Strasburg versus the odds

Question

I see the Nationals with Strasburg have opened -230 versus Nolasco and the Marlins Monday.

Let's say both the Nationals and Strasburg are as good as advertised. If so, and he makes the maximum number of starts in a season that is about 32 starts.

At -230 he and the Nationals would have to go 23-9 in those starts before you even begin to make a profit. Pretty steep really. Maybe they should win 72% of all games versus a combination like the Marlins and Nolasco, but even if they do, the profit is only 3% of the cumulative risk you took.

Nasty numbers.

BOL

KeyElement · Answer

I see the Nationals with Strasburg have opened -230 versus Nolasco and the Marlins Monday.

Let's say both the Nationals and Strasburg are as good as advertised. If so, and he makes the maximum number of starts in a season that is about 32 starts.

At -230 he and the Nationals would have to go 23-9 in those starts before you even begin to make a profit. Pretty steep really. Maybe they should win 72% of all games versus a combination like the Marlins and Nolasco, but even if they do, the profit is only 3% of the cumulative risk you took.

Nasty numbers.

BOL

glyde69 · Answer

I agree, Key. &#xD;&#xA;I&#x27;m not huge into taking run lines(maybe 1.5 out of every 10 plays I will take a team -1.5), but if the price is right, you love the spot, and ALWAYS at home, RL is the only way to go IMO when you are talking favorites that big(shiit, I don&#x27;t like going over -130 in MLB let alone -230).  But Straus on the mound at home against a decent club laying -180 or so, I don&#x27;t mind taking them -1.5 EV.  If they win 3-2, so be it.  What I don&#x27;t get is people taking teams &#x2B;1.5.  What is the point of losing all that value(I&#x27;m making an assumption that it is usually a significant dog people would go &#x2B;1.5) to back yourself up for a 1 run loss?  If anyone has a decent hypothesis on ANY situation to take a &#x2B;1.5 wager, please fire away.  &#xD;&#xA;I&#x27;m chomping at the bit for MLB!!!  After a football season where I had my first losing season since 2007(and not just losing; I was absolutely MANHANDLED with my bankroll wiped out by Columbus Day), I need to get back on my bike and get back to business!

DickyR · Answer

Key the Marlins have knocked him around before. Now I&#x27;m not sure if any of the remaining people called the Marlins count

Tigermike1975 · Answer

I don&#x27;t see how anybody would lay -230 on Opening Day. Then again I try to stay away from big lines for the reasons you so elegantly stated.

stevo1 · Answer

KeyStrausburg first 5 games runs allowed last year &#x2B; relievers 20121-5 inn     1-0-0-0-36-9 inn     0-0-3-2-4Gm Total 1-0-3-2-7Nolasco first 5 games 20121-5 inn   2-2-3-1-06-9 inn   1-2-0-2-1Gm Tot  3-4-3-3-1Liking the Under in 5 and 9 and Strasburg

stevo1 · Answer

Only way i lay -230 is a parlay with a few other favs

Voltanic · Answer

One of my most successful strategies is ML parlays on ace starters at home. Strasburg on Monday certainly fits this. Nolasco is tough and there is no value at -230 straight up. Like stevo1 I&#x27;m already eyeing the under. GL this season to all.

5t4r5align · Answer

I was looking at this game yesterday but couldn't find the line posted anywhere (didn't look very hard).

told myself I would play Nolasco at anything over +180, so may be making a play here tomorrow

GL this year Key

ac_bum · Answer

GL THIS SEASON

scottcovers · Answer

I am with Steve and volcanic, parlay is the way to go when they get -200 or higher. I will parlay Texas tonight ml and Strasbourg tomorrow. Texas wins I will hedge against Strasbourg at +220 to come out positive.

Strasburg versus the odds

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