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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    laying more than 130 in baseball is financial suicide

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    renroh123
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    norseman67
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    renroh123
    renroh123
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 2:55 AM ET #101

    Quote Originally Posted by jpcowboy:

    Go back to school punk my bank is always positive gambling is taking chances the Yankees were favorite yesterday because of CC I stayed away and to St. Louis and won you need to know how to pick them.

    Go lecture some place else I bet you did'nt take Federer last week 3 times and three times he increased my bank roll get a job in Mcdonalds and leave us alone!!!! 

     

    Finally! someone with a working intellect.

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    Quote Originally Posted by jpcowboy:

    Go back to school punk my bank is always positive gambling is taking chances the Yankees were favorite yesterday because of CC I stayed away and to St. Louis and won you need to know how to pick them.

    Go lecture some place else I bet you did'nt take Federer last week 3 times and three times he increased my bank roll get a job in Mcdonalds and leave us alone!!!! 

     

    Finally! someone with a working intellect.

     
    vegasplayer
    vegasplayer
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 3:05 AM ET #102

    Renroh I agree with most of what you say but I stay away from favs -200 or more.  I am finding more profit from going over under bets.  Mostly under since this is a cold summer. 

    I think it comes down to what the situation is at the moment in time
    for that play at that time. Favs are favs because they have a better chance of winning at that moment in time.

    When all is said and done I wish us all luck.


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    Renroh I agree with most of what you say but I stay away from favs -200 or more.  I am finding more profit from going over under bets.  Mostly under since this is a cold summer. 

    I think it comes down to what the situation is at the moment in time
    for that play at that time. Favs are favs because they have a better chance of winning at that moment in time.

    When all is said and done I wish us all luck.


     
    renroh123
    renroh123
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 3:15 AM ET #103

    Quote Originally Posted by vamosrafa:

    I'm on the Phillies. Of Course if you like Boston that could qualify as they are only laying 125 but Philly is hard on lefties. Shit, they hit Johan the other night what do you think they will do to Lester? I'm also looking at Houston getting 170 against a team that can't hit lefties. Haren will pitch great but what happens when he comes out of the game in the 7th or 8th inning? To me Houston is a value play. Arizona only mustered a single run against walk-machine Jonathan Sanchez who is a lefty. Also looking at K.C.

    I just can't help myself here... it is a royal waste of precious time, but this idiot just attracts it, lol... so,... based on your theory: Pros do not lay heavy odds (for those of you not up to speed on this post, I know absolutely by my experience, and the fact that I am in the company of other book pros each and everyday) on high probability plays...ever...never...as you said: "anyone doing this once cannot be taken seriously".   So, that would mean you would have to (have to, or you are going against the very basis of your theory) subscribe to parlaying many, if not most of your plays.  You cannot oppose this suspicion of mine b/c you subscribe to the concept of playing less likely plays for better odds, correct? Do not even attempt to say that parlays are low percentage plays so you steer clear, do even try it, because some of the most brilliant minds in any given sport sets the odds, and bets the odds... the line is moved by action, and the line moves to try to get the book to a 50/50 (each side) balance, so the book is not gambling, and only taking juice..... so....either you are a heavy parlay guy, or....better yet, you are the guy waiting to see a game misplayed by the big money in a certain game..... putting your money on the winner when all the rest of the betting world is blind to what your genuis sees so clearly.... which is it? or is it both?  now, I suppose you will say that all the pro's parlay heavy as well, yes?  Either way, you are an idiot, parlays are many times more rare in pro money than heavy favorites, and what pros wait around weeks at a time waiting for the magical game everyone else has so wrong?  your entire theory is completely idiotic.  I am not saying dogs are not profitable, they can be, but favs, and yes...heavy favs can be too, parlays as well (very spuratic, and usually on prime days and usually in a round robin format), but to say that "pros don't lay heavy odds" is just stupid, and once again, if you come to Vegas for even a month, you will realize the insanity of what you say.

