YTD (MLB PLAYOFFS): 17-13-1 (BIG PLAY!!!: 5-5)
So it came to my attention in the last thread that people don't like when I celebrate winning games so they come back and troll me when I lose games. Pretty certain I also discuss losses and those people "calling me out" (which is funny because I should be just happy I won and made people money) should try and post plays themselves. I don't win every game but to revel when I lose is really, really low. I never do that to other people and have tailed guys that have actually lost me quite a bit of coin. Anyways, just thought there is no reason for any of that...you don't like me, don't visit my thread. It's that simple. Now onto the real substance of the thread....
My first play is really the same strategy that has made a lot of us money in the second half of the year, go OVER the FH whenever it is 4 or lower. That was working well in the regular season and became a bit more dicey later in the year when teams started to get eliminated. But today we have two teams that have AVERAGED over 4 runs a game in the first inning!. The pick hit yesterday and I am pretty confident it will hit today as well.
OVER 3.5 FH (MIL/CHC) -130...BIG PLAY!!!: Again, I have played this for most the year, with guys like Skenes on the bump, so there is little to no way I won't play it tonight, especially after it cashed yesterday. Matt Boyd has been really great at home but better during the day vs. night, and has NOT been good of late. And "of late" is the past month or so. Freddie Peralta on the other hand, is far better at home than on the road and the Cubs have seen him enough to potentially get some early runs off of him. I DO like the Brewers tonight and that might also become a play as I think they are the far superior team and even had a real chance to close it out last night. The Cubs bullpen arms have been worn down so if Boyd had early troubles, I like my chances agains their bullpen. But this is a play on both teams potentially able to score and the Cubs know for them to keep this series going, they not only need to win, they need to score early and often.
UNDER 4 FH (PHI/LAD):. Another FH play and I truly believe had that error not occurred by Pages in the 4th, that BIG PLAY last night would have at worst pushed. I'm going to back the Dodgers to finish the Phillies off but I think the pearl is in the early innings total as I just see little way that Sanchez doesn't lock in. Which means, I am expecting Tyler Glasnow to pitch like he has been of late and to throw away his pretty forgettable playoff numbers. This is a mid-afternoon game in LA and so the weather will be nice with some shadows to the hitters. Sanchez was VERY good this year in day games and for that reason I am confident this can stay under a pretty low FH total.
I'm going to post this then assess some other angles. I still have the cheeky DETROIT TO WIN THE SERIES (+245) from yesterday so hopefully you guys tailed that reasoning as we now have Skubal at +245 for the close out game tomorrow. I'll be back shortly but, as always, tail or fade, good luck to all...
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