Money Ball 6.12

Quote Originally Posted by Theone324:

Fat Albert 

Frank the Bank, Shuck and Conger 3 for 6, 2 runs 1 rbi. Substitutions are not always negative.

ARE YOU INSINUATING AN UNDER PICK

Diamondbacks @ Dodgers (Corbin / Ryu)

Tied in my pitcher rankings at 72.4 and pitcher probability, both at #22.

Corbin: Personal 9-0, team 12-0. Quality starts; 11 by MLB standards, 10 by KE ratings. Ryu: Personal 6-2, team 8-4. Quality starts; 9 by MLB standards, 9 by KE ratings. Those are very similar numbers as are most when two very high quality guys bump heads, and Corbin is the overall ERA leader as well. A small difference can be found in starts in hitters parks, where I find Corbin with 6 and Ryu with 5, So, the pitching comparison is almost a dead heat with Corbin given most of the statistical edges but Ryu having Home field advantage.

Raw offensive stats give the Dodgers the edge in ba, obp, slg and ops. So, what about win probability? When I say “flip a coin” today I am kidding probably less than I have my entire life. If the stats pay off the Dodgers will squeak out a win, but we all know the Diamondbacks are explosive and can turn a 0-1 deficit into a 5-1 lead in a heartbeat.

What is NOT included in season-to-date stats is recent play ands momentum, that is why I keep my own figures, formulas and counsel on that type of thing. Do I really want games form early April to cloud my judgment on today’s game? Influence perhaps, but not distort. I start with the overall, for perspective.

Diamondbacks vs. last 15 lefty starters, 5 inning games. 6-7-2, oera 3.1 per 9

Dodgers vs. last 15 lefty starters, 5 inning games, 9-3-3, oera 3.2 per 9

A little more recently and guess what we do? We see a trend I actually care about, Don’t fall out of your chair!). Dbacks, 1-6, oera 2.7 per 9. Dodgers 3-2-1 oera 3.4

Looking at the last seven and establishing a trend shows the Diamondbacks slipping badly and the Dodgers barely holding their own.

You think one of these two outstanding ROY candidates might choke? Didn’t Corbin have that chance at Yankee Stadium (W) and Ryu at Chase Field (W)? Both of those are hitters parks and the opponents were respected teams. I don’t buy it.  

Diamondbacks-Dodgers FG Under 6.5, -118 (Corbin / Ryu)

I had F5 & FG both on the Angels play. This under I would rather play FG because the juice under 3.5 for F5 is very heavy and games that do go over tend to have early scoring. Right now both F5 and FG have gone over in the 5th so I suppose it is irrelevant, but there can be reasons to play 5 or 9 instead of both.