Whale Of A Day 5/11

17-24-2, -542.03, - RoR -12.9 %

JMHO – 5/11

FG – Rangers -125  – Soroka/Eovaldi

Strange things happening here. I am sure some RLM genius will point out to me that (supposedly) some whale has dropped  a ton on the D-bax and that is why the line has moved against them, and for the Rangers. I’m not buying it. There is no good reason to think that the D-bax are a “whale” of a threat here. On any given day, anything can happen, but probability is with the Rangers. Pitching, offense and run production don’t often lie to you. 

Now, here is an “IF” bet for you. My record does not warrant a big play on a dog with only one major league start to his credit, “BUT” McDonald came up with solid credentials and looked exactly as advertised. The combination of Sasaki and the current Dodgers offense is not very scary. “IF” within 15 minutes of game time I have a lead in the Rangers game, I will pull the trigger on McDonald. If you want to play along keep an eye on the Rangers score and check back here 15 minutes before the Giants/Dodgers begins.

PAYOR. Play at your own risk.

For McDonald I went with the +½ and laid a little wood instead of the +130 ML which would always generally be my play for a F5.

Instead, after 40 some odd games in the books, pitchers (approx 8 starts) are finally pitching to form and low scores are the bill of fare these past 2 weeks - batters after 40 games are a little tired, possibly sore, even slumping a little (talkin' 'boutchoo NYY!). Because of that I went with the +½

McDonald has a lot to prove to stay in the rotation with Webb on the IL and should have good confidence after last start vs SD. If he convincingly retires the first 3 LAD, this will be the ticket. Only reason to keep watching after that would be to see how his sinker/slider are affected once he gets deeper in the pitch count. 

BOL with TEX! 

Here is a list of Trevor McDonald's stats over a larger sample size of 5 starts at Triple-A

5.40 ERA 1.53 WHIP 12 K 15 BB in 15 innings

Dodgers are not formidable right now, but they are better than Triple-A hitters

Would not consider Giants ! your money, your choice. Just my humble opinion

Eovaldi is not going for Texas

Junis going instead of Eovaldi

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@ezeric

 I see that - play cancelled - I will probably just take the day off, not much of a card anyway.

@barneybeans

 barney, my only hesitation is that I will never play a +.5 or +1.5 run line. Those bets require you to pay juice for the privilege of betting on a specific outcome. Plus a half (F5) only has meaning if the game is tied, otherwise no reason to pay the juice, since it won't matter anyway. Plus 1.5 (FG) is a bet that your chosen team will lose, and lose by exactly one run. In either case you give up +$ possibility to wager on one specific outcome. Not for me, as I believe if you don't think your team can win outright, you probably shouldn't be betting them anyway. BOL 

on FG only, the +/- 1½ is a joke for the reasons you state. However I will lay -1 in order to lay less juice and sacrifice a win for a push on a one run full game, especially in a hitters park - where I rarely bet a fav anyway.

+ 1½ has two specific outcomes, not one. The bet is your chosen team will a.) win outright -and- just in case b.) it's a one run game and you lose by that one run, you pay a super premium for that insurance. Not worth it at all, but that is how I think they rationalize the extra juice with the +1½.

I remember a guy a few years back here who was constantly on the +1½. Agreed, if you don't think your team can win outright you have no business betting on that team. But these guys might think their team will win but want to buy insurance in case they only lose by one. 

I have never ever ever ever, even when I was young and dumb but a MLB +1½

I bought a ½ run insurance on McDonald tonight for $27 on F5 in case it's a tie end of 5 innings. In this park, with these pitchers and the way hitting has been for both teams, I think the tie has almost as good a chance as McDonald/SF dealing like he did in SD last week and SF having a lead after 5. 

I look at it as a 3-way soccer bet 

In a sport as super low scoring as soccer, bettors on a FG pay the extra all the time on a "Draw No Bet" or +½ so as to not lose on a tie or loss, paying juice to win on 2 of the 3 possible outcomes

-1 for folks who don't know is done synthetically at any book, by using a calculator like Johnn Ma's on ZcodeSystem, not using the -1 that some books offer with crappy odds.

I also like laying -1 with big MLB favs in order lower the juice when I think my team is going to clobber, but would rather lay -130 instead of -185 and accept a push/no bet on the one run win by my team. Same reasoning as parlaying two heavy MLB favs.

On the other side, if I think a dog will win, I really like (Seriously) laying -1 with them.   Laying a run on a dog who is supposed to lose?! 

I am not posting it officially but I am taking SF -1 +200 (+154/+230) small - betting community just woke up to the fact that Betts is starting tonight

JMHO, and apologies for a huge response littered about in Key's thread, sorry boss

We will debate -1 or -1½  on a MLB home team, batting 1 less inning, on another day. We're good for two of those debates a year.

Enjoy your night off. Too bad I'll be asleep on the east coast to watch more than 2 innings of McDonald tonight

WHALE OF A DAY 

- Turned into a tadpole

F5 – Rangers -110 – Soroka/Junis

The more I thought about it and looked into it the more I liked it. The D-bax are all smoke and mirrors here. 0-3 vs Cubs, at home, 1-2 vs Pirates, at home and 2-1 vs the pathetic Mets at home. That is 3-6 on a homestand and highlights the fact that the D-bax are 5-13 vs teams over 500. Soroka has been a disaster on the road, and the offense has been flailing (3.11 rpg. on homestand). Junis has been excellent out of the pen and may be auditioning for a starters job. If the Rangers go with a bullpen game through 5, so what? They have a good pen and far better offense. 

Déjà vu ???

twas a good night for me in Key's thread. McDonakd pitched decent

LAD slumping, won my SF -1 at +200

@barneybeans

 When Giants suck they play well against the Dodgers, and Dodgers might be wore out from last 2 titles.

Nice hit on them.