Comment: What a beautiful day the Lord has given us. Every day is beautiful but it is especially nice to reach a point with no day time games, all evening. More time to ponder, compliment, bash, cajole whatever we feel like doing. Let’s make the most of it.
Comment: If you like a play, post it on the board, and 9 out of ten respondents agree with you, does it make you feel confident? Bad news my friends. The Covers MLB Forum is as public as public can get. The folks that agree with you are the same ones, or same type, that are betting that pick and driving the line against you. Since 80% of the public will have a losing year and 95% over the long haul, why do you want their agreement and support on your picks? Some of the most popular threads here or on any other forum are just people supporting the publics misconceptions, just telling them what they want to hear. Now, since I have no intention of “going tout” and have no need of ego support, guess what? I am free to tell the truth of what my numbers say and what my personal experience of 40 years has taught me. It is a great feeling, and I hope you enjoy and respect where it is coming from whether you agree or not.
Astros Rangers Under: Never bet unders at Arlington right? Line makers are not stupid and they do not post numbers by accident. They know exactly how the public feels about both the Ballpark in Arlington and the Texas Rangers offense. Somewhere on this board today someone will post “4? You gotta be kidding me, the Rangers will clear that by themselves”. Wait just a minute. I will buy the concept that the Astros probably can not score at all if Darvish has his usual stuff, so I will concede a 0 there. But where are the Rangers going to get 4? Thus far they are 0-4-2 versus right handed starters in the 5 inning game and have a miniscule 0.68 offensive era. Last year they finished the season with a 34.1 rating in my system. So far, in six games they have exceeded that number only once and their rating has dropped to 29.8. Where are the Choo and Fielder lovers now?
White Sox -160: No doubt someone thinks the Indians are a heck of “value” at +150, but we examine the evidence don’t we? Last year the best categorical percentage of wins in MLB was 64%, posted by the Indians versus left handed starters, BUT; what goes around comes around and some exceptional numbers just have to return to the median, or close to it. Thus far in 2014 the Tribe is 0-2-2 in the 5 inning game versus lefty and has established a 1.44 offensive era versus Kazmir, Stults, Erlin and Danks. None of those guys are better than Sale and only Kazmir can even be considered in the same breath. Danks did have one tough inning last night but did survive for the win, thanks to the performance of his offense versus the highly regarded Salazar. Now they get to face Sale, one of the best lefties in the game and a guy they defeated 4 times last year (trend followers must love that). A couple of those losses could have been salvaged, or at least less ugly, but the Sox were lousy with run support and Sale paid the price. Different year, different story. This years version of the Sox versus righty is 4-3-1 in the 5 inning game with an offensive era of 5.2.
Dodgers -112: God bless the Diamondbacks for winning just enough to get some public faith back behind them. That, coupled with the almighty “home field advantage” gets us a very nice price in a game I compute they have less than a 46% chance of winning. Ryu over McCarthy is worth 35 cents in line value alone and the Dodgers record of 5-2-1, 4.84 oera is plenty for the Diamondbacks 2-3, 2.08 oera.
A’s-Mariners OVER 6.5: My first 9 inning play of the year so you know my confidence level is high. It is not unusual to see me play unders for 5 innings and overs for 9, which I am doing today. Only starting pitchers and no O.T. are good for unders, while with an over we want all possible innings available, since they may be necessary to get up and over. There are good 5 inning overs and 9 inning unders, but not as often, at least not imho. Just like with unders in Texas, the public hates the idea of an over in Seattle. Amen, so be it. “With Felix on the bump, are you crazy?” Maybe, but let me state my case. Felix is a “Top Gun”, Milone is not, and Mariners come at the lefty with a perfect 4-0 record and a 7.29 oera. Even Felix is vulnerable as the A’s are 6-1-1 with a 6.38 oera. All comparisons are by the usual versus lefty or righty component of my database. With offensive power like this available maybe it should go under, so someone (not myself) can post “It was fixed”. But that won’t happen, because public perception is always in favor of the under in Seattle.
BOL KEY GREAT WRITE UP BROTHER!!!
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