@TxRangers
So your logic is that sportsbetting is completely random and you should just blindly choose a team? Of course “how much sleep” someone got is a variable that you can’t control, but there are other factors you can take into consideration to make an educated “guess” and an informed decision.
You’re arguing results instead of process—that’s the mistake.
Nobody said sharps win every game or have insider info on how LeBron James or Shohei Ohtani slept. That’s not what this is about.
Sharps don’t win because they ‘know everything’—they win because they consistently get better numbers than the market. That’s the entire edge.
Of course sharp sides lose sometimes. That’s sports. But if you’re regularly betting +3 when the line closes +1, or -2 when it closes -4, you’re beating the market. Over time, that’s profitable whether you want to believe it or not.
What you’re saying is basically ‘just pick a side, it’s all random.’ If that were true, sportsbooks wouldn’t move lines, and beating the closing line wouldn’t be the #1 metric serious bettors track.
And your Ohtani question actually proves the point—no one knows how he slept, which is exactly why numbers and market movement matter. It’s how uncertainty gets priced in.
You can ignore all that and flip coins if you want, but don’t confuse that with having an edge.”
Also, how much “sleep” someone got is a randomness factor that applies to BOTH teams, therefore canceling each other out. You can use that argument and say the same theory for each player for each team. This is a “randomness” factor that we assume to cancel out for both sides.
As a sportsbettor you need to make +EV decisions where you have the edge, interpret an OPENING LINE to use your analytical discretion and evaluate whether it’s a trap and if there’s value, and more as stated above.
If you’re treating this as a coin flip and to choose one side blindly, you’ve created a huge disadvantage for yourself, as Vegas already eats 10% on a -110 spread and you should never consider sportsbetting
Spurs vs warriors 2 nights ago, opening line was -13.5 and closing line was -14.5, guess what? Spurs won by EXACTLY 14. Let that sink in as an advantage