Posted:
#1
Hey Guys,
I don't post too much on here, but I feel I've done enough research on this series that I'd like to share it with you and you all make your own decisions afterwards. I'd love to hear your views on my stat analysis along with hearing yours.
Whereas Colby Lewis has been dominant at home, and yes a 3.41 era in Arlington is good believe it or not LOL. He is the best pitcher that no one has heard of and the Rays have not seen him EVER. 196 strikeouts fellas. Thats 7th in the AL, every player ahead of him has been an all star and look who's the 3 behind him... David Price, James Shields, Cliff Lee. Can we say strike out are gonna be a plenty in this series? =)
Also keep in mind when Cliff Lee gave up 6 ER @ Tampa not too long ago he was dealing with back and shoulder pain and he went 7 innings giving up 2 ER, then in top of the 8th Rangers take a 4-2 lead and Washington sends Lee out again and he gives up 4 runs. Had he taken Lee out and turned it over to Ogundo and Feliz then Lee's stat line would have looked a hell of a lot better that day and he might have even picked up the W.
Cliff Lee @ Tropicana 3-2 3.86 ERA
C.J Wilson to my knowledge has never started a game at Tropicana, he came out of the bullpen a few times last year. But as we know his counterpart James Shields has been an inconsistent gas can at times this year. So CJ can pitch and average game and still come out on top.
James Shields 4.53 ERA..... AT HOME. I drafted this guy high in my fantasy draft too.. what a letdown... anyways moving on...
CJ Wilson 2.91 ERA.... ON THE ROAD. I picked him up off waivers... just thought I'd throw that in haha.
If the Rangers score 4 runs on Tampa in game 1 they win, period. Now David Price giving up 4 runs? Not an easy task, but the Rangers bat .276 against lefties, whereas Tampa bats .242 I believe.
Career ERA vs Tampa:
CJ Wilson 2.45
Cliff Lee 2.87
Colby Lewis has never faced Tampa.
So here are my leans:
Rangers to win the Series +125 3 units
Rangers Action/Lee +120 3 units
Rangers/Rays 1st 5 under 3.5 -115 1 unit
Rangers Last 4 innings -120 2 units
Rangers/Rays Last 4 innings over 3 +110 2 units
(as soon as Lee and Price leave the game runs will go on the board, unless they both pitch a complete game, never know).
Hope this helps anyone that was on the fence about this series. Tampa has all the tools to win, and experience, but stats don't lie. Cliff Lee is a big game pitcher, CJ has been dominant at times, Colby Lewis is Mr. Cool and nothing seems to bother him, especially at home. And the Rangers offense? 4 runs per game they win this series. I'm sure Vlad's playoff experience is going to come in handy settling the boys down. He is a leader. Josh is an MVP, and Nelly is Mr. Clutch.
Good luck guys.
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