Look at these pitching match-ups today!

Cueto has been good as of late but no run support... Hopefully today is the day the reds come out shining i like braves rl close game could go eitherway love all your other games

I'd rethink the Reds/Brewers game...

Here is what I have:

Balance:  +$1070.55

MLB record: 12-14

The Reds blew a 3 run lead yesterday in the 9th inning and the fans are feeling the season is over.  I'm not sure Cueto feels that way. Cueto is today's starting pitcher for the Reds and can be expected to pitch 7 strong innings, possibly 8, giving up only 2 runs. Marcum has been a hard luck pitcher of late, and he's 3 games removed from the left hip flexor injury.  Marcum will have to pitch the game of the year if he expects to be leading in the 7th. The evidence shows that Cueto can pitch against tough opponents ; 8 innings giving up 1 run at St. Louis in his last outing; and on 6/22 only one run over 7 innings against the Yankee lineup.  He's never been banged up for a big inning all year and his worst outing he actually went 5 complete innings. So, that brings us to the Brewer offense. I think the Brewers have feasted on bad pitching lately. I don't see Kotsay, for example going deep on Cueto. Kotsay may go 0-4. After MgGehee's homerun 2 days ago, he's been hitless I think. Weeks has been playing over his head the last couple of days to keep the Brewers afloat. I'm hearing from ESPN that Braun is expected to play tonight.  Now if Ryan Braun decides to play will the Brewers win?  Maybe. But you're counting on Braun playing, and hitting clutch in his first game back from the injury. I'd actually favor Cueto slightly here.  

Reds to Win ; RISK  $240.92  to win $229.45

Sorry, but I'm trying to see if any of this makes sense.

This whole BABIP which means Batting average on balls in play might have some significance, but then again, it might not have any bearing on the outcome what so ever. I tend to think the latter. But because I never heard of it before and probably have limited understanding of it, I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that it could be the critical stat that forcasts an outcome. So, basically it's saying balls that are hit in play are equally likely to be fielded and played for an out.  Ok. But, point one of skepticism should be that some defenses are better than others.  Next point is my words, I'd just say "Due Factor" which is regression to the mean. I was a true believer in the due factor with point spreads in football for years. And sometimes I still use some systems using due factor to predict a pointspread outcome.  The thing is, I don't see anything in this system that points out the exact time a pitcher will start to regress to the norm. Do you?

 Your numerator is Hits - Homeruns

Your denominator is At Bats - strikeouts - homeruns +sacrifice flies

The output like you say, hovers usually around .300  as an average. So, .300 in this case I'd call the equilibrium point that the numbers tend to gravitate towards.

I guess I need pretty good evidence that this actually can be used as an indicator before I consider it at higher level than bunk. But, again, I am not a wizard on this statistic and just might not understand the big significance of it staring me in the face.

2ndly, you're right.... lots are on the Reds. But, isn't it actually tougher to play with the public and squares? For instance, yesterday, I thought the Orioles would win outright because I saw the moneyline go in Boston's favor. I put the Orioles ML in a parlay with the Brewers and Phillies RL.

I loved how the public was all over Boston.

But, I made a 2nd  bet as an insurance 3 teamer that included the Crew, Philly ML, and Boston ML.  That was the square play.

The square play won.

I came out ahead so I didn't mind losing the 1st 3teamer.

Today, I'm giving my brain a break and just taking Cueto and the Reds.

I like the Reds, but who knows. Maybe the Brewers will win and I'll  have to learn sybermetrics.