RARE PLAY/OPPORTUNITY + WRITE UP

The problem with stepping out like this on the most obvious play imaginable (and Kyle Davies vs. the Red Sox offense in Fenway would certainly qualify as that) is that the advantage is so enormous for the Sox that they might not be able to get up for the game.  They might just show up at the park thinking that all they have to do is throw their gloves on the field and the Royals will surrender.  If we could count on the Red Sox giving their best (or close to their best) effort against Davies and the lowly Royals, then Boston every which way would probably be Lock City.  But this matchup feels like such a joke that I can't see the Sox playing with much intensity tonight, especially after the Mariners softened them up this weekend by laying down three times.  At any rate, the oddsmakers aren't complete idiots, and they already made sure that Boston backers would enjoy no value whatsoever on this game by opening Boston at a bloated -270. 

On the bright side, betting against Kyle Davies is just a fun thing to do.

The problem with stepping out like this on the most obvious play imaginable (and Kyle Davies vs. the Red Sox offense in Fenway would certainly qualify as that) is that the advantage is so enormous for the Sox that they might not be able to get up for the game.  They might just show up at the park thinking that all they have to do is throw their gloves on the field and the Royals will surrender.  If we could count on the Red Sox giving their best (or close to their best) effort against Davies and the lowly Royals, then Boston every which way would probably be Lock City.  But this matchup feels like such a joke that I can't see the Sox playing with much intensity tonight, especially after the Mariners softened them up this weekend by laying down three times.  At any rate, the oddsmakers aren't complete idiots, and they already made sure that Boston backers would enjoy no value whatsoever on this game by opening Boston at a bloated -270. 

On the bright side, betting against Kyle Davies is just a fun thing to do.

This is the game and match up I've been waiting to take advantage of & everything seems to be setting up perfectly.

SO.. HOW DO WE TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THIS OPPORTUNITY-

I see the most value in OVERS.  Actually, I can easily
see Boston covering this total on there own.  And, BOSTON
over 5.5.

The FIRST five innings.  We KNOW Davies is going to struggle.
It would be EXTREMELY unlucky to see him come out and throw
darts.  He has yet to do that this season, so why would he
ON THE ROAD VS THE #1 OFFENSE IN THE LEAUGE?  The answer is, simply, he WON'T. 

Well, this is a VERY rare play for me, but it is an amazing opportunitiy to capture a very large number of units on a single game.  Which also means its a risky play, because there is a CHANCE KC's Davies could show up.  This bet relies on him doing what he is good at, giving up runs & losing baseball games.  This has been a trend of his all season & now he faces the best of the best.  It will not change.