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What the hell should I do?

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Posted: #51
I would hedge now, I think the Red Sox might come back.  LOL.  Nice hit on the parlay.  Pissed at myself, liked the Tigers, was waiting to see if they were going to play and by book never put it back on the board despite the delay.
 
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Posted: #52
Quote Originally Posted by Fishscale:


That's why I talk in units.  One person's units may be $10 and another may be $1000.  Doesn't really matter.  

It's obnoxious and low class when people claim day after day they play 4 figure games and up and discuss dollar amounts.  Some people on here aren't that big and are trying to build a bankroll slowly.  

We've all been there and I've never respected cappers that talk that big money shit it shouldn't matter unless you're either trying to impress people you don't know, or make people you don't know feel small.

couldnt agree more.we are all trying to win money and should all be pulling for each other. does not matter if you are a 2 dollar bettor or a 10k bettor. lets not make us feel small, just pull for us to handicap right
 
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Posted: #53
Quote Originally Posted by Frenchy:

Parlay hedgers make me laugh.  If you want to hedge a parlay, its pretty simple what to do.  LEAVE THE LAST TEAM OUT.  The parlay would be a winner already.   It's nonsense to hedge.  You had a winner already if you are going to hedge the last game. 

People who laugh at parlay hedgers make me laugh.  Your comment is idiotic about it being simple.  He does not know in advance that the first 7 will hit.  The last team he has picked is not necessarily his least confident pick either.  If he hedges the last bet he is a guaranteed winner. 



 
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Posted: #54
i cant bet baseball parlays, but if i had won 7 of an 8 game parlay , i would seriously hedging. i dont know which is more profitable long term, butif the payout was 2000 i would look hard at how strong i felt about the lasty game and ask do i really want to risk that much on one game? walking away with 1100 would be perfectly fine result from a 50 wager  just my opinion
 
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Posted: #55
Straight bet only
 
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Posted: #56
Quote Originally Posted by DA_BOYS:


People who laugh at parlay hedgers make me laugh.  Your comment is idiotic about it being simple.  He does not know in advance that the first 7 will hit.  The last team he has picked is not necessarily his least confident pick either.  If he hedges the last bet he is a guaranteed winner. 





Can you explain this reasoning in a little more detail? It's kind of baffling.

If the first seven do hit and he hedges the 8th, he would have been better off just playing a 7 game parlay. So you don't have to know you're going to hit the first 7 to plan ahead on the off chance you do. You just say "I'll most likely hedge the night game (8th game) if I do hit the first 7, so why don't I play a 7 game parlay instead."

Based on your logic, there is no point in planning ahead and installing a security system or buying auto insurance because you don't know ahead of time that someone is going to break into your house or that you're going to get into an accident.

In both the parlay situation and the two examples above, you're planning ahead on the off chance that a low probability event occurs in order to put yourself in the best shape if that event (7 game parlay, break in, auto accident) does occur.

I'm sure I'm gonna gets tons of hate from people that don't understand this concept, so enjoy yourselves.

Either way, congrats to the OP on hitting.


 
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Posted: #57

Can you explain this reasoning in a little more detail? It's kind of baffling.

If the first seven do hit and he hedges the 8th, he would have been better off just playing a 7 game parlay. So you don't have to know you're going to hit the first 7 to plan ahead on the off chance you do. You just say "I'll most likely hedge the night game (8th game) if I do hit the first 7, so why don't I play a 7 game parlay instead."

Based on your logic, there is no point in planning ahead and installing a security system or buying auto insurance because you don't know ahead of time that someone is going to break into your house or that you're going to get into an accident.

In both the parlay situation and the two examples above, you're planning ahead on the off chance that a low probability event occurs in order to put yourself in the best shape if that event (7 game parlay, break in, auto accident) does occur.

I'm sure I'm gonna gets tons of hate from people that don't understand this concept, so enjoy yourselves.

Either way, congrats to the OP on hitting.

Im with you on this reasoning. They make it sound like the parley is some sort of rolling bet and you make another bet after each game wins.!?! maybe Im missing something.

 

Way to go Fishscale!!!!!!!

 
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Posted: #58
Quote Originally Posted by Livan33:



Can you explain this reasoning in a little more detail? It's kind of baffling.

