I saw a thread where a guy was running a scheme where he would make two bets on the same game if it applicable
1. Favored away team ATS (-1.5)
2. Unfavored home team ML
The idea is similar to an arbitrage; you make money from the difference in juice. The only way you can lose is if the away team wins by 1.
I was interested by this theory, so I did some research. I wrote a script to look through the game history from the 2021 season with lines and make the hypothetical bets that meet the aforementioned criteria. Based on the lines alone, to make money, you would have to win at least 89% of the time to be profitable. The reason is the payout from the “arbitrage” averages to about 0.113 units. If you are a $100 bettor, that’s about $11.3 payout. If you bet 1 unit total split for both sides of the bet, you’d have to win 8.9 times out 10 to win.
So naturally I look up the odds of away teams winning by 1 point in MLB. Sure enough it is about 11.3% of the time on average… crazy