MLB Tuesday-Wednesday Playoff Picture

Question

10/01/17 142-176-11, RoR &#x2013;9.27% (vs 11/10 odds 47.5%) End of regular season. Good riddance. CLOSEDMLB Wild Card Play-insTwins-Yankees: No play. The game involves too much explosive potential. On paper, the Yankees should crush the Twins, but the line reflects that and the game is not played on paper. The Twins played well in their own division, but KC, Detroit and Chicago all imploded. They also did very well in Interleague play, but that is no surprise either, considering the A.L. went 160-140 in Interleague play this season. The Twins could not post a winning record versus either the East or West in the A.L. What makes them dangerous in this game is Santana. They went 19-14 in his starts and that is at least comparable with the Yankees 20-11 when Severino takes the ball. The total is very shaky. I get as low as 5 and as high as 9.5, which just happens to middle the number 7.5 posted by the books. Long story short; this is a good game to watch, but he wagering angle is pass. Rockies &#x2B;161, Gray / GreinkeThere is just way too much love out there for the D-bax. John Gray has already defeated them twice this year, at Chase Field. There is no guarantee Zack Greinke will be in top form and righties are a significantly tougher problem for the D-bax than are lefties.  That being said, I will also play&#x2026;&#x2026;Rockies-Diamondbacks, Under 8.5, &#x2B;107, Gray / GreinkeMLB playoff games are all about underdogs and unders. There are no more weak little sisters to beat up on. These two guys are 19-28 over/under and both will be well prepped for this one. Both have high K/BB ratios, GB/FB ratios and neither surrenders a full HR per game. Their ratios are truly outstanding when you consider Coors and Chase Fields as their home parks. I wish we knew the HP umpire, but MLB assigns top crews only to the playoffs and guys with abnormally high or low numbers usually do not make the cut. One final opinion: It would be worse for the playoff picture if either the Twins or Rockies win. Neither has the pitching to compete any further and the lines will reflect that, making more decisions like Twins-Yankees necessary. Lines of -200 or more are no fun in the playoffs.BOL

KeyElement · Answer

10/01/17 142-176-11, RoR &#x2013;9.27% (vs 11/10 odds 47.5%) End of regular season. Good riddance. CLOSEDMLB Wild Card Play-insTwins-Yankees: No play. The game involves too much explosive potential. On paper, the Yankees should crush the Twins, but the line reflects that and the game is not played on paper. The Twins played well in their own division, but KC, Detroit and Chicago all imploded. They also did very well in Interleague play, but that is no surprise either, considering the A.L. went 160-140 in Interleague play this season. The Twins could not post a winning record versus either the East or West in the A.L. What makes them dangerous in this game is Santana. They went 19-14 in his starts and that is at least comparable with the Yankees 20-11 when Severino takes the ball. The total is very shaky. I get as low as 5 and as high as 9.5, which just happens to middle the number 7.5 posted by the books. Long story short; this is a good game to watch, but he wagering angle is pass. Rockies &#x2B;161, Gray / GreinkeThere is just way too much love out there for the D-bax. John Gray has already defeated them twice this year, at Chase Field. There is no guarantee Zack Greinke will be in top form and righties are a significantly tougher problem for the D-bax than are lefties.  That being said, I will also play&#x2026;&#x2026;Rockies-Diamondbacks, Under 8.5, &#x2B;107, Gray / GreinkeMLB playoff games are all about underdogs and unders. There are no more weak little sisters to beat up on. These two guys are 19-28 over/under and both will be well prepped for this one. Both have high K/BB ratios, GB/FB ratios and neither surrenders a full HR per game. Their ratios are truly outstanding when you consider Coors and Chase Fields as their home parks. I wish we knew the HP umpire, but MLB assigns top crews only to the playoffs and guys with abnormally high or low numbers usually do not make the cut. One final opinion: It would be worse for the playoff picture if either the Twins or Rockies win. Neither has the pitching to compete any further and the lines will reflect that, making more decisions like Twins-Yankees necessary. Lines of -200 or more are no fun in the playoffs.BOL

mgar18 · Answer

What is your confidence level 1-10, on the Rockies??

Pendo · Answer

^^^ Very professional and vey well thought-out analysis. ^^^

undermysac · Answer

Completely agree with that last paragraph.If the Rox do make it though...I&#x27;d be inclined to bet them at Coors, at &#x2B; odds.Best of luck tomorrow

LABOOKIE · Answer

BOL KEY

dcgmt · Answer

GL Key

tuck321 · Answer

Clear lean opposite so far

KeyElement · Answer

5.1, because I have computed a 51% probability of a Rockies win. It is the ridiculous odds that make it a playable game. At &#x2B;161 your break even point is only 38.3% probability. An 11.8% edge versus the line is truly sweet.

backdooor_cover · Answer

I took the Twins &#x2B;2.5 @-160.  this is a hard game to cap.  Tomorrow under for sure!!

straight_cash · Answer

Good luck in the playoffs Key

KeyElement · Answer

Glad we agree on that anyway. Tonight&#x27;s game I am just a viewer though, won&#x27;t touch it. BOL

KeyElement · Answer

Nap time. Cya for the game tonight BOL

mgar18 · Answer

My big bet for the wildcard is Diamondbacks ML. I don&#x27;t see a chance in hell that Rockies win this game. The Twins have a better chance of winning tonight than the Rockies do..

