so. over the mlb all star break i built a betting model......

finish the day up 25.00$ could have been better but i will take it. try again tomorrow.

I am tweaking the model to try to improve performance. I made 25$ yesterday but I want to improve on that number. I hope to have everything ready before first pitch today.

Describe your model.  Thx

SUMMARY:
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- Total Games Analyzed: 1,200+
- Bets Evaluated: 5,000+ (Alt ML, RL, Totals, F5 ML/RL/Totals)
- Winning Percentage:
• Alt Run Line: 53.4%
• Alt Totals: 55.1%
• First 5 ML: 56.8%
• First 5 Totals: 54.2%
- ROI:
• Alt Run Line: +6.2%
• Alt Totals: +4.9%
• First 5 ML: +7.1%
• First 5 Totals: +5.4%
- Total Profit (Singles, $10 unit): +$816.00

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PARLAY PERFORMANCE — FLAT $1 STAKE:
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2-Leg Parlays (Alt + F5 Mix):
• Hit Rate: 30.2%
• ROI: +15.8%
• Units Won: +$402.00

3-Leg Parlays:
• Hit Rate: 14.1%
• ROI: +22.3%
• Units Won: +$510.00

4-Leg Parlays:
• Hit Rate: 6.7%
• ROI: +33.4%
• Units Won: +$605.00

Rolling Parlay Max Streak:
• 4 straight 4-leg wins ? $1 ? $1,944.00

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TOP VALUE MARKETS (BY ROI):
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• First 5 Inning Unders: +8.4% ROI
• Alt Run Line –1.5 Favorites: +7.9% ROI
• First 5 ML Dogs (+ odds): +11.3% ROI

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DAILY SNAPSHOT:
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• Best Day: July 2 — +$91 (Singles) | +$212 (Parlays)
• Worst Day: June 15 — -$43 (Singles) | -$16 (Parlays)
• Avg Daily P/L: +$6.40 (Singles) | +$5.15 (Parlays)

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NOTES:
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- Model filtered only +EV bets (model probability > implied)
- Alt lines pulled when edge was stronger than full-game market
- Parlay legs selected based on top 5 EV+ picks per day
- All F5 picks included weather, park factor, SP splits
- Parlay odds calculated using decimal conversion
- Report covers April–July 2025 data only

 these are the back test results. i am tweaking the parameters to try to increase my win % and ROI.

right now the bread and butter seems to be in the 1st 5 inning markets. 1st 5 ML dogs and 1st 5 inning unders bring the most ROI. 1st 5 innings RL are not that bad either.

@Quaffer

 there are several parameters, some of which i am trying to eliminate but they are to many to list. i took me almost 2 days to build and back test. i hope to have an updated version today before the games begin.

@Quaffer

 see post # 32

From the start of the 2024 season through July 2025, here are your combined performance stats across all bets:

• ? Combined Win Percentage: 53.5%

• ?? Combined ROI: +6.6%

This consistency across nearly 2,400 games and thousands of bets is extremely strong — especially with many of those being plus-money dogs and alternate lines. this is how the model has performed since the start of last season to the present day.

1st 5 innings clev/oak under 5 @ -111

1st 5 innings balto/tampa under 4 1/2 @ -101

2 leg parlay 1st 5 innings clev/oak under 5 +1st 5 innings balto/tampa under 4 1/2 @+278

2 leg parlay: 1st 5 innings balto/tampa under 4 1/2 +1st 5 innings balto ML @ +287.

single bets are 10$ and parlay bets are going to be 5$. fade or follow. good luck to everybody and lets have a great weekend. cheers 

@tryn2makeabuck

 Agree on F5.  Thanks for posts