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    Quote Originally Posted by vamosrafa:

    I'm on the Phillies. Of Course if you like Boston that could qualify as they are only laying 125 but Philly is hard on lefties. Shit, they hit Johan the other night what do you think they will do to Lester? I'm also looking at Houston getting 170 against a team that can't hit lefties. Haren will pitch great but what happens when he comes out of the game in the 7th or 8th inning? To me Houston is a value play. Arizona only mustered a single run against walk-machine Jonathan Sanchez who is a lefty. Also looking at K.C.

    I just can't help myself here... it is a royal waste of precious time, but this idiot just attracts it, lol... so,... based on your theory: Pros do not lay heavy odds (for those of you not up to speed on this post, I know absolutely by my experience, and the fact that I am in the company of other book pros each and everyday) on high probability plays...ever...never...as you said: "anyone doing this once cannot be taken seriously".   So, that would mean you would have to (have to, or you are going against the very basis of your theory) subscribe to parlaying many, if not most of your plays.  You cannot oppose this suspicion of mine b/c you subscribe to the concept of playing less likely plays for better odds, correct? Do not even attempt to say that parlays are low percentage plays so you steer clear, do even try it, because some of the most brilliant minds in any given sport sets the odds, and bets the odds... the line is moved by action, and the line moves to try to get the book to a 50/50 (each side) balance, so the book is not gambling, and only taking juice..... so....either you are a heavy parlay guy, or....better yet, you are the guy waiting to see a game misplayed by the big money in a certain game..... putting your money on the winner when all the rest of the betting world is blind to what your genuis sees so clearly.... which is it? or is it both?  now, I suppose you will say that all the pro's parlay heavy as well, yes?  Either way, you are an idiot, parlays are many times more rare in pro money than heavy favorites, and what pros wait around weeks at a time waiting for the magical game everyone else has so wrong?  your entire theory is completely idiotic.  I am not saying dogs are not profitable, they can be, but favs, and yes...heavy favs can be too, parlays as well (very spuratic, and usually on prime days and usually in a round robin format), but to say that "pros don't lay heavy odds" is just stupid, and once again, if you come to Vegas for even a month, you will realize the insanity of what you say.

     
    renroh123
    renroh123
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 3:41 AM ET #104

    Quote Originally Posted by vamosrafa:

    I may lose all three games I bet tonight - SEA-PHI- and I already lost with Pitt, but look at what will happen to the Halladay bettor tonight- they will lose more on a single game than I lost in 3 games, and 2 games I haven't lost yet........ Dont ever lay over 130 if you wanna win in baseball. Do the work on the 110-115-120 games and get your winners from there. No need to ever lay over 130, ever.

     

    LMAO....Ok Ok...just one more, then that is it, I swear..lol.... Ok..... Team A is a -200 fav (way above your line in the sand), you know, we know, and everyone knows that Team A would beat Team B on the said field, with said pitchers, said lineups, said conditions entirely, 4 of 5 games minimum.  Your theory says this is a bad bet b/c those of us that take this bet cannot be taken seriously, I am correct in these facts yes?

    Now,...... "basic math" as you call it.

    You make this bet 5 times for a dime per play, how much do you win or lose? 

    Answer for the cocky genuis:

    +$1,000

    Ok, here is another......... not giving you opinions, just taking the science of math, probabilities, and scenarios....

    we flip a coin, and I offer to pay you $10 for every time the coin lands heads 5 times in a row, but you pay me $5 everytime the coin lands heads, for 1,000 flips, now I am laying you 2-1 odds (or taking a -200 favorite.... by your hypothesis, this would be a bad bet, yes? lol..... no, no, no, don't say "only in baseball", because what we do is lay money with the best of it, in whatever we know well enough to effectively investigate enough, and detailed enough so that we can calculate on a table that this envent will play out in our favor this many times, and use a simple calculator to determine if it is a profitable play.  I am no expert in coin flipping, but take the above bet and I am bringing my entire bankroll to the party.   In short, your theory is pathetically misguided, and off base.

