Tone10 World Series Projection

Haven't posted in the MLB Forum for a while, but figured I would chime in on the World Series with some projections I've made.

The current World Series odds that are being offered are as follows:

Detroit Tigers -175

San Francisco Giants +155

I've seen people on both sides of the fences, saying the price is too cheap for the Tigers or alternatively their is significant value on the Giants.

My calculations and power-ratings are saying these odds are pretty much spot on. In order to get a true estimate for what the World Series odds are, we need to evaluate each potential game first and create a line for each. To those that followed me this season, you know I specialize in line projection, and so the first step I've taken is making these projections. Though the Giants rotation is not set in stone, we can reasonably assume the matchups will look something like this:

Game 1: Tigers (J. Verlander) @ Giants (B. Zito)

Game 2: Tigers (D. Fister) @ Giants (R. Vogelsong)

Game 3: Giants (M. Cain) @ Tigers (A. Sanchez)

Game 4: Giants (T. Lincecum) @ Tigers (M. Scherzer)

Game 5: Giants (B. Zito) @ Tigers (J. Verlander)

Game 6: Tigers (D. Fister) @ Giants (R. Vogelsong)

Game 7: Tigers (A. Sanchez) @ Giants (M. Cain)

As such, based on power-ratings, I've made the following lines for each of these games.

Game 1: Tigers (J. Verlander) -160 @ Giants (B. Zito)

Game 2: Tigers (D. Fister) @ Giants (R. Vogelsong) -105

Game 3: Giants (M. Cain) @ Tigers (A. Sanchez) -115

Game 4: Giants (T. Lincecum) @ Tigers (M. Scherzer) -135

Game 5: Giants (B. Zito) @ Tigers (J. Verlander) -240

Game 6: Tigers (D. Fister) @ Giants (R. Vogelsong) -105

Game 7: Tigers (A. Sanchez) @ Giants (M. Cain) -130

I can now plug these numbers into a spreadsheet that I have which calculates the probability of each team winning four games. This spreadsheet takes these projected money lines, converts them to %'s, and calculates all the different combinations of each team winning four games (i.e. Tigers winning Game 1, Game 2, Game 3, and Game 4, OR Giants winning Game 2,  Game 4, Game 5, and Game 7 etc.) and gives me back an appropriate series price.

Based on the line projections, my spreadsheet spit back a number of 61.5% in favor of the Tigers winning the series, which converts to a ML of -160. However, my spreadsheet doesn't factor in juice (it's a zero-juice spreadsheet), so Vegas will add 10 cents to the Detroit ML and subtract 10 cents to the Giants ML to get their vig.

Which means you end up with my projected series price of Tigers -170/+150, which very closely aligns with the current odds being offered. Oddsmakers have this one spot on.

Some other calculations from my spreadsheet.

Exact Series Lines and the fair money lines you should be receiving in return:

Tigers

Win in 4: 9.7% (+930)

Win in 5: 21.8% (+359)

Win in 6: 17% (+487)

Win in 7: 12.9% (+673)

Giants

Win in 4: 3.7% (+2600)

Win in 5: 5.6% (+1678)

Win in 6: 12.4% (+705)

Win in 7: 16.8% (+496)

I hope this information is useful. Good luck with your wagers, gentlemen.

I'm guessing this would be contigent on Verlander than starting Game 4, because he wouldn't start Game 5 and then turn around a couple days later and start Game 7.

Presumably then, this would mean one more start for Verlander and one less start for Anibal Sanchez.

It would definitely affect the odds. There's probably around a 35 cent edge for Verlander over Sanchez, so swapping Sanchez for Verlander in game 7 probably makes Detroit go from +120 to -115 in that game.

But the series price being offered tells me Vegas only sees Verlander going two games in this series.

Yep, that was an assumption on my part, as I've read the Giants are strongly considering going with Vogelsong on short days rest in Game 2.

Okay thanks Tone...see you next year in the MLB Forum?

You know it... already miss it, wish the 2013 season started tomorrow.

Right....Tigers open up at the Twins. It will be a very cold game and I look for Minnesota to sign some free agent staring pitching.