New York Mets
Minnesota Twins
Tampa Bay Rays / Boston Red Sox OVER
These are a couple of games I’m looking at right now. Obviously, this is just a first glance I still need to see the lineups and a little more line movement before deciding anything.
It’s been a good week, so hopefully I’m seeing things clearly.
BOL today 
I am not sure what number you are trying to hit.
But NYM are just about at the high of day and may be the best you can get; MIN is off the peak of the morning and may not get back there because it is trending the other way; Boston has moved off of 8 and is mostly 8.5 and starting to be more expensive on that number.
But 3 very interesting picks and BOL whatever you decide.
NOT winning this game plain & simple.
@LVTruck
I understand. But I am interested in more detail if you can share.
For example, in NHL starting goalies are very crucial. In MLB starting pitchers are as well but they are listed and if you do not get them then you have no bet, etc.
But as far as position players, how do you gauge what they are worth. I get if an injury happened to a key player the night before and his status is up in the air, etc.
But my question is how much does it matter to you if the second baseman for the Mets is not starting? Do you have a system set up to say his value is +/- 5 cents or something?
Or is it just a feel thing? Or do you just prefer the 'normal' starters to be playing before you make a bet?
Just curious how much non-pitchers that are not really stars matter to you.
Sunday/getaway lineups can be watered down
If a top-of-order hitter or cleanup bat sits, that can hurt run production, RBI chances, and the entire lineup length
Catcher rest matters more than people think
A full-strength lineup says they’re trying to win the series or avoid a sweep. A backup-heavy lineup can signal they’re managing workload
It protects you from betting a stale handicap
This type of thinking separates winning handicappers from losing handicappers. Good job
I get that part of it.
So, for you, if it is not a full strength lineup it is a no-bet.
Or you take the other team.
How do you assess whether there is value on a non-starter playing that is not really a 'star' player.
Say, Judge starts for the Yankees but 2 or 3 other starters that do not have great stats anyway start today. The backups will not have stats that are that much worse and sometimes will even be better. They certainly will have more motivation.
Do you bother to assess this? Or do you just stay away from any game that does not have both teams basically playing close to 100% of their starters?
I think a lot of this is also dependent on whether they already have Monday off or not.
I don’t need both teams at 100% to bet the game. I need the lineup that actually gets posted to still support the reason I liked the bet. If the missing bats are replaceable bottom-order pieces, sometimes there’s still value. If the lineup loses its top-end run creation, protection, or or edge, then the bet changes or becomes a pass. It’s not full strength or no bet it’s whether the posted lineup still fits the matchup and my cap
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