YTD 241-244 +40.62
CLV (Closing Line Value): +55.88
CLV Profit (Actual Units Won/Saved by Beating Closing Line): +22.79
As always, I am capping the line, not the matchup. My only goal is to beat the closing number by betting early before the market sets itself. If I do that consistently, I believe I will be profitable. Along with my units I will be tracking CLV (total units I have beaten closing line) and CLV Profit (actual units won or saved by betting early instead of waiting for the closing line).
Haven't played anything since Sunday, where I cashed with the Braves +140. Nothing stuck out yesterday but Tuesday brings three plays to my liking. All bet at the open (plays #1 and #3 off BetOnline, play #2 off BetCris) and posted in my projected lines thread from yesterday.
Tuesday 9/25
955 Milwaukee Brewers +145
962 Colorado Rockies -125
973 Oakland Athletics +185
Quick thoughts on these plays.
-155 too much chalk for Cueto to be laying against Fiers, especially considering Fiers closed -110 @ Wandy in his last start. In the same scenario you are probably looking at Cueto -130 @ Wandy, as such a 20 cent difference and a CIN -140/+130 line is more appropriate. Additionally when you factor in the Reds have already clinched the division while Milwaukee is fighting for their playoff lives the +145 becomes even more appealing.
Chris Rusin just closed +135 against Mike Leake. That's really bad because Leake is probably the Reds lowest power-rated pitcher. Have a hard time envisioning Leake laying that type of road chalk against De La Rosa, so felt the Rockies -125 opener was too low.
Don't see how Milone can close +135 on the road against Anibal and then make him +185 on the road against Darvish. There simply isn't a 50 cent difference between the two, probably more like 25 cents, so +160 or +165 for the A's tonight is much more appropriate in my opinion.
I should have played the Blue Jays... Joe Saunders laying over -200 road chalk is just plain silly, but Laffey is absolutely terrible (he currently sports a negative WAR, meaning your garden-variety AAA call-up is probably a better option at this point) and I just couldn't pull the trigger.
Good luck today everybody.