I have been reading tons of articles about this for a month. Matchbook has Chris Carpenter -256 with the underdogs being Wainwright (+170) and Lincecum (+200). The writers in St. Louis have made it clear that they believe Wainwright should be the Cy Young and that they voted that way. This could hurt Carpenter as you can expect that the West Coast writers sided with Lincecum.
I have read numerous of articles of sports writers with Cy Young votes saying they had Lincecum first and either Carpenter or Wainwright second.
You can currently bet Carpenter to lose the Cy Young at +120 and there definitely seems to be some value in that.
Also keep in mind that Carpenter won the comeback player of the year award, not sure if that helps or hurts his cy young cause but something to consider (the award has only been around since 2005 and Cliff Lee is the only pitcher to win both in the same year - but of course normally top pitchers don't have a season they need to "comeback" from). The other drawback to Carpenter winning of course is that he missed a month of the season and thus completed less than 200 innings (you could also spin this as a positive loving as the numbers Carp put up in less innings and starts)
Here are the stat splits: Carpenter: 17-4, 2.24 era, 192.2 ip, 144 so Wainwright: 19-8, 2.63 era, 233 ip, 212 so Lincecum: 15-7, 2.48 era, 225 ip, 261 so
Who do you got and what do you think would be the best bet?
I have been reading tons of articles about this for a month. Matchbook has Chris Carpenter -256 with the underdogs being Wainwright (+170) and Lincecum (+200). The writers in St. Louis have made it clear that they believe Wainwright should be the Cy Young and that they voted that way. This could hurt Carpenter as you can expect that the West Coast writers sided with Lincecum.
I have read numerous of articles of sports writers with Cy Young votes saying they had Lincecum first and either Carpenter or Wainwright second.
You can currently bet Carpenter to lose the Cy Young at +120 and there definitely seems to be some value in that.
Also keep in mind that Carpenter won the comeback player of the year award, not sure if that helps or hurts his cy young cause but something to consider (the award has only been around since 2005 and Cliff Lee is the only pitcher to win both in the same year - but of course normally top pitchers don't have a season they need to "comeback" from). The other drawback to Carpenter winning of course is that he missed a month of the season and thus completed less than 200 innings (you could also spin this as a positive loving as the numbers Carp put up in less innings and starts)
Here are the stat splits: Carpenter: 17-4, 2.24 era, 192.2 ip, 144 so Wainwright: 19-8, 2.63 era, 233 ip, 212 so Lincecum: 15-7, 2.48 era, 225 ip, 261 so
Who do you got and what do you think would be the best bet?
Guys I have been following this award since May as I had a Lincecum +950 bet. Let me be the first to tell you that Wainright has NEXT TO NO SHOT. I am pretty confident he will fall a distant 3rd.
Unfortunately, the winner will not be Lincecum though. I have read articles from actual voters and Carpenter should be the winner.
Guys I have been following this award since May as I had a Lincecum +950 bet. Let me be the first to tell you that Wainright has NEXT TO NO SHOT. I am pretty confident he will fall a distant 3rd.
Unfortunately, the winner will not be Lincecum though. I have read articles from actual voters and Carpenter should be the winner.
From the tons of article I have read, Tim gets plenty of love from west coast reporters, the St. Louis writers for the most part have Wainwright over Carp and I have read East coast writers on Carpenter should be really close. ERA is a little tricky as well as a 2.20 ERA becomes a 2.60 ERA really quickly if the bullpen doesn't strand inherited runners. I like WHIP, IP, and KO to BB ratio and quality starts.
From the tons of article I have read, Tim gets plenty of love from west coast reporters, the St. Louis writers for the most part have Wainwright over Carp and I have read East coast writers on Carpenter should be really close. ERA is a little tricky as well as a 2.20 ERA becomes a 2.60 ERA really quickly if the bullpen doesn't strand inherited runners. I like WHIP, IP, and KO to BB ratio and quality starts.
From the tons of article I have read, Tim gets plenty of love from west coast reporters, the St. Louis writers for the most part have Wainwright over Carp and I have read East coast writers on Carpenter should be really close. ERA is a little tricky as well as a 2.20 ERA becomes a 2.60 ERA really quickly if the bullpen doesn't strand inherited runners. I like WHIP, IP, and KO to BB ratio and quality starts.
I'm curious about all the articles you have read. 99% of the articles posted online ARE NOT from actual Cy Young voters. The BBWAA consists of only 32 TOTAL voters. The guys you read online may vote for other baseball awards, but only a VERY select few vote for the actual BBWAA award and that is the only one that matters.
From the tons of article I have read, Tim gets plenty of love from west coast reporters, the St. Louis writers for the most part have Wainwright over Carp and I have read East coast writers on Carpenter should be really close. ERA is a little tricky as well as a 2.20 ERA becomes a 2.60 ERA really quickly if the bullpen doesn't strand inherited runners. I like WHIP, IP, and KO to BB ratio and quality starts.
I'm curious about all the articles you have read. 99% of the articles posted online ARE NOT from actual Cy Young voters. The BBWAA consists of only 32 TOTAL voters. The guys you read online may vote for other baseball awards, but only a VERY select few vote for the actual BBWAA award and that is the only one that matters.
Many of the articles I read were from writers who don't have a pick but said that they "knew" of someone who voted a certain way. The St. Louis local media says that the few with votes put Wainwright first. I also read one article from a west-coast writer that said he had a vote and put Tim first. Still researching, but gotta figure some voters wouldn't vote for someone who missed a month and didn't pitch even 200 innings and he already won an "award" comeback player of the year.
Many of the articles I read were from writers who don't have a pick but said that they "knew" of someone who voted a certain way. The St. Louis local media says that the few with votes put Wainwright first. I also read one article from a west-coast writer that said he had a vote and put Tim first. Still researching, but gotta figure some voters wouldn't vote for someone who missed a month and didn't pitch even 200 innings and he already won an "award" comeback player of the year.
Does anyone know exactly when the Cy Young announcement went public? I have seen Jon Heyman's twitter post at 1:42pm EST (press conference was 2pm) and supposedly Comcast reported it before then. Matchbook was still taking bets all the way until 2pm but it seems it was already public knowledge by then.
Does anyone know exactly when the Cy Young announcement went public? I have seen Jon Heyman's twitter post at 1:42pm EST (press conference was 2pm) and supposedly Comcast reported it before then. Matchbook was still taking bets all the way until 2pm but it seems it was already public knowledge by then.
How does Vegas usually handle something like this, if the news is "out" early like this? Thanks for any help.
Matchbook is people betting vs eachother, not vs a sportsbook so it's a completely different situation. Hell, they even kept the AL CY Young odds up until the next day. Sometimes just takes them a little longer to grade the wagers. A regular sportsbook/casino would have had the odds off the board long before the announcement.
How does Vegas usually handle something like this, if the news is "out" early like this? Thanks for any help.
Matchbook is people betting vs eachother, not vs a sportsbook so it's a completely different situation. Hell, they even kept the AL CY Young odds up until the next day. Sometimes just takes them a little longer to grade the wagers. A regular sportsbook/casino would have had the odds off the board long before the announcement.
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