Year-to-date figures. I also looked up the 2009 and 2010 numbers to determine what kind of risk/swings can be expected or likely (I always know that anything is possible!)
The lines are game time lines based off of covers baseball scores. Anyone can verify these numbers and you will find that everything is legit! Here they are:
2011 Stats:
-200 and up (3-2)
-190 to -199 (2-0)
-180 to -189 (3-3)
-170 to -179 (7-8)
-160 to -169 (7-4)
-150 to -159 (8-6)
-140 to -149 (9-5)
-130 to -139 (12-12)
-120 to -129 (9-11)
-110 to -119 (14-21)
-100 to -109 (18-27)
+100 to +109 (33-16)
+110 to +119 (17-14)
+120 to +129 (12-12)
+130 to +139 (5-10)
+140 to +149 (6-8)
+150 to +159 (3-7)
+160 to +169 (8-7)
+170 to +179 (3-5)
+180 to +189 (1-1)
+190 to +199 (1-0)
+200 and up (0-2)
If you bet a modest $50 per game wager on +100 to +129....you would have had 12 winning days out of 15 (one of those yesterday at -$26.50) and profited a total of $1210.00 as of all games played 4-14-2011.
2010 was not so great. For the entire month of April you would have gone 71-74 for a small profit of $280.50 again @ $50 per game. There was a horrible stretch from April 13th to the 16th where +100 to +129 went a horrific 4-17 (which would make most bail!!!!) only to profit in 10 of the next 11 days.
2009 was outstanding in April. For the month going 86-76 for a profit of $1021.50. So you can see what Shirley says about 2011 is true! Hope this helps!!!!
mainmanmainman2 
Thank you for the support
winoNV 
I will not be posting plays, and suggest that you use this selection method as a supplement to your own handicapping abiliites. The selection method is a stand alone winner, and can be improved upon quite easily.
richieporter For this study all of the lines that I used have been at the close. This ensures almost everyone to have similar or better results than what I have posted.
Shirley
GetEveryDollar Thank you for the kind words. I'm not that smart, but sometimes I am able to come up with creative ideas and am willing to work hard at everything I do, that ultimately makes me "lucky" in the long run. In general, It seems that the harder one works, the luckier they get. You can certainly do more on your own than this study has done. There are many directions where one can travel to improve upon this simple selection method.
kcilengir Genius NOT. Dunce.....YES YES YES!
RutgerRot214 Teriffic job in doing further research. Like I have said before, a further filtering process will even raise the expectation of the average play, with a smaller population. Thus you will be able to make larger wagers with a larger advantage, while keeping the banrkoll requirements approximately the same. Nice work.
I remember a poster saying that every game has a different set of circumstances thus a simple selection method would not work, and that it was foolish for me to think that this is valid or if math has a memory, etc.
My response is that in spite of the fact that every game is its own puzzle, the similarities between games in this population of underdogs of +1.00 to +1.29 is astounding. This is where the posters logic is somewhat flawed. Each of these games has enough similarites with other games within the entire population, that the lines at the closing are every close to each other and in such a small window that the linesmakers perception is that of similar teams=similar lines, at least for the month of April that is. If this fact was not true, the lines would not be so close to each other. The circumstances surrounding a majority of games are indeed quite similar, creating virtually the same event over and over again.
However, I am in agreement with the poster on another level. Since this method can easily be improved upon by a further filtering process, this validates the fact that every game is indeed its own puzzle, and handicapping does matter to a certain degree in April. This filtering process combined with some basic handicapping knowlege, and a couple of out of the box thoughts can raise the total amount of wins by at least 40% for the month. This has been my experience over time throughout the month of April.
Shirley
timetobet34 Thanks for the support
ratbastard Terrific comments. You have alluded to a potential positive expectation possibility of my general theory. It's a "spinoff with validity! It is difficult to track the results of previous years, but it can be done.
Don't get too excited or too depressed about 1 weekends worth of plays. The sample is just too small. However, the insight you provide, and the thought process that you employed is the basis for laying the foundation of becoming a winning handicapper. Congratulations on your creative thought process. Also, good luck in your endeavors with baseball this year.
