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September Dogs - Starting with $4k

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Participants:

Posts: 1630

herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 913

Posted: Aug. 15, 2017 - 12:19 PM ET #1151

Quote Originally Posted by Hoyasaxa:

No question you're sharp in picking, have good systems, and your current post on patience is excellent and unfortunately not to be used by most...but I'm surprised you don't understand why the Padres are such big dogs...

Vegas despite what some people think on this site does absolutely want even action so they can gain +10% safely...I have heard this confirmed by Vegas Bookmakers and ex-bookmakers recently on the new XM channel run by Brent Musberger..

So the Pads are so high because if they were truly what they should be at +150, you'd see huge ML bets in $ amounts by the Public on the Dodgers and put the books at huge risk..

Here you have a team that is clearly playing good baseball since May 1st but in a small market with no famous players against the Stud team of a lifetime, just blowing people out left and right..how could anyone take SD??

So, like you, I'll take the value any day and Sunday and we will be fine in the long run...they were leading last night..

You do remember the Patriots were 17 point dogs in 2001 vs 'the Greatest show on Turf Rams" right? Realizing they only lost by 7 to them earlier in the season, etc, etc That one worked out very nicely even if you just took the points but some wise guys took the ML too..

Sure, of course they want it. It rarely happens though.

The books make their own wagers all the time.

herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 913

Posted: Aug. 15, 2017 - 12:26 PM ET #1152

Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

Aug 14 9:40 pm

Astros - vs D-backs - Z. Greinke -R
Diamondbacks - Z. Greinke -R -1 +104
$372 to win $386.88

WINNER!

Current Bankroll: $12,292.74

from $4000 (+207.32 units)

At a new all time high after that win

Motherflickee

Veteran

Joined: Dec, 2007

Posts: 1257

Posted: Aug. 15, 2017 - 12:50 PM ET #1153

Pretty much went just how you said.

herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 913

Posted: Aug. 15, 2017 - 2:02 PM ET #1154

Today.....for the BIG CHEDDAH!

Aug 15 10:10 pm

White Sox - Mi. Gonzalez -R vs Dodgers - A. Wood -L
White Sox - Mi. Gonzalez -R +320

$127 to win $406.40

https://killersports.com/mlb/query?sdql=%283%3Eos%3Astarter%20earned%20runs%3E0%20and%203%3Eoss%3Astarter%20earned%20runs%3E0%20and%203%3Eop%3Aerrors%3E0%20and%202%3Eopp%3Aerrors%20and%20p%3Ahits%3E4%20and%2015%3Epp%3Ahits%3E2%29%20as%20%22A%20team%20that%20has%20been%20hitting%20well%20vs.%20a%20team%20starting%20a%20pitcher%20who%20got%201%20or%202%20runs%20L2%20starts%20and%20the%20team%20he%20is%20on%20pulled%20very%20few%20errors%20in%20their%20last%20two%20go%201209-1081%20%2B176.59%20units%20%2B6.5%25%20roi%22

Let's get that cheese

CrazyBettor1289

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2017

Posts: 99

Posted: Aug. 15, 2017 - 2:38 PM ET #1155

JBost77

Veteran

Joined: Jan, 2011

Posts: 4294

Posted: Aug. 15, 2017 - 2:41 PM ET #1156

Lets get it brother!

JROCK1966

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 8237

Posted: Aug. 15, 2017 - 2:49 PM ET #1157

Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

Today.....for the BIG CHEDDAH!

Aug 15 10:10 pm

White Sox - Mi. Gonzalez -R vs Dodgers - A. Wood -L
White Sox - Mi. Gonzalez -R +320

$127 to win $406.40

Let's get that cheese

Holy sh*t, where do you get your trends? Did you buy an IBM Watson or something? Regardless, very impressive and good luck!

newbie1

Prospect

Joined: May, 2017

Posts: 44

Posted: Aug. 15, 2017 - 3:06 PM ET #1158

Quote Originally Posted by JROCK1966:

Holy sh*t, where do you get your trends? Did you buy an IBM Watson or something? Regardless, very impressive and good luck!

I think they are from Sports Data Query Language (SDQL)

herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 913

Posted: Aug. 15, 2017 - 3:40 PM ET #1159

Quote Originally Posted by JROCK1966:

Holy sh*t, where do you get your trends? Did you buy an IBM Watson or something? Regardless, very impressive and good luck!

I'll write a book sometime. My good friend Joe Meyer at sportsdatabase.com facilitates this for the public with his sdql. I use a combination of that for quick lookups and my own offline databases I more thoroughly study.

I also make a point to shut my mouth and listen to people who know more about sports than I know I'll ever care to. That knowledge helps derive hypotheses I null or confirm on a level of about 2000 systems per sport.

