Cubs 1st5 RL(+100) *1.00
Roupp/Brown listed
Both pitchers are true ground ballers, and that's the biggest difference for me here.
Initially leaning to the under because of this, and it could still come through. I just don't want to pay -117 or -115 to go under 4.
The Cubs hit ground ballers at .258/.775, with a 129 sOPS+. Best in the NL.
They just saw a left handed Robbie Ray yesterday, who's a 50/50 guy but a traditional fly ball pitcher. He held them down.
The game before that, JT Ginn. A 50/50 guy, who'd they never seen. He smoked them. The Cubs 4 runs in the 9th was a miracle.
The game before that, Gage Jump. A rookie they've never seen before. A 50/50 guy slightly more of a fly ball guy. He was impressive, the Cubs were off timed vs this lefty rookie.
Point being, they are lined up to have a good game at the plate vs Roupp. A dude who is night and day split wise home vs away. Small sample sized history the Cubs have hit Roupp well in the past.
Ben Brown is the Cubs best pitcher, there's no question. Bullpen guy turned starter, this dude has pitched with purpose. If there's any guy to stop the bleeding from a pitching standpoint, it's this guy.
The Giants have hit ground ballers at .234/.623, with a sOPS+ of 84.
They rocked Cabrera yesterday, a dude coming off a blister. He throws hard and high and has been hanging his splitter all year.
They blasted Crow Coleman from the Brewers the game before. A fly ball pitcher.
The Cubs pen is also full of hard throwing fly ball pitchers.
If you had to guess who is the best fly ball pitcher hitting team is in the NL, would you have thought the Giants? It's no wonder that they have gone on a hitting explosion the last 2 games, with the weather favoring that aspect.
I've been fading the Cubs about 90% of the time it feels like, not here.
