THE CHASE LOUNGE...Nov 8, 2012

Quote Originally Posted by Angle4U999:

(Note, I have no affiliation with website where this info is posted, if you want to read it for yourself, it is Insider Angles and is a dot com site)

Angle #1 Play on any Bad Team on the road that was an underdog in each of its last four games (96-64-2, 60.0% ATS): Playing this angle may take some courage as it often points you to the dregs of the league, and on the road no less! But that is precisely the point as these teams often offer great value with no novice bettors wanting any part of them, as evidenced by the excellent winning percentage over a nice sampling. This angle lost its only play when it last turned up in Week 8. Qualifier: St. Louis +14.

Angle #2 Bet against any home team coming off of five or more straight up wins (60-41, 58.8% ATS): Very few angles epitomize our contrarian mindset as well as this one does! Bettors love to play hot teams, especially at home, but the oddsmakers know this and this angle looks to take advantage of teams that are becoming overvalued. Yes, fading these teams may take some courage at times, but check out the winning percentage of this angle over a nice-sized sampling. This angle went 0-1 in Week 9. Qualifier: Houston +2 at Chicago.

Angle #3 Play on any team that lost its last game by 28 or more points (90-56-4, 61.6% ATS): This angle combines two concepts, as professional teams in any sport do not like to get embarrassed and oftentimes bounce back strong in their next game, and also bettors tend to shy away from these teams, often leading to added line value. This angle won its only play in Week 9. Qualifiers: St. Louis +14 and Tennessee +7

Angle #4 Play on any road underdog coming off of a road loss (131-73-5, 64.2% ATS): It used to be that teams playing consecutive road games were great fades, but as that angle became common knowledge, bookmakers started  to adjust the point spreads for teams playing on the road off of a road game. Well, based on these long-term results, they may have over-adjusted the lines, especially in the case of road underdogs, and this angle also adds in the motivation off wanting to bounce back after a loss. This angle won its only play in Week 9. Qualifiers: Buffalo +14 and Kansas City +13-14 (Monday). (Wait as line is going up)

Angle #5 Play on any conference road underdog coming off of a road game (164-106-5, 60.7% ATS): The logic behind this angle is the same as the previous angle with two exceptions, as it does not matter if the team playing its second straight road game won or lost its previous game, and also it is restricted to conference game only as now facing a familiar foe lessens the travel effect since the team usually knows how to attack that foe and what to expect on defense. This angle won its only play in Week 9. Qualifiers: Buffalo +14 and Kansas City +13-14 (Monday).

Angle #6 Play on any favorite coming off of a bye week (82-44-4, 65.1% ATS): NFL teams that have had an extra week of preparation time have had a nice advantage in recent years, and the added time off oftentimes has resulted in any injured players the teams may have also having extra recovery time, which is an added bonus. This angle went 2-0 in Week 9. Qualifiers: New England -13 (contradiction) and San Francisco -12 (contradiction).

Quote Originally Posted by Angle4U999:



Angle NFL chase plays. Since some of my chase plays are 4 games, I will not add any new ones as I don't really advise people to chase 4 games. Some teams such as KC and Philly are really bad. Plus, the system I play calls for a team that is favored to be ML. I don't want you guys to have this kind of risk

With that said, I will finish out the chases already started and not add any new ones, other than 3 game chases. When I first started posting, I had already won several on the first game, then of course that stopped when posting here.

BE AWARE THAT 3 GAME NFL CHASE IS AS RELIABLE AS MY NBA CHASES, whether ML or spread. Seattle won on GM2 last week!

Official 3 game chase, GM1 of 3 Oak +8 (Oak is great as dog) Standard 3 game chase, ML if fave. (Wait for update on line for GM2 next week.)

Game 3 of 4 Cincy +4.5 (standard 4 game chase, ML if fave)
(Damn glad didn't go to 4 games, this is one reason I stopped posting these, but hey, it won on GM3!)

Game 2 of 4 Buff + 14 (pushed at +12 last week. Modified system  calls for one spread + 1 if dog and buy down 1 point if fave.Very exciting game, nice comeback cover! Glad to get this one over with.

Game 2 of 4 KC + 13-14, wait as moving up!

What an UGLY dog! Wish I would have pulled the trigger on KC to score first, as this was first game they ever led this year! That prop had nice plus money!

(Unfortunately, all results based on CLOSING line, but you should be okay with lines listed above and if you can do better especially on key numbers of 3, 7 10, 14, 21, etc, always do that!)

Compare these angle plays to McShady bye week trendz and you may see some duplicate. These should be stronger plays and maybe a parlay on a couple.

Double angle on KC with no contradictions. KC has NEVER LED a game this year, so it may be a good prop to bet other team score first, but probably juicy!

(Hope nobody did that)


































  
Voided play, Philly +3.5 (Dallas ML and Philly +3.5 both qualify as plays, so I will wait and pick up the loser for official chase play next week). Philly lost GM1 of 4 Monday night.

Personally, you all know I love to fade Dallas, so I will probably play Philly at least +3.5 or more if I can get it. As an afternoon game, I am hoping for Dallas money to come in.

Quote Originally Posted by Moth61:

Jones, where you playin'?