonight!  

@mjm1012

@Jars

 Thanks guys and back at ya

Simply Beautiful !!!!!

@TheBuddah

@TheBuddah

@TheBuddah

Thanks for sharing Pal!!!

@TheBuddah

Ready for one of your College Football heaters!!!

NICE DAMN I MISSED IT SHOULD HAVE CALLED YOU I DID HIT THE NRFI IN THE GAME