     

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    Quote Originally Posted by vamosrafa:

    I may lose all three games I bet tonight - SEA-PHI- and I already lost with Pitt, but look at what will happen to the Halladay bettor tonight- they will lose more on a single game than I lost in 3 games, and 2 games I haven't lost yet........ Dont ever lay over 130 if you wanna win in baseball. Do the work on the 110-115-120 games and get your winners from there. No need to ever lay over 130, ever.

     

    LMAO....Ok Ok...just one more, then that is it, I swear..lol.... Ok..... Team A is a -200 fav (way above your line in the sand), you know, we know, and everyone knows that Team A would beat Team B on the said field, with said pitchers, said lineups, said conditions entirely, 4 of 5 games minimum.  Your theory says this is a bad bet b/c those of us that take this bet cannot be taken seriously, I am correct in these facts yes?

    Now,...... "basic math" as you call it.

    You make this bet 5 times for a dime per play, how much do you win or lose? 

    Answer for the cocky genuis:

    +$1,000

    Ok, here is another......... not giving you opinions, just taking the science of math, probabilities, and scenarios....

    we flip a coin, and I offer to pay you $10 for every time the coin lands heads 5 times in a row, but you pay me $5 everytime the coin lands heads, for 1,000 flips, now I am laying you 2-1 odds (or taking a -200 favorite.... by your hypothesis, this would be a bad bet, yes? lol..... no, no, no, don't say "only in baseball", because what we do is lay money with the best of it, in whatever we know well enough to effectively investigate enough, and detailed enough so that we can calculate on a table that this envent will play out in our favor this many times, and use a simple calculator to determine if it is a profitable play.  I am no expert in coin flipping, but take the above bet and I am bringing my entire bankroll to the party.   In short, your theory is pathetically misguided, and off base.

     

     
    renroh123
    renroh123
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 3:44 AM ET #105

    Quote Originally Posted by renroh123:

     

    LMAO....Ok Ok...just one more, then that is it, I swear..lol.... Ok..... Team A is a -200 fav (way above your line in the sand), you know, we know, and everyone knows that Team A would beat Team B on the said field, with said pitchers, said lineups, said conditions entirely, 4 of 5 games minimum.  Your theory says this is a bad bet b/c those of us that take this bet cannot be taken seriously, I am correct in these facts yes?

    Now,...... "basic math" as you call it.

    You make this bet 5 times for a dime per play, how much do you win or lose? 

    Answer for the cocky genuis:

    +$1,000

    Ok, here is another......... not giving you opinions, just taking the science of math, probabilities, and scenarios....

    we flip a coin, and I offer to pay you $10 for every time the coin lands heads 5 times in a row, but you pay me $5 everytime the coin lands heads, for 1,000 flips, now I am laying you 2-1 odds (or taking a -200 favorite.... by your hypothesis, this would be a bad bet, yes? lol..... no, no, no, don't say "only in baseball", because what we do is lay money with the best of it, in whatever we know well enough to effectively investigate enough, and detailed enough so that we can calculate on a table that this envent will play out in our favor this many times, and use a simple calculator to determine if it is a profitable play.  I am no expert in coin flipping, but take the above bet and I am bringing my entire bankroll to the party.   In short, your theory is pathetically misguided, and off base.

     

    You pay me for everytime the coin lands tails <<< CORRECTION FOR ABOVE SCENARIO

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    Quote Originally Posted by renroh123:

     

    LMAO....Ok Ok...just one more, then that is it, I swear..lol.... Ok..... Team A is a -200 fav (way above your line in the sand), you know, we know, and everyone knows that Team A would beat Team B on the said field, with said pitchers, said lineups, said conditions entirely, 4 of 5 games minimum.  Your theory says this is a bad bet b/c those of us that take this bet cannot be taken seriously, I am correct in these facts yes?

