herbshack. You did a crazy job here picking some nice dogs in Sept. I just looked at your thread today and wish I saw this earlier. Regardless good luck the rest of the way.
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herbshack. You did a crazy job here picking some nice dogs in Sept. I just looked at your thread today and wish I saw this earlier. Regardless good luck the rest of the way.
herbshack. You did a crazy job here picking some nice dogs in Sept. I just looked at your thread today and wish I saw this earlier. Regardless good luck the rest of the way.
CAP-IT, whether you followed or not, make sure to go back through and read some of the writeups. I like dogs off of a win in September...and the big key thing is this: Never make a late season bet going with your gut. For example, don't bank on a team to beat another team because "they need this win." You can pay sports betting services to give you crap writeups on games and ones that make you feel all warm and fuzzy, but here what all of those services have in common: they always crash in September and wind up hiding their late MLB season records behind whatever good is happening in Football.
Bottom line: The good bet in sports is always the gut twister. Lots of people haven't followed me because they thought the bets looked stupid.
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Quote Originally Posted by CAP-IT:
herbshack. You did a crazy job here picking some nice dogs in Sept. I just looked at your thread today and wish I saw this earlier. Regardless good luck the rest of the way.
CAP-IT, whether you followed or not, make sure to go back through and read some of the writeups. I like dogs off of a win in September...and the big key thing is this: Never make a late season bet going with your gut. For example, don't bank on a team to beat another team because "they need this win." You can pay sports betting services to give you crap writeups on games and ones that make you feel all warm and fuzzy, but here what all of those services have in common: they always crash in September and wind up hiding their late MLB season records behind whatever good is happening in Football.
Bottom line: The good bet in sports is always the gut twister. Lots of people haven't followed me because they thought the bets looked stupid.
All of those lines got better. You are definately going against the public! Good luck!
That's the way to do it this time of year. I've studied MLB in depth. Since 2000, the public hasn't ever done worse than 54% on consensus; however, that actually a huge loss of roi. The bulk of this loss comes in the last month of regular season and in the first month. People love to bet on "good" teams in September, but in reality the winners never really seem to make sense.
What is funny is the the BIG chalk that kills everyone right now becomes a winner in April! The lines makers rake HARD with MLB. Each season plays out the same way perfectly for the books, and all they really do is tap on human emotion. Gotta make your picks without thinking too much.
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Quote Originally Posted by ringoboy:
All of those lines got better. You are definately going against the public! Good luck!
That's the way to do it this time of year. I've studied MLB in depth. Since 2000, the public hasn't ever done worse than 54% on consensus; however, that actually a huge loss of roi. The bulk of this loss comes in the last month of regular season and in the first month. People love to bet on "good" teams in September, but in reality the winners never really seem to make sense.
What is funny is the the BIG chalk that kills everyone right now becomes a winner in April! The lines makers rake HARD with MLB. Each season plays out the same way perfectly for the books, and all they really do is tap on human emotion. Gotta make your picks without thinking too much.
You're one of few who can intelligently assess the supporting framework of the 'play' underneath the plays on the board; it's quite the pleasure to read your reads on the action and your account thereof.
1
Herballs,
You're one of few who can intelligently assess the supporting framework of the 'play' underneath the plays on the board; it's quite the pleasure to read your reads on the action and your account thereof.
Thanks Pendo. I don't mind giving out my plays, but the dark dirty secrets have to stay in the house. I want it to be bread and butter for at least another couple years :)
It doesn't really matter though if I share what I know: the biggest secret in gambling is that you have to intelligently take the play that stinks and makes you feel ill. As human nature will have it, I'll be coattailing the bookies and linesmakers for many many years (and already have been).
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Thanks Pendo. I don't mind giving out my plays, but the dark dirty secrets have to stay in the house. I want it to be bread and butter for at least another couple years :)
It doesn't really matter though if I share what I know: the biggest secret in gambling is that you have to intelligently take the play that stinks and makes you feel ill. As human nature will have it, I'll be coattailing the bookies and linesmakers for many many years (and already have been).
I like to take good home dogs off of 2 or more wins in their last three facing another good team. These dogs usually hit above 50% in both late regular season and in the playoffs; they actually do well most of the regular season too! Go Oakland!
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For 10.2.2012:
#928 Oakland Athletics +133 ($153 to win $176.89)
over the Texas Rangers
I like to take good home dogs off of 2 or more wins in their last three facing another good team. These dogs usually hit above 50% in both late regular season and in the playoffs; they actually do well most of the regular season too! Go Oakland!
#928 Oakland Athletics +133 ($153 to win $176.89) WINNER!
over the Texas Rangers
I like to take good home dogs off of 2 or more wins in their last three facing another good team. These dogs usually hit above 50% in both late regular season and in the playoffs; they actually do well most of the regular season too! Go Oakland!
New Bankroll: +$4,861.73 (+21.54%/Units)
(from $4000)
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Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:
For 10.2.2012:
#928 Oakland Athletics +133 ($153 to win $176.89) WINNER!
over the Texas Rangers
I like to take good home dogs off of 2 or more wins in their last three facing another good team. These dogs usually hit above 50% in both late regular season and in the playoffs; they actually do well most of the regular season too! Go Oakland!
Is there something I'm missing? Why are the Orioles getting so much juice. I don't care, I'll take it.
Baltimore is 53-41 +25.07 units (+25.6% roi) this season against plus .500 teams. That's 28-22 +18.46 units (+36.9% roi) as road dogs (against +.500 teams)!
Not only that, but Baltimore is 14-3 +13.17 units (+67.8% roi) on 1+ day of rest. I trust Baltimore in the playoffs a whole lot more than I do Texas. I think the public is thinking: "the second time is a charm" and therein lies our value on this one.
Go O's!
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For 10.5.2012:
#903 Baltimore Orioles +184 ($68 to win $125.12)
over the Texas Rangers
Is there something I'm missing? Why are the Orioles getting so much juice. I don't care, I'll take it.
Baltimore is 53-41 +25.07 units (+25.6% roi) this season against plus .500 teams. That's 28-22 +18.46 units (+36.9% roi) as road dogs (against +.500 teams)!
Not only that, but Baltimore is 14-3 +13.17 units (+67.8% roi) on 1+ day of rest. I trust Baltimore in the playoffs a whole lot more than I do Texas. I think the public is thinking: "the second time is a charm" and therein lies our value on this one.
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