MLB TODAY PLAYS (10/4)

YTD (MLB PLAYOFFS):  5-5-1 (BIG PLAY!!!: 2-2)

Not going to vent about the FH UNDER in the NYY/BOS game b/c I was deciding between FG and FH and obviously went with the option that pushed.  A day after I watched Teoscar Hernandez commit an error to lose me my FH play, I watched Nathaniel Lowe more or less do the same.  Errors have been frustrating all year costing me UNDERS but I'm sure I'm "preaching to the choir".

A lot of handicappers been pretty strong out the gate so definitely do your research on these plays.  One thing to note is that over the past couple of years, the team that has won the first game of the series has gone on to win a majority of the time.  Even more telling, the team that has won the HR battle has gone on to advance over 90% of the time!  And, the teams that have had the byes have not fared especially well overall though last year the playing field was more even.  So think about those things b/c it seems to have become commonplace.

Here is what I am backing today...

MILWAUKEE (-140):  I realize everyone is on this game but for me the reasoning lies completely in the pitching matchup.  Freddy Peralta has not only been sublime vs. the Cubs this year (3-1 with a 3 ERA I believe), but has been pretty good career wise.  Furthermore, he has been unreal during day games and at home, both situation which we find ourselves in today.  On the other side of things, Matthew Boyd has NOT been great vs. the Brewers neither this year nor lifetime.  His day game splits are pretty impressive though he is far better at home than on the road.  He has bee good in the playoffs and that's what is keeping me from taking this -1.5 and the generous +155 payback.  I still firmly believe the Cubs have issues scoring and while very tempted to play this UNDER, I prefer to just back Fastball Freddy as the Cubs take loads of swings and misses and the Brewers bullpen has been quite awesome.

KEVIN GAUSMAN OVER 6.5 STRIKEOUTS...BIG PLAY!!!:  Well, tread carefully this is my first prop but I think one that has a seriously good chance of cashing.  Not only has Kevin Gausman done well historically vs. the Yankees, but he's been on quite a good run of late both with quality starts and K's.  He faces a really great lineup with the Yankees but they tend to strikeout over 7 times/game and Gausman is a strikeout pitcher.  Add to that, the Blue Jays bullpen has not exactly been shut down so I can see them extending him a bit here (if he's pitching well obviously) as I'm sure they realize the importance of winning the first game and keeping the home field advantage against a very familiar foe.

I am going to come back a bit later with the other plays.  Seriously loving the Dodgers these days as I don't think the Phillies were playing their best baseball at the end of the year.  But Christopher Sanchez has been hard to beat, even harder in Philly, and I think the Dodgers are heavily weighted with Ohtani on the bump.  Plus, the Phillies have done really well vs. the Dodgers who were not great on the road.  Potential under there.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all..

LA 

I actually played Freddy Peralta 7+ strikeouts +118.

@Cranky_Hank

I'll tail I'm not some sort of stalwart here and I feel like you have seen the Brewers enough (as have I) to confidently play that.  Freddy should get over that IF he stays in the game for 6 innings, which he should.  I'm not going to even perpetuate and think the Cubs will score more than 2 today if that.  Being a strikeout pitcher and with the Cubs lineup free swinging that's a solid prop 

I'm not sure if it's lucky or blind but I got Peralta OVER 6.5 K's at +120 

Dang it.  My site doesn’t have strikeouts props.  ?? 

@LAGameofInches

 About the same bet.  $2 better!!  

@Cranky_Hank

Should have listened to my gut and played this at -1.5.  So now getting the Peralta prop would be even more ideal 

I'm going to add two plays I can't stop going back to...

UNDER 8 (NYY/TOR) -105:  I said it above with Gausman but I really like this spot for him and on the reverse side Gil has been pitching really well of late and I don't see that letting up here.  Add to that Bo Bichette is still not in the lineup, a Blue Jays lineup that has much less firepower with him out of it.  I feel like a lot of it will lie in the arm of Gil who, if he has his stuff, should limit runs.  I again took a glance at the F5 due to the bullpen ineptness but I think this game stays under what I feel is an inflated total.  But the only reason it's not a big play is late inning arms on both of these sides.

TORONTO (-110)...BIG PLAY!!!:  I mean I feel like this is just the right side, with value and a Blue Jays team that has gone 7-3 agains the Yankees over the past 10.  I do think it's nervy being a playoff game and the Rogers Center is going to be very much alive and in to it.  In fact, the Blue Jays are Canada's team and I think the magnitude of that is enough to keep players focused on the task at hand.  It's hard for teams to get up to the level needed in the playoffs and that's why home field is so critical.  I know I'm neck deep in this game but I just feel like the Blue Jays will get to the Yankees bullpen if it's a close game and even though they lack the big names, their lineup is very strong and their bullpen a bit better than New York's.  Oh, and then there's Gausman who I'm going fully in on today.  Love this play, though I'm guessing the public will think otherwise. 

Let's see how these play out.  Have my eyes on the later games but one step at a time.  As always, tail or fade, good luck to all...

GL  on your plays props to you @LAGameofInches 

@LAGameofInches

  Brewers are like your most comfortable pair of shoes!  

(Should have bought 3 pairs of these!)

@Cranky_Hank

Yes it's incredible and the Rockies were like those really old ones you just don't want to throw away.  Both were big cash cows.

@LAGameofInches

@LAGameofInches

[Quote: Originally Posted by LAGameofInches]I'm going to add two plays I can't stop going back to... UNDER 8 (NYY/TOR) -105:  I said it above with Gausman but I really like this spot for him and on the reverse side Gil has been pitching really well of late and I don't see that letting up here.  Add to that Bo Bichette is still not in the lineup, a Blue Jays lineup that has much less firepower with him out of it.  I feel like a lot of it will lie in the arm of Gil who, if he has his stuff, should limit runs.  I again took a glance at the F5 due to the bullpen ineptness but I think this game stays under what I feel is an inflated total.  But the only reason it's not a big play is late inning arms on both of these sides. 

I mean what is wrong with my gut/mind connection?!  Gausman pitched great I'm not a props guy so that will most likely be my last one but he got too many guys out swinging early.  Which was not a problem for the Blue Jays play.  But I found myself again shaking my head at how bad the Yankees bullpen arms are and I should have listened to my own advice.

Was going to post a play on the Phillies but I really just don't like them, a personal thing, so I laid off.  I'm going to be back in a bit with a big play on the late game.  Hope everyone has had a profitable day, lots of sports going simultaneously.

I went with UNDER FH 4 (DET/SEA)...both teams have strong starters and I think a lot of small hitting on the side of Detroit. I expect the Mariners to win but I think this game will remain close and the FH has been very good in these situations for both starters.