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The -1.5 experiment

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Posted: #76
Your always going to win around 66.67 each time (using the safe method)...which means you would need to win 3 times to balance out one loss...wouldn't you know it...over the years about 1 in 3 MLB games is a one run game...obviously what you want to try and find is a way to stay away from as many one run results as possible...how to do that would be your major work to making this work...any suggestions from others on how to stay away from one run games...
 
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Posted: #77

Did a little research...take out all games that involve teams in the Top 5 Team Pitching...also games involving the 5 Worst Scoring Teams that weren't on the first list...

Top 5-Team Pitching: Washington, Dodgers, Cincinnati, Oakland, and San Francisco...

Bottom 5 Scoring (not on first list): San Diego, Cubs, Miami, Seattle, Houston...

Then the remaining games are the ones to choose from...today that would include...

Angels/Tigers...Toronto/Yankees...Cleveland/Tampa Bay...St Louis/Milwaukee...Baltimore/Minnesota...Pittsburgh/Colorado...

 

 

  

 
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Posted: #78
Great research PitchBlack. Yes, those bottom 5 teams I will hardly ever choose. They have one run games written all over them. I Love Baltimore/ Minny toniight. I'm going to look into the Pitt game tho. 
 
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Posted: #79
Also pitch if you would like to post plays in here go ahead. Always great to have different opinions and  insight like this 

Most likely my two plays tonight will be the minny game and pitt game
 
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Posted: #80

Good Luck Situation...going to watch for awhile and see how these games go...went back a couple of days and it would have been 14-2...and it knocked out like 4 or 5 one run games...

 

 
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Posted: #81
Game 1
indians -1.5 $30 to win $49.50
Rays -1.5 $30 to win $48

Might have another play tonight. I'm eyeing the colorado game and Twins game
 
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Posted: #82

Like this idea a lot, I would just look for teams with bad pitching. Also I think the rockies are last in the league in amount of one run games so I think that game tonight would be the way to go

 
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Posted: #83
Yeah def looking into Rockies tonight and Games with High overs. So far 5-0 doing this and 4 dogs have covered. Also looking into twins. They got smoked by the A's. They eithier win by 2 + or lose by 2 + lol
 
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Posted: #84

I don't agree with doing this, unless you have over 5k in your offshore.... and start with trying to win $20... and chase from there.  I do think if you were to do it tonight, you are better off going with the Astros/Padres game.  This will be a one-sided blowout either way.

 
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Posted: #85
Bos/cws seems like a viable matchup for this.
 
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Posted: #86
cougar...you are right, I missed that one as neither Boston nor the White Sox are on either list...
 
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Posted: #87
Quote Originally Posted by Louis_IV:

Situation and Weeble - I don't see anything wrong with the feedback people are giving you here.  This is a betting forum.  If you post then YOU obviously are looking for something in return (praise/feedback).  Otehrwise, you could do this on a sheet of paper at home by yourself.

 

 



Except that there's a difference between criticism and constructive criticism. The majority of posts leading up to my post were of the blatantly critical variety.
 
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Posted: #88
I took all seven of the contending games for $10 a side...so $20 a game...just to see what happens...I just read that the number of games that are decided by one run is around 25% to 27% over the last 3 years...if that is true this should be a money maker...as all 7 are over $5.50 profit per game...Yankees and Toronto is the only one that was less...
 
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Posted: #89
G/L
 
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Posted: #90
I'm a little hesitant of the Boston/cws game. I feel that is a 1 run game
 
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Posted: #91
Pitch I hope u hit all 7 but i think this system works a little better if u pick and chose 2-3 games. 7 Games in 1 day u have a high probability of getting a 1 run game in. Even worse 2. But best of luck man Hoping u go 7-0!!
 
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Posted: #92

Just playing it small...just for some fun!

Gonna watch my Tigers on ESPN at the local pub...GL!

 
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Posted: #93
I'll most likely be with u on twins game and the rockies game
 
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Posted: #94

https://img690.imageshack.us/img690/2977/onerungames.png

Thought I would be able to post the above image and not the link but don't know how to do tha heret.  Created the above spreadsheet on one-run games based on data from the espn website.  I will share that link below for those who wish to double check my numbers and then take a swipe at me for errors.  I don't think there are any errors as I double checked.

The most profitable two teams to wager on in terms of winning or losing by more that 1 run are Toronto and Cleveland who are involved in winning or losing by that number 79.8 percent of the time.  Stay away from Pitt who have a high number of one run games and only win or lose by 2 or more 61.4 percent of the time.

So the above link is to my spreadsheet and the below link is for the original data from espn.  Hope this helps and thanks for starting this thread....great idea to investigate.

https://espn.go.com/mlb/standings/_/type/expanded

 
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Posted: #95
.......good grief....sorry for the typos in the first line...."don't know how to do that here"
 
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Posted: #96
Game 2
Pitt -1.5 $30 to win 41.70
Rockies -1.5 $20 to win 34
 
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Posted: #97
Game 2
Pitt -1.5 $30 to win 41.70
Rockies -1.5 $20 to win 34
 
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Posted: #98
Good research Allbutbroke. Really good insight but we gotta be careful on some numbers. Pirates are a little skewed. There offense is improved. I took a bite at em and rockies tonight. Hope it works out. But great research will def use the stuff u have here
 
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Posted: #99
Agreed....numbers and trends should be used with caution and factored into all aspects of capping....pitchers, umps, weather, lineups, etc etc.  I would use the numbers as something to consider in the big picture.  Personally, I would like looking at game logs for pitchers in each matchup as a starting point.  Think I will used the spreadsheet as a reason to look at certain teams more closely.  Best of luck.
 
 
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Posted: #100

For the contending series today...I got the same 7 as yesterday...threw out the two highest payouts and two lowest payouts and I am left with three games...

Angels/Tigers...Orioles/Twins...Pirates/Rockies...

Used AllButBrokes numbers to throw out the highest combined one run between the two teams which would be Pirates/Rockies...and I am left with two games for today...

Angels/Tigers...Orioles/Twins...  

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