Posted:
#1
Perfect (3-0) yesterday picking up +3.35 Units. The goal yesterday was to have a winning day and the goal will be the same for today with what I hope is another strong card.
MLB: Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins
Pick: ML - Minnesota Twins (-150) / 1 Unit
Analysis: This barely qualifies as a play for me as I do not play ML favorites over (-150) but we're right at that mark today so I'm going to jump on it. The Mariners will be throwing right hander Carlos Silva tonight and he is the key to our bet here today. Silva was terrible last season going (4-15) with a sky high 6.46 ERA. The Twins are very familiar with Silva as he had his best years with Minnesota from '04-'07. Much like the Marlins yesterday the Twins' pitching coaches and catchers who are very familiar with Carlos will be able to give helpful insight to batters as what to expect from him. Last year Silva faced the Twins once and gave up a rough 9 runs in just 3.1 IP. After facing two very tough pitchers in Felix Hernandez and lefty Erik Bedard you have to believe the Twins batters won't welcome the sight of Silva on the mound tonight. Most of the Twins batter have limited at bats against Carlos Silva but almost all of them have had success against him in the limited at bats they've had. If they don't however the Mariners bullpen has already shown to be shaky and without a dominant arm in the bullpen it's not out of the question to rely on some late runs as well. Opposing Silva tonight will be Twins right hander Kevin Slowey. Slowey was very impressive this Spring throwing 25.1 innings while allowing just 6 ER. Slowey, who has excellent command, walked only 3 batters while striking out 22 during the Spring as well. Slowey also pitches much better when in the comforts of the Metrodome where he was (7-4) last season with a 3.38 ERA. One more advantage Slowey will have is that the Mariners as a team only has 12 career bats against him and only 2 total hits. Most of the time pitchers will have the edge when facing someone for the first time and I think tonight will be no different. The Mariners' bats have been hot putting up 11 runs in their first 2 games of the year but I expect them to cool tonight with a solid Slowey on the mound. The Mariners are just (1-4) in Silva's last 5 starts as a road underdog dating back to last year and (1-7) in Silva's last 8 starts against the AL Central dating back to last year as well. On the other hand the Twins are a perfect (4-0) in Slowey's last 4 home start and (4-0) in Slowey's last 4 starts as a favorite both dating back to last season. Any Major League manager will tell you the goal is to try and win each series. That's what the Twins will want to do tonight and I think that's what they'll get done with a big time advantage on the mound and in the bullpen. I'm playing the Twins (-150) to win this rubber match.
MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Total - Over 8.5 (-110) / 1 Unit
Analysis: I'm more of an unders player than an overs play but I think there's a good chance a good amount of runs will be scored in this contest tonight. Zack Duke takes the hill for the Pirates and that's not good news for the P's. In 12 innings against the Cards last season Duek allowed 8 runs and 15 hits. That won't get the job done against a very good hitting Cardinals lineup. Out of the 6 batters with at least 5 career bats against Duke, 5 of them have averages of .300 or above including Albert Pujols at .455 in 22 AB, Yadier Molina at .373. in 17 AB and Rick Ankiel at .800 in 5 AB. These Cardinals hitters love what Duke throws up there and even though Duke had a good Spring and he has more to prove than ever with his contract spiking up I don't expect him to shut down this Cards offense tonight. On the hill for the Cardinals is right hander Todd Wellemeyer. Wellemeyer had a breakout season last year but really struggled to find his stuff during Spring training. Wellemeyer, in 27 IP this Spring, allowed a very high 32 hits and 21 ER. That won't get the job done especially tonight against a solid hitting Pirates team. Wellemeyer faced the Pirates 5 times last season with mixed results pitching well in 3 of the starts and not so well in 2 of them. However, the Pirates batters have seen plenty of Wellemeyer and anything he throws sohuldn't be a surprise to them. Like Pirates starter Zack Duke, I don't expect Wellemeyer to come out and dominate a solid hitting Pirates lineup especially after a rough Spring showing he oviously just doesn't have his best stuff right now. Another thing that is in our favor here is the Cards bullpen who was a big question mark coming into the season and who has allowed 4 ER already in just 5.2 IP. The Over is (7-1-1) in the last 9 meetings between these teams in St. Louis. Dating back to last season the Over is (5-2-1) in Wellemeyer's last 8 starts as a favorite and (16-7-1) in Duke's last 24 road starts. The first 2 meetings between these teams have gone easily over the total and I don't see anything chaning tonight. With 2 shaky pitchers, 2 shaky bullpens, and 2 good offenses I think we'll see another Over in St. Louis. I'm playing this one to top 8.5 runs.
