Money Ball & KEYMetrics, Friday 10.04.12

Final Regular Season YTD 2012: 363-369-37, +245.87 Units, 6.72% ROI

Only play Wednesday was scratched, Marte did not go for the Tigers. Very proud of my call on Luis Mendoza though, great game scoring a 77.7 versus the MLB average of 67.3 in the KeyMetric system. Do not underrate this guy next year, he has made significant progress.

Leans 10.03.2012: 3-2. I hope that helped one or more folks make up their mind, no credit taken in the recap.

The Week: 4-8-1, -12.85 Units

All plays, unless otherwise noted, are for a FLAT 5 Units, Do NOT “add the juice”

I am waiting on some line development and umpire information and will be late making my picks, if any. How many of the boys on the board on calling this stuff “E-Z”? Never ceases to amaze me.

In the meantime I will try to answer a few questions left over from Wednesday. When the Rangers-A’s game got out of hand I fell asleep and it was a very long nap.

TheBuddah: Sagarin has some interesting slants on ratings and so forth. I occasionally look at his numbers and if there is a great variance from mine I try to determine why. The man has method to his system and a wealth of experience, his numbers have to be respected whether you use them or not

gopackgo88: What you suggest dips into the trend or angle form of handicapping and I seldom use much of that. KeyMetrics gives me a current performance expectation I find much more useful. Some of that stuff is interesting but I can not honor it without researching much deeper and time usually does not permit that. Example: A trend may be listed team A 17-4 last 21 versus team B. Well, if they are also 4-4 last 8, should the trend not be discontinued or disregarded entirely? Unfortunately since it is still an 81% trend most trend systems will still list it. Totally deceiving.

Donnie_Baseball: You have asked another question twice and never come back for the answer or posted a comment, but I will try once more. Are not metrics systems of measurement? Systems designed to give probable performance evaluations? KeyMetrics are exactly that, as opposed to SABRmetrics or more traditional methods of evaluation and probability.

BOL

I'm one of the very, very few who sees some value in the Braves today.......

FG, Cardinals-Braves Under 6.5, +113 (Lohse / Medlen)

Pitching, Braves. Offense, Cardinals. What could be more obvious? That being said I turn my attention to the two other teams playing today, Lohse + Medlen versus Cardinals O + Braves O. Now we have dominance, extreme dominance. The Cardinals have scored a median 5 earned runs per 9 over the course of their last 15 versus righty but those 15 chuckers, on average (68.1) are not in a class with Medlen (82), so the max we should expect out of the Cardinals versus Medlen and the Braves bullpen is 3 earned runs, and frankly I think that is very generous. The Braves face an even worse problem offensively as their median offensive era is only 3.44 per 9 versus a 68.9 strength of schedule, and Lohse is currently a 73.1. Jeff Kellogg behind the plate was the last bit of info I needed. 63.84% strike calls and 3.12:1 K/BB ratio.    

BOL