Posted:
#1
It's very easy to turn on your computer and look at these trends daily and notice things like this with just a quick look up and down any live odds/match-up page. But what many usually fail to do is further any research as to why this may have happened. Since Chris Young's injury the Arizona offense has actually averaged just 3.8rpg which is almost a whole run less per game as they were averaging 4.72rpg with him in the 11 games previous games to April 18th. Arizona is also 7-14 overall since April 18th as a team on the field losing 9 of those games at home. Starting to feel the importance of what Chris Young has meant to his teams success yet? OK now let's talk about those 12 overs that have hit inside of Chase Field. 7 of them were vs better hitting ball clubs= Stl(1x).287ba , Atl(3x).265ba, Phi(3x).257ba. Pittsburgh was the only team thus far to come to Chase Field and cash a couple under's in a 3 game span an we all know were their offense sits. The other 3 overs came in the 1st games of the season vs the same team that the Diamondbacks are facing tonight, the Giants. Except there will be no Pablo Sandoval this time around (5hits, 4rbi's & 1hr in that 3 game series). If you were wondering Chris Young had 5hits, 4rbi's & 1hr in that same series. Chris Young's replacement's (Parra & Pollack) have split time in center field since Young's absence are now a combined 33 for 133 (.248ba) 2hr's & 14rbi. A far cry from what Chris Young's 5hr's, 13rbi's and .410ba in just 39ab's. So with all this info now gathered your telling me that we know have the Giants who are only averaging 3.65rpg this season (#23) heading into town minus Kung-Fu and his .315ba and 5hr's & 15rbi's going against the D-Backs minus Young and his production and yet we are still seeing a total set at 9 when the average home set total this season has been 8.71. This is also rather funny that the number on tonight's game is considerably higher than the 3 games these 2 played earlier this season when we seen a 7, 8.5 & 8.5. So we take away Pablo & Young and we get a higher number. To me this is only what the betting market has created as Atlanta, Philly & St Louis kind of drove this number up higher than it should be IMO. Bumgarner is a GB pitcher as his career GB% is 46.5% and this years is even higher at 50.8%. That helps me avoid possible fly balls which tend to catch that Arizona air when the dome is open. It's also great news that Bumgarners opponent for tonight's game is Corbin whom is also been a ground ball heavy pitcher (even higher than Bumgarner) with a GB% of 56.7%. Both of these teams both bat worse vs lefties than they do righties so because of all this i'm going with this below...
Ari/SF u9(ev)5u(Bumgarner/Corbin)...
SF(-117)3u(Bumgarner/Corbin)...
This game reeks of 2-1 or 3-1 with Bumgarner having a big advantage.
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