Understanding "Value"

We don't see it as much as we used to but it has long been a call on Covers to refer to big dogs as "value" picks.

Value is not the price you paid, it is what you got for what you paid. A loser pays 0, or, actually, minus whatever you wagered, while a favorite of -200 that wins pays 50% of what you wagered as profit. 

The "value" ALWAYS belongs to the winner. If it isn't likely to win, don't bet it. That is wishing and hoping, not serious gambling for profit.

Value in betting sports is getting a number that closes better than what you got it for. 

Your value is where your edge is at.

If you beat the closing line, u have CLV, closing line value. 

Very few know their true edge.

But your right. 

Picking Winners is #1, contrary to what many so called experts say. 

Money management is important 

Getting the best line is important 

But those things only help you to lose slower. 

In the end, u must be able to pick winners, whatever method you choose. 

@MITM

@MITM 

What is up with this site? I posted 2 responses and it shows nothing.

Anyway bud, your last sentences just reinforce my point, you MUST WIN to have ANY value.

@KeyElement

 Yes, absolutely. I can go even deeper.

U should only be playing your biggest edge daily. 

Meaning and I'm currently in this ongoing study, dilemma right now.

If your willing to risk $1000 today, u should put it all on your best play. 

Let's say your best play is hitting 60% and your second best play is hitting 56%. U should not even play your 2nd best play. U should put everything your willing to risk that day on your best play only. The math will prove this out. Takes balls to do this but its the correct decision mathematically.

Nice win yesterday, Yankees Dodgers WS preview.

@JEG53

 Phillies might have something to say about this and don't discount the Indians.

Very good topic Key.

MCR thinks value is more about being selective with big favs.

I tend to mix dogs and favs of -150 and lower.

I think a person's capital base, knowledge base, past record, are some factors in what a person believes is Value.

It's always in the eye of the beholder.

@umgmu

 O for sure, could be your 2 teams , I was thinking more of MLB and TV wanting that after that game yesterday. Baltimore is not afraid of the Yankees either, should be a good race maybe.

no it’s not. They are related for sure, but if you still didn’t get better than the actual odds of a win then you didn’t get value

Thanx for the interest in the topic. The fact remains, a winner has value, a loser does not. Great value on a loser is B.S.

@MITM

Just curious are you talking about the Kelly Criterion regarding betting on your best edge daily ? 

not true…

say you bet a MLB Runline -1.5 +125 and the line closes +105… that’s 20 cents of value… even if you lose that particular game you will be a LONG TERM winner beating the close…