MLB: Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Pick: ML - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (+100) / 1 Unit
Analysis: Not quite sure why the Angels or even money here but I am going to jump on the none the less. Tonight, the Angels will be starting youngster Nick Adenhart. Adenhart has all the pitches to be a dominant starter in this league and after a tought start to his career last year reports out of Angels camp are he's got the confidence he needed to be a Major League pitcher. Adenhart will be looking for some revenge here as the A's roughed him up in his MLB debut 11 months ago for 5 runs in just 2 innings. That's in the past though and Adenhart showed why the Angels have such high hopes for him as he went (3-0) with a 3.12 ERA in 26 innings while striking out 18 and walking just 5 batters. All sings point to Adenhart being ready to have a breakout year and with a fresh start against the team that spoiled his MLB debut I expect him to delliver tonight in a big way. He'll be facing a revamped A's offense. However, OF Matt Holiday may miss another game to a sickness and besides him the A's have a lot of talent offense but also a lot of questions such as the aging of SS Orlando Cabrera and DH Jason Giambi and the health of 3B Eic Chavez. Countering for the A's will be lefty Dana Eveland. Eveland was a welcomed surprise last year for Oakland altought he did not fare well against this Angels team. in 3 starts againt the Halos Eveland went (0-2) with a 6.06 ERA while the A's lost all 3 games. Eveland also is not very good on the road where last year he was just (3-6) with a tough 5.64 ERA. The Angels on offense have one of the deepest lineups and after being relatively held in check these first two games I think the Halos' bats will heat up against a pitchers they've had good success against. It's rare to find the Angels at a price like this at home where they were (50-33) last year. Dating back to last year the Angels are (5-0) as a home underdog and (11-4) at home following a loss. The A's, dating back to last season, are just (16-35) in their last 51 road games including a (7-21) mark in their last 28 roads games vs a right handed starter. I truly believe the Angels have the advantage on the mound tonight and and a better offensive lineup I'll take a shot with the Halos (+100) at home.
Good Luck,
John Tyler
MLB: (5-2) +3.20 Units
MLB: Seattle Mariners @ Minnesota Twins
Pick: ML - Minnesota Twins (-150) / 1 Unit
Analysis: This barely qualifies as a play for me as I do not play ML favorites over (-150) but we're right at that mark today so I'm going to jump on it. The Mariners will be throwing right hander Carlos Silva tonight and he is the key to our bet here today. Silva was terrible last season going (4-15) with a sky high 6.46 ERA. The Twins are very familiar with Silva as he had his best years with Minnesota from '04-'07. Much like the Marlins yesterday the Twins' pitching coaches and catchers who are very familiar with Carlos will be able to give helpful insight to batters as what to expect from him. Last year Silva faced the Twins once and gave up a rough 9 runs in just 3.1 IP. After facing two very tough pitchers in Felix Hernandez and lefty Erik Bedard you have to believe the Twins batters won't welcome the sight of Silva on the mound tonight. Most of the Twins batter have limited at bats against Carlos Silva but almost all of them have had success against him in the limited at bats they've had. If they don't however the Mariners bullpen has already shown to be shaky and without a dominant arm in the bullpen it's not out of the question to rely on some late runs as well. Opposing Silva tonight will be Twins right hander Kevin Slowey. Slowey was very impressive this Spring throwing 25.1 innings while allowing just 6 ER. Slowey, who has excellent command, walked only 3 batters while striking out 22 during the Spring as well. Slowey also pitches much better when in the comforts of the Metrodome where he was (7-4) last season with a 3.38 ERA. One more advantage Slowey will have is that the Mariners as a team only has 12 career bats against him and only 2 total hits. Most of the time pitchers will have the edge when facing someone for the first time and I think tonight will be no different. The Mariners' bats have been hot putting up 11 runs in their first 2 games of the year but I expect them to cool tonight with a solid Slowey on the mound. The Mariners are just (1-4) in Silva's last 5 starts as a road underdog dating back to last year and (1-7) in Silva's last 8 starts against the AL Central dating back to last year as well. On the other hand the Twins are a perfect (4-0) in Slowey's last 4 home start and (4-0) in Slowey's last 4 starts as a favorite both dating back to last season. Any Major League manager will tell you the goal is to try and win each series. That's what the Twins will want to do tonight and I think that's what they'll get done with a big time advantage on the mound and in the bullpen. I'm playing the Twins (-150) to win this rubber match.