OlDirtyBaztid

All-Star

Joined: Apr, 2017

Posts: 10645

Posted: Aug. 15, 2017 - 4:07 PM ET #1160

Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

i don't know if you're looking for a career transition or not, but with that kind of attitude you would be perfect for sales. no joke! lol

thanks for the hard work

No team is as good as it looks when winning nor are they as bad as they look when losing

JROCK1966

Captain

Joined: Oct, 2007

Posts: 8237

Posted: Aug. 15, 2017 - 6:30 PM ET #1161

Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

I'll write a book sometime. My good friend Joe Meyer at sportsdatabase.com facilitates this for the public with his sdql. I use a combination of that for quick lookups and my own offline databases I more thoroughly study.

I also make a point to shut my mouth and listen to people who know more about sports than I know I'll ever care to. That knowledge helps derive hypotheses I null or confirm on a level of about 2000 systems per sport.

Herb don't need no stinkin' IBM Watson....he is one!!

bojangles804

Prospect

Joined: Apr, 2017

Posts: 23

Posted: Aug. 15, 2017 - 10:19 PM ET #1162

I'm starting to wonder if Herb is Skynet lol

hit-and-run

Prospect

Joined: Jan, 2016

Posts: 326

Posted: Aug. 15, 2017 - 11:24 PM ET #1163

just start following

Hoyasaxa

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 5248

Posted: Aug. 15, 2017 - 11:57 PM ET #1164

well my microprocessor brother, I took your thinking and just slammed the Pale Hose for F5 and it cashed nicely...

Hope they finish it up for you! I was the guy on the Pads Sunday and we almost got that one...

Pitchers : Mi. Gonzalez - R - Must Pitch / A. Wood - L - Must Pitch

Sport / Period :	MLB Baseball / 1st 5 Innings
Selection :	Chicago White Sox	Time :	8/15/2017 7:10:01PM - (PST)
Line :	+305

LuckysDad713

Prospect

Joined: Jul, 2017

Posts: 77

Posted: Aug. 16, 2017 - 3:09 AM ET #1165

So I just found this thread and wow, I am impressed. So if I want to start following your system, do I have to use what you are betting? Anything else I should know?

Thanks for the help.

herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 913

Posted: Aug. 16, 2017 - 11:37 AM ET #1166

Lol. Thanks guys. Grats Hoyasaxa. What made you choose the F5 there over full regulation?

Hoyasaxa

Captain

Joined: Nov, 2008

Posts: 5248

Posted: Aug. 16, 2017 - 12:38 PM ET #1167

Quote Originally Posted by herbshack:

Lol. Thanks guys. Grats Hoyasaxa. What made you choose the F5 there over full regulation?

I saw the same odds and WS hit lefties well, so I thought they could get ahead early easier...catch them off guard...but you just needed a little more help-keep on going-it's a marathon!

herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 913

Posted: Aug. 16, 2017 - 2:13 PM ET #1168

That's interesting @hoasaxa

I appreciate that kind of thinking. My personal preference (and remember, there are always many ways to skin the cat) is either full regulation betting or live second half betting:

The reason: At least in recent history, I see more angles and less strain in my day to day efforts in capping the bullpen before starting pitchers and offenses...when something works for you, you can never absolutely sure why, and I'm not; however, I assume there's a value in allocating my time that way because the public generally doesn't put the proper weight into bullpen factors such as rested up differential (eg. how tired is a bullpen). Also weather: When I see that the forecast is subject to change from start time to about the 5th - 7th inning...say bad weather is supposed to sweep in mid game....a lot of people miss that and if you're betting a dog, anything that lays the groundwork for a more 50/50 proposition (anyone's game scenario), tie always goes to the dog.

herbshack

Rookie

Joined: Aug, 2010

Posts: 913

Posted: Aug. 16, 2017 - 3:27 PM ET #1169

I always liked this view:

https://images-na.ssl-images-amazon.com/images/I/31-PtC21LFL._SX355_.jpg

...other presidents have so often said the complete opposite. So many of us think that careful deliberation equates to procrastination.

Listen to your own mind and gut. You'll never regret a bet you could have won as much as an error you made where you lost!

For today a two team parlay:

Boston Red Sox -1RL(Vs. St. Louis Cardinals)

Kansas City Royals ML (Vs. Oakland Athletics)

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$190.50 to win $508.11

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*SYSTEM OF THE DAY:
A team in danger of falling back onto .500 off of a loss playing at the same site as the loss goes 524-437 +73.98 units. -Active to play on the Royals and Twins here!

Take the moneyline only here or the -0.75 Asian Handicap using our runline calculator (Runline Calculator here: https://procomputergambler.net/calculator.xlsx). This trend isn't worth anything for the runline isolating home favorites fyi: 107-187 -32.90 units. Again, moneyline only or -0.75RL for the Royals!

I think the Red Sox are the better wager here if you want to pick just one of the two. I would do Red Sox -1 or -0.75 Runline if you choose to do it that way.

Best of luck!