Money Ball 4.05.2013

Question

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101568922

If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

4.04.2013, 1-2-1, -3.25 Units, -16.3% ROI

YTD – 8-14-3, -21.44 Units, -17.2% ROI

9 Innings – 4/05/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays today are 5 units, per my strategy, 5 inning plays after the lines open

Yankees 5 (+160) 9 (+165) (Nova / Fister)

I can’t imagine Fister and the Tigers having a minimum 62.3% probability of winning this game so you can play for 61 cents on the dollar of risk and expect to make money in the long run. That is best versus worst type of odds and neither combination of pitcher + offense justifies that.

Astros 5 (+130) 9 (+136) (Straily / Peacock)

Peacock was another very impressive kid this spring and we have the Astros at home, an unfamiliar pitcher and park both for the A’s. The ‘stros aren’t going to be world beaters, we all know that, but they aren’t going to lose them all either.

Diamondbacks 5 (+115) 9 (+122) (Miley / Lohse)

On any given day Miley / Lohse is a tossup, just a matter of who has the better day. The edge here, and I think it is significant comes from Diamondbacks offense versus righty and Brewers offense versus lefty. If you try to look it up and don’t se it that is because my probability comes from my historical database and several Spring Training factors. In my opinion it is there and creates an even game. At a plus price we take 50-50 probability.

BOL

KeyElement · Answer

https://www.covers.com/postingforum/post01/showmessage.aspx?spt=27&sub=101568922

If you have never read my wagering strategy I encourage you to do so. Whether or not you adopt is it your choice.

MLB 2012 Regular Season: 363-369 +245.87 Units 6.72% ROI

MLB 2012 Playoffs: 12-9-3 +10.29 Units 14.6% ROI

MLB 2012 @ 1 unit per play = +51.23 Net Units

4.04.2013, 1-2-1, -3.25 Units, -16.3% ROI

YTD – 8-14-3, -21.44 Units, -17.2% ROI

9 Innings – 4/05/13 ALWAYS Specify Pitchers – NO action plays

All plays today are 5 units, per my strategy, 5 inning plays after the lines open

Yankees 5 (+160) 9 (+165) (Nova / Fister)

I can’t imagine Fister and the Tigers having a minimum 62.3% probability of winning this game so you can play for 61 cents on the dollar of risk and expect to make money in the long run. That is best versus worst type of odds and neither combination of pitcher + offense justifies that.

Astros 5 (+130) 9 (+136) (Straily / Peacock)

Peacock was another very impressive kid this spring and we have the Astros at home, an unfamiliar pitcher and park both for the A’s. The ‘stros aren’t going to be world beaters, we all know that, but they aren’t going to lose them all either.

Diamondbacks 5 (+115) 9 (+122) (Miley / Lohse)

On any given day Miley / Lohse is a tossup, just a matter of who has the better day. The edge here, and I think it is significant comes from Diamondbacks offense versus righty and Brewers offense versus lefty. If you try to look it up and don’t se it that is because my probability comes from my historical database and several Spring Training factors. In my opinion it is there and creates an even game. At a plus price we take 50-50 probability.

BOL

Ktrain · Answer

BOL Key

KeyElement · Answer

Julespussy: Regarding your last question yesterday. Very close to both with Cleveland. Out of the gate good pitching has sustained them but the bats have not been a disappointment at all. I just need a little more database input and I will start calling totals. BOL

jbowl70 · Answer

Did you see Loshe&#x27;s numbers against Arizona last year ? .77 era and Miley was lit up by the Brewers twice .. Just some food for thought

Mcmanus · Answer

Good Luck

shimmersun · Answer

BOL!

majcichov · Answer

YANKEES

iangm · Answer

Like the risk on NYY

ScottomonZ · Answer

I always enjoy your input Element!I&#x27;m with you on the Astros mainly because Straily should not be laying that kind of juice on the road.  But just FYI...the A&#x27;s know Peacock...he pitched with them last year.

Denson7 · Answer

Bol

KeyElement · Answer

That may be the operative word. Not against their hitters, and he was only around for a cup of coffee, That may give the catcher a little background but how valuable is that? He made the rotation with the Astros by being far better in the Grapefruit League this spring, while the A&#x27;s were tuning up in the Cactus League. I hardly see any edge there at all for A&#x27;s hitters. JMHO.

alekomtz · Answer

sorry for this question, but you play yankees first 5 innings 5 units, and yankees the whole game 5 units right?

KeyElement · Answer

Yes

capskip · Answer

Best of Luck today buddy....

Baby_BA · Answer

GL

Jose_Reyes · Answer

Good luck key

JEG53 · Answer

Great pitching change by that worthless Yankee Mgr.,the starter still had the lead and hitting Cabera isn't the worse thing to do,now if Nova was hurt I take it back,but he could of stayed in and do what that Lefty did,plus I think Fielder has good #s against lefthanders,esp.ones in that guys class.

KeyElement · Answer

I watched the whole sequence JEG and saw it like this:&#xD;&#xA;Dumb move #1 - Nova, giving up a walk when you have a lead&#xD;&#xA;Dumb move #2 - Nova, hitting Cabrera with one out to go&#xD;&#xA;Dumb move #3 - Fielder swinging at a pitch up and out of the zone, frankly it was a sucker pitch and he fell for it.&#xD;&#xA;Getting a 3 run blast on a pitchers pitch is phenomenal good luck and sh1t like that will happen, but apparently Nova forgot how to pitch with a lead. Force the opposition to hit, no free passes. He gets the loss, and he EARNED it.

Money Ball 4.05.2013

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