MLB: Pittsburgh Pirates @ St. Louis Cardinals
Pick: Total - Over 8.5 (-110) / 1 Unit
Analysis: I'm more of an unders player than an overs play but I think there's a good chance a good amount of runs will be scored in this contest tonight. Zack Duke takes the hill for the Pirates and that's not good news for the P's. In 12 innings against the Cards last season Duek allowed 8 runs and 15 hits. That won't get the job done against a very good hitting Cardinals lineup. Out of the 6 batters with at least 5 career bats against Duke, 5 of them have averages of .300 or above including Albert Pujols at .455 in 22 AB, Yadier Molina at .373. in 17 AB and Rick Ankiel at .800 in 5 AB. These Cardinals hitters love what Duke throws up there and even though Duke had a good Spring and he has more to prove than ever with his contract spiking up I don't expect him to shut down this Cards offense tonight. On the hill for the Cardinals is right hander Todd Wellemeyer. Wellemeyer had a breakout season last year but really struggled to find his stuff during Spring training. Wellemeyer, in 27 IP this Spring, allowed a very high 32 hits and 21 ER. That won't get the job done especially tonight against a solid hitting Pirates team. Wellemeyer faced the Pirates 5 times last season with mixed results pitching well in 3 of the starts and not so well in 2 of them. However, the Pirates batters have seen plenty of Wellemeyer and anything he throws sohuldn't be a surprise to them. Like Pirates starter Zack Duke, I don't expect Wellemeyer to come out and dominate a solid hitting Pirates lineup especially after a rough Spring showing he oviously just doesn't have his best stuff right now. Another thing that is in our favor here is the Cards bullpen who was a big question mark coming into the season and who has allowed 4 ER already in just 5.2 IP. The Over is (7-1-1) in the last 9 meetings between these teams in St. Louis. Dating back to last season the Over is (5-2-1) in Wellemeyer's last 8 starts as a favorite and (16-7-1) in Duke's last 24 road starts. The first 2 meetings between these teams have gone easily over the total and I don't see anything chaning tonight. With 2 shaky pitchers, 2 shaky bullpens, and 2 good offenses I think we'll see another Over in St. Louis. I'm playing this one to top 8.5 runs.
MLB: Oakland Athletics @ Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim
Pick: ML - Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim (+100) / 1 Unit
Analysis: Not quite sure why the Angels or even money here but I am going to jump on the none the less. Tonight, the Angels will be starting youngster Nick Adenhart. Adenhart has all the pitches to be a dominant starter in this league and after a tought start to his career last year reports out of Angels camp are he's got the confidence he needed to be a Major League pitcher. Adenhart will be looking for some revenge here as the A's roughed him up in his MLB debut 11 months ago for 5 runs in just 2 innings. That's in the past though and Adenhart showed why the Angels have such high hopes for him as he went (3-0) with a 3.12 ERA in 26 innings while striking out 18 and walking just 5 batters. All sings point to Adenhart being ready to have a breakout year and with a fresh start against the team that spoiled his MLB debut I expect him to delliver tonight in a big way. He'll be facing a revamped A's offense. However, OF Matt Holiday may miss another game to a sickness and besides him the A's have a lot of talent offense but also a lot of questions such as the aging of SS Orlando Cabrera and DH Jason Giambi and the health of 3B Eic Chavez. Countering for the A's will be lefty Dana Eveland. Eveland was a welcomed surprise last year for Oakland altought he did not fare well against this Angels team. in 3 starts againt the Halos Eveland went (0-2) with a 6.06 ERA while the A's lost all 3 games. Eveland also is not very good on the road where last year he was just (3-6) with a tough 5.64 ERA. The Angels on offense have one of the deepest lineups and after being relatively held in check these first two games I think the Halos' bats will heat up against a pitchers they've had good success against. It's rare to find the Angels at a price like this at home where they were (50-33) last year. Dating back to last year the Angels are (5-0) as a home underdog and (11-4) at home following a loss. The A's, dating back to last season, are just (16-35) in their last 51 road games including a (7-21) mark in their last 28 roads games vs a right handed starter. I truly believe the Angels have the advantage on the mound tonight and and a better offensive lineup I'll take a shot with the Halos (+100) at home.
Good Luck,
John Tyler
MLB: (5-2) +3.20 Units
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