MLB – 2016
37-35, $ +977.57, +6.8% RoR
5/12 Flat $200.00
Dodgers -245, Colon/Kershaw
You are only nuts to lay -245 if you intend to “add the juice” and have
a much more sizable chunk of your bankroll out there than you would really like
to. But what that does is make the return, the profit, the target of the
investment. If you flat play you have no more risk out there than you normally
would and stand a very high probability of earning 40% on your “investment” in
a matter of about 3 hours. The fear dissipates,
you win or you lose, just like all bets, but there is no disproportionate
damage to your bankroll because you took additional risk to achieve a target
profit. Amateurs, trained by their daddies, uncles, older brothers, buddies,
and the gambling world will never understand this. I know for sure, because I
and others have been trying to get it across for years. There exists, nowhere
in the known universe, a professional, mathematical proof that adding the juice
is to the bettor’s advantage. A bookie will never try to talk you out of it,
and that should tell you something right there.
Kershaw may try to exceed Scherzer’s grand performance of last night
only one day later, and the Mets are a prime candidate to help him out. For all
the winning they do the Mets are one of the worst lefty hitting teams in
baseball, and show no signs of turning it around, ala Red Sox. They are 3-3 in the standings, which looks
OK, until you realize they got the 3 wins with pitching and none had anything
to do with offense. They have scored a total of 7 earned runs in 35.1 innings
versus the 6 lefties they have faced. That is a pathetic 1.78 oera per 9
innings and they are going to pit that versus Kershaw in a pitcher’s and
lefties park? Gimme a break.
BOL 
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