I saw a thread where a guy was running a scheme where he would make two bets on the same game if it applicable
1. Favored away team ATS (-1.5)
2. Unfavored home team ML
The idea is similar to an arbitrage; you make money from the difference in juice. The only way you can lose is if the away team wins by 1.
I was interested by this theory, so I did some research. I wrote a script to look through the game history from the 2021 season with lines and make the hypothetical bets that meet the aforementioned criteria. Based on the lines alone, to make money, you would have to win at least 89% of the time to be profitable. The reason is the payout from the “arbitrage” averages to about 0.113 units. If you are a $100 bettor, that’s about $11.3 payout. If you bet 1 unit total split for both sides of the bet, you’d have to win 8.9 times out 10 to win.
So naturally I look up the odds of away teams winning by 1 point in MLB. Sure enough it is about 11.3% of the time on average… crazy
gambling/investing… tomayto/tomahto
0
To remove first post, remove entire topic.
I saw a thread where a guy was running a scheme where he would make two bets on the same game if it applicable
1. Favored away team ATS (-1.5)
2. Unfavored home team ML
The idea is similar to an arbitrage; you make money from the difference in juice. The only way you can lose is if the away team wins by 1.
I was interested by this theory, so I did some research. I wrote a script to look through the game history from the 2021 season with lines and make the hypothetical bets that meet the aforementioned criteria. Based on the lines alone, to make money, you would have to win at least 89% of the time to be profitable. The reason is the payout from the “arbitrage” averages to about 0.113 units. If you are a $100 bettor, that’s about $11.3 payout. If you bet 1 unit total split for both sides of the bet, you’d have to win 8.9 times out 10 to win.
So naturally I look up the odds of away teams winning by 1 point in MLB. Sure enough it is about 11.3% of the time on average… crazy
I tried to develop a system a while back and no matter what criteria I used all, it ended up close to even over long term. I tried tracking 3 team chase with -110 odds and 1 out of 10 would lose, it's not bad, but there would be times when 3-4 system bets would lose in a row. This is involving all sports over a 2 year period.
0
@confetti_tacos
I tried to develop a system a while back and no matter what criteria I used all, it ended up close to even over long term. I tried tracking 3 team chase with -110 odds and 1 out of 10 would lose, it's not bad, but there would be times when 3-4 system bets would lose in a row. This is involving all sports over a 2 year period.
If you choose to make use of any information on this website including online sports betting services from any websites that may be featured on
this website, we strongly recommend that you carefully check your local laws before doing so.It is your sole responsibility to understand your local laws and observe them strictly.Covers does not provide
any advice or guidance as to the legality of online sports betting or other online gambling activities within your jurisdiction and you are responsible for complying with laws that are applicable to you in
your relevant locality.Covers disclaims all liability associated with your use of this website and use of any information contained on it.As a condition of using this website, you agree to hold the owner
of this website harmless from any claims arising from your use of any services on any third party website that may be featured by Covers.