Texas at Cleveland - the series finale at high noon

She is a little cutie for sure,plus she was suppose to lose her last match where she came back to win the last 2 sets in tie-breakers.

I WILL SAY IT RIGHT NOW... IF THE LIONS BEAT THE SAINTS, I WILL NEVER POST AGAIN! EVER!

you couldn't pay me to take the lions ML in that game... can't do it, won't do it, I LIKE WINNERS!

Thanks MRBATOR i agree putting in the picks by weds/thurs is crazy.

Good luck on the rest of the Night

by the way i will put a few dollars on the barking Lions

 

are you aware of Verlander's record after a Tigers team loss?  pretty darn good!

Are you going to take KC?  KC blew up my parlay yesterday.

 

that being said.................85% is on DET and the line is down 15 cents.  i got some money out of KC yesterday.  not sure if i want to push my luck.  was thinking DET RL

lol, tough choice between one team and the other on the rl

 

 

Justin Verlander has thrown a whopping 249 pitches over his last two starts.  I know he's supposed to have this rubber arm, but this is ridiculous.  Plus, the numbers don't back him up on that rubber arm thing.  Since the beginning of June, Verlander has started seven games that followed consecutive starts that saw him throw more than 230 pitches.  Let's look at how he did in those 7 games:

 

June 16th - After throwing a total of 239 pitches against the Angels and White Sox, Verlander gave up 8 hits and 5 earned runs in just 4 innings at St. Louis.

July 1st - After throwing a total of 233 pitches against the Brewers and Astros, Verlander gave up 6 hits and 4 earned runs in 6 innings at Oakland.

July 29th - After throwing a total of 236 pitches against the Yankees and White Sox, Verlander gave up 6 hits and 3 earned runs in 7 innings at Texas.

August 3rd - After throwing a total of 242 pitches against the White Sox and Rangers, Verlander gave up 9 hits and 5 earned runs in 8 innings against Baltimore.

August 8th - After throwing a total of 233 pitches against the Rangers and Orioles, Verlander gave up 7 hits and 5 earned runs in 6 innings against Minnesota.

August 24th - After throwing a total of 239 pitches against the Red Sox and Mariners, verlander gave up 10 hits and 4 earned runs in 5.2 innings at the Angels.

Septemer 4th - After throwing a total of 233 pitches against the Angels and Rays, Verlander gave up 4 hits and 1 earned run in 8 innings at Tampa Bay.

 

 

Not so hot, huh?  And if I may attempt to discredit his one good start in this situation which took place just five days ago, he was facing the Rays who were already beginning their death spiral out of the Wild Card race. 

So that's 7 games in which Verlander was coming off of consecutive starts in which he threw an average of 236 pitches in his two preceding starts.  And now tonight, he's pitching on 4 days rest after throwing 249 pitches against the Rays in Detroit and the Rays in Tampa.  Who wants to bet nothing bad happens to him?  Not me.

The trends still look ugly:

Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 games vs. a right-handed starter.

Tigers are 7-0 in their last 7 after allowing 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games as a favorite of -151 to -200.

Tigers are 5-0 in their last 5 road games vs. a right-handed starter.

Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 games following a loss.

Tigers are 4-0 in their last 4 when their opponent allows 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Tigers are 6-1 in their last 7 when their opponent scores 5 runs or more in their previous game.

Tigers are 6-1 in their last 7 overall.

Tigers are 4-1 in their last 5 games as a favorite.

I suspect this is a smallish play for you if you decide to go for it?

 

 

Then don't do it.  End of conversation.   

 

i think the question then becomes, bator, what you expect from the tigers offense. they got some serious talent despite some road troubles, and tejeda is always on a short pitch count. the royals bullpen is not impressive, and the tigers bullpen has the best era in the AL the past couple months i believe should verlander falter.

the royals offense also is far from impressive, certainly not as good as any of the teams listed on your report, save possibly oakland (tb, laa, minn, stl, tex, and baltimore swing some pretty decent bats), and while those #s aren't great, they certainly aren't poor either...

 

 

Nope.  It's a biggish play.

What else are you breaking down aside from the pitch count and short rest? As others have said, Verlander could probably give up 3 or 4 runs and the Tigers would still win in a lot of scenarios ...

Do you like Joba Chamberlain tonight?

Don't you dare bet against Cliff Lee.

i was going with the Mike Singletary speech... No hard feelings... Only action i have on that game involves a giant 15 team - $15 teaser.. just wanted to make week one even more intereting that it already will be

Steve

Thanks for your input

 

  Not a play for me....although I'm currently considering Snell +190 or +1.5 (+110) over Weaver

 

 

How about the fact that a 30-40 road team is laying -190 on the road and hardly anyone thinks they can lose?