Rauchy76 · Answer

Please enlighten us as to your train of thought. There&#x27;s always a better than "chance in hell" a dog wins in a one-and-done scenario in a game that was always meant to be played in series&#x27;.  I am genuinely curious as to why you&#x27;re obviously positive that D&#x27;backs win running away in this spot.

barneybeans · Answer

Smart to pass on the NYY game tonight.I like COL tomorrow and have them (so far) at a 52% if it were a regualr season game. What kills me in the Wild Card games (and the post season in general) is that it is only one game (or a few more) so there is no time to regress if you lose. I know I shouldn&#x27;t think that way but....

barneybeans · Answer

Still the best avatar, JFK with his signature petit Upmann. Gotta love it.https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DDsC-BNPb90

themanfromLA · Answer

never comment, always view your posts. but i think greinke tomorrow will get it done. of course you're 10000% correct there is a TON of love for the Backs but the way Greinke has pitched at home and with his familiarity of the Rockies lineup i have to side with him personally or make a no play. add to that JD Martinez and i think it's gonna be tough for Gray.

i do think the game will be low scoring perhaps a 7 run combined total even though both teams have more than enough hitting to each reach that total on their own. lastly, the Diamondbacks have pretty much OWNED the Rockies at home in this series though I think Greinke isn't stellar against them at Chase. i know the stakes are higher in the playoffs but that's just my angle.

either way good luck i'm a big fan of yours and decided to jump out of the shadows and into the limelight to tell you that.

iceman67 · Answer

I have the Twins/NYY game @ NYY -140.. Santana has the edge in many ways over Severino in this matchup... He's a full run better than Sev when he throw the first pitch of the game, and their other Home/Away splits fall the same way.

I'm all over the Twinkies 1st 5 @ +225 & +.5 @ 125ish..... also laying a run full game for a whopping +370ish...

GL to you all

RamsLA · Answer

BOL KEY

KeyElement · Answer

All comments, respectfully and tastefully submitted are appreciated. Apparently the immature children have not found their way back yet.

If I might elaborate a little I would say there is (and always has been) too much of the "this team is better than that team" concept on Covers. I don't dispute that if we discuss the various merits of "teams" over an extended period of time. A week, a month or a season does give us a read on overall quality, but;

The power rating and probability of a team changes every day, due to the greatest factor involved, the pitching. According to Covers the Rockies are 13-7 when Gray takes the ball, 65%, and the D-bax are 22-10 when Greinke does, 68.7%. That is pretty slim, but does indicate BOTH are winners and should lock the game up in a pitcher's duel.

My personal data-base and computations give Gray a slightly higher reading for quality starts and effectiveness than Greinke, simply because my ratings are not based strictly on raw stats, but are graded based on strength of the opponent.

The same is true of my offensive computations. The same stats will give a higher rating for facing Max Scherzer than facing Matt Cain. So, when I compute offensive probability I again get a slightly higher reading for the Rockies.

Strength of schedule does matter, and I prefer my method to any method based on raw stats, including SABRmetrics.

No method is able to produce 100% winners, it simply is not possible, but determining true probability is possible and true probability versus proffered odds is what gives us line value.

Individual game wagers are dependent on today's starters and available bullpens, plus offensive potential, not overall team performance for the entire season

JMHO, and to each his own, Your money, your choice.

KeyElement · Answer

I made Severino -222 and the line, &#x2B; or - a little has hovered in that range most of the day. No argument here.

KeyElement · Answer

I thank you, especially for stating your case like a gentleman.

backdooor_cover · Answer

Keep in mind this to be true.  If you meet someone that is able to produce a system that is close to 100%, say even 90%, I will guarantee you that person is making lines and spreads and working for the books.  If and when someone like that comes around, I guarantee the books are paying that person a large enough salary to work for them rather than being in here giving out free picks.Which is why it is pathetic that people can come in here and bash someone for giving out their free pick that they think is a winner.  Rather why I only post my picks in Keys thread is because it has been a thread for many years before he even started this thread, that we can come together and help each other out.For us low, no name, pathetic handicappers that we are, at least we try to come up with something that hopefully can bring us close to 60% success and allow us to be on winning side of betting.  People need to wake up and take responsibility for their bets rather than blaming others for their losses.

KeyElement · Answer

In a sense, the books are paying for expertise, although noone is anywhere close to 90%. The lines are opened to top bettors before the public sees them. Those people poke holes in the line with their bets before it opens to the public. It costs the books some money, but it adjusts the lines where the books line-makers were off a little, and that is what balances the books and guarantees a profit. Successful books do not gamble, they broker.

Streakcash · Answer

Greinke 15-1 en casa. Greinke $$$$$$ el mejor.pitcher

MLB Tuesday-Wednesday Playoff Picture

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