If the first seven do hit and he hedges the 8th, he would have been better off just playing a 7 game parlay. So you don't have to know you're going to hit the first 7 to plan ahead on the off chance you do. You just say "I'll most likely hedge the night game (8th game) if I do hit the first 7, so why don't I play a 7 game parlay instead."

Based on your logic, there is no point in planning ahead and installing a security system or buying auto insurance because you don't know ahead of time that someone is going to break into your house or that you're going to get into an accident.

In both the parlay situation and the two examples above, you're planning ahead on the off chance that a low probability event occurs in order to put yourself in the best shape if that event (7 game parlay, break in, auto accident) does occur.

I'm sure I'm gonna gets tons of hate from people that don't understand this concept, so enjoy yourselves.

Either way, congrats to the OP on hitting.



"If the first seven do hit and he hedges the 8th, he would have been better off just playing a 7 game parlay" 
WHY? The payout for a 7 game parlay and an 8 game parlay minus the hedge amount, no matter the outcome would net you about the same money. 
If he did play a 7 gamer then he might end up hedging the 7th bet.  Giving him less profit.   

"So you don't have to know you're going to hit the first 7 to plan ahead on the off chance you do."
I DON'T UNDERSTAND THIS STATEMENT.  HOW ARE YOU PLANNING AHEAD?  Is your planning ahead not playing the last game?  How is that a plan?

"Based on your logic, there is no point in planning ahead and installing a security system or buying auto insurance because you don't know ahead of time that someone is going to break into your house or that you're going to get into an accident."
WHY DO YOU KEEP REFERRING TO PLANNING AHEAD?  Playing 1 less game in a parlay is not planning ahead.  Planning ahead is stating 'if I hit the first 7 then I will hedge the 8th', that is planning ahead.   

"In both the parlay situation and the two examples above, you're planning ahead on the off chance that a low probability event occurs in order to put yourself in the best shape if that event (7 game parlay, break in, auto accident) does occur."
I BELIEVE THAT HEDGING IS PLANNING AHEAD.  IN THE EVENT THAT THE LOW PROBABILITY EVENT OCCURS (7GAME OF 8GAME PARLAY) AND THAT HEDGING PUTS YOU IN THE BEST SHAPE BECAUSE IT GUARANTEES A WINNER IN THE END.

If I understood your definitinon of 'planning ahead' then I might be able to understand your point of view but until I do I can't.

I have read your statement 30-40 times and it still does not make sense to me.  













 
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Posted: #59

hes saying that when making a parlay and you throw an extra game that starts after all the others end and you plan to hedge that it's stupid. Just leave the extra game out and hit a 7 teamer if it does hit, as the only reason you would be hedging is if only game 8 the one that starts after all the others have finished depends on you hitting it or not.

Now if you make an 8 team parlay with all games at 1 oclock you would never ask this question as you have no opportunity to hedge.

 
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Posted: #60
Listen guys, this is totally out of control.  I do parlays expecting to lose.  I try a few each week and the 1st or 2nd game usually kills the whole thing and it's always the game that was a "sure thing" that does it.  I woke up Sunday morning and blindly took 8 favorites because I didn't like any dogs and I rarely take straight favorites.  

Of course I should have rode it out, but after I saw that 6 had won with the 7th winning I thought, I can either make a grip off this or be guaranteed a decent payout with hedging.

Being that I started the week in the negative it was a guarantee that I would have another decent week if I hedged.  

My book rolls over every Sunday night and we square up the same week.  So it's just that simple. Do I want to be guaranteed to collect cash from my bookie on Friday or do I want to risk rolling over some pocket change for the following week.


 
 
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Posted: #61
Quote Originally Posted by eliminat0r85:

hes saying that when making a parlay and you throw an extra game that starts after all the others end and you plan to hedge that it's stupid. Just leave the extra game out and hit a 7 teamer if it does hit, as the only reason you would be hedging is if only game 8 the one that starts after all the others have finished depends on you hitting it or not.

Now if you make an 8 team parlay with all games at 1 oclock you would never ask this question as you have no opportunity to hedge.


I agree with what you have stated above.  But I don't think he added this late game as an extra game to a 7 game parlay with the intent on hedging if the first 7 hit.  I'm pretty sure he stated he just threw together 8 picks.  And decided to hedge for a guaranteed payout.   
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