Shirley
Haiti Read the thread from the beginning. This might help you out a bit.
Today (Sunday 4/17) was a good day if you used the method on its own. It held up rather well.
You should have shown a profit somewhere in the 4.3-4.4 unit area, just wagering on the small dogs of +1.00 to +1.29.
Shirley
THE FAVS are on a mission lately. I will finish the tabs on the dogs +100 to +129 soon. The last 4 days have noticed a strong play to the favorites. The numbers calculated are the GAME TIME LINES by covers. The figures are based on $50 plays.
-200 and up (3-0) $150.00
-190 to -199 (0-0)
-180 to -189 (1-0) $50
-170 to -179 (0-0)
-160 to -169 (3-2) for -$10
-150 to -159 (2-1) for +$24.00
-140 to -149 (5-0) for $250
-130 to -139 (4-2) for $64
-120 to -129 (9-2) for $324
-110 to -119 (7-2) for $238
-100 to -109 (4-6) for $-121....bad category (minus plays minus)
+100 to +109 (8-8) for $13 (still winning)
+110 to +119 (1-9) for -$391
+120 to +129 (3-7) for -$162
+130 to +139 (0-5) for -$250
+140 to +149 (1-2) for -$28.50
+150 to +159(2-3) for zero
+160 to +169 (0-0)
+170 to +179 (0-1)
+180 to +189 (0-2)
+190 to +199 (0-1)
I have the final April numbers for 2011. I'll try to condense all info so it is easy to read. Here goes:
+100 to +129 (120-103) for April earnings of $1488.00 (3 year high)
-200 and up (9-4)
-190 to -199 (5-2)
-180 to -189 (6-7)
-170 to -179 (9-13)
-160 to -169 (15-11)
-150 to -159 (13-12)
-140 to -149 (24-16)
-130 to -139 (27-27)
-120 to -129 (26-20)
-110 to -119 (37-42)
-101 to -109 (36-55)
+100 to +109 (68-40) 62.96%
+110 to +119 (26-33) 44.06%
+120 to +129 (28-31) 47.45%
+130 to +139 (19-26)
+140 to +149 (12-13)
+150 to +159 (10-16)
+160 to +169 (16-9)
+170 to +179 (6-9)
+180 to +189 (3-7)
+190 to +199 (2-1)
+200 and up (0-3) 397 games
daily breakdown ahead.....stay tuned
Units are $50. Lines are GAME TIME LINES via covers data.
3/31 0-4 -200
4/1 3-3 15.50
4/2 5-3 146.00
4/3 5-2 179.50
4/4 1-1 1.00
4/5 2-4 -92.50
4/6 3-3 6.50
4/7 4-2 118.50
4/8 5-1 228.50
4/9 8-4 214.00
4/10 7-2 292.50
4/11 4-4 34.00
4/12 4-2 125.00
4/13 6-3 168.00
4/14 3-4 -26.50
4/15 3-4 -19.00
4/16 1-2 -44.00
4/17 5-2 167.00
4/18 3-6 -145.00
4/19 4-3 62.50
4/20 4-5 -36.50
4/21 3-3 19.00
4/22 2-6 -199.00 bad bab bad 3 days
4/23 3-8 -243.50
4/24 4-7 -116.50
4/25 4-1 194.00....ended every day strong....gotta "stick" with it
4/26 7-5 147.50
4/27 4-3 81.50
4/28 3-1 108.00
4/29 5-3 131.00
4/30 5-2 171.00
TOTAL OF 21 OUT OF 31 DAYS IN THE
Here are my under plays thru May 01.Looks like the 110-119 and 140-149 have been the worst. With 130-139 the best. Around 46-47% will show a long term profit.
W L
101-109 13 12 81.59 52%
110-119 14 25 -574.09 36%
120-129 11 10 172.18 52%
130-139 18 14 512.91 56%
140-149 1 8 -312.20 11%
TOTALS 57 69 -119.61 45%
Established in 1995,
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