    Now,...... "basic math" as you call it.

    You make this bet 5 times for a dime per play, how much do you win or lose? 

    Answer for the cocky genuis:

    +$1,000

    Ok, here is another......... not giving you opinions, just taking the science of math, probabilities, and scenarios....

    we flip a coin, and I offer to pay you $10 for every time the coin lands heads 5 times in a row, but you pay me $5 everytime the coin lands heads, for 1,000 flips, now I am laying you 2-1 odds (or taking a -200 favorite.... by your hypothesis, this would be a bad bet, yes? lol..... no, no, no, don't say "only in baseball", because what we do is lay money with the best of it, in whatever we know well enough to effectively investigate enough, and detailed enough so that we can calculate on a table that this envent will play out in our favor this many times, and use a simple calculator to determine if it is a profitable play.  I am no expert in coin flipping, but take the above bet and I am bringing my entire bankroll to the party.   In short, your theory is pathetically misguided, and off base.

     

    You pay me for everytime the coin lands tails <<< CORRECTION FOR ABOVE SCENARIO

     
    norseman67
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 6:46 AM ET #106

    Quote Originally Posted by 3825:

    blanket rules don't work in baseball quite that easy . . . give me a good angels/mariners/a's pitcher facing the red sox and wakefield on the west coast and i will gladly lay 30 cents juice, history shows that boston doesn't come any where close to winning those games 43.5% of the time.
     
    give me felix hernandez facing the twins the day after the twins have clinched the central, and have the lineup loaded with sept. callups, and felix is still pursuing a cy young, sign me up at -150, i think felix wins that game more than 60% of the time.
     
    it's all situational . . . those that follow my threads know i don't lay much juice on sides, and rarely lay more than 5 cents on total. but give me the right situation, and i would gladly lay 30 or 40 or 50 cents juice.  it's all about the price of a commodity and my percieved valuation of what's a good "deal" for me.


    Reading backwards in this thread and one the above post is one of the best, pithy points made. Translated a bit differently, one has to get better at adjusting.

    Some days 70-80% of games go under. Some days a high percentage of home fave wins. No insight needed there.

     It's all about trying to read these games as best as possible, yet playing odds under best circumstances with an X amount of games each day, that of course varies. And acknowledge that a certain percentage of each game you play, you're just throwing mud. You're just trying to lean as least possible on just throwing the mud.

    Personally, I do low juice faves, dogs about 30-40% of a 7 day week, about 65% overs with totals as they are usually easier for me to spot potential breakdowns; 5 inning unders and some 5 inn faves.

    But then again, a certain percentage of what I do is play Oz rugby league and attach mostly low juiced MLB faves on weekend rugby games. I know they are parlays, but I consider it more as upping the price, on average, by tacking on 2- 5 days worth of baseball winners on a single rugby match. That shit can add up. But the ole money management is of course key.

    If I had the time to follow tennis like I used to, I'd do the same with American football & Tennis parlays.
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    Quote Originally Posted by 3825:

    blanket rules don't work in baseball quite that easy . . . give me a good angels/mariners/a's pitcher facing the red sox and wakefield on the west coast and i will gladly lay 30 cents juice, history shows that boston doesn't come any where close to winning those games 43.5% of the time.
     
    give me felix hernandez facing the twins the day after the twins have clinched the central, and have the lineup loaded with sept. callups, and felix is still pursuing a cy young, sign me up at -150, i think felix wins that game more than 60% of the time.
     
    it's all situational . . . those that follow my threads know i don't lay much juice on sides, and rarely lay more than 5 cents on total. but give me the right situation, and i would gladly lay 30 or 40 or 50 cents juice.  it's all about the price of a commodity and my percieved valuation of what's a good "deal" for me.


    Reading backwards in this thread and one the above post is one of the best, pithy points made. Translated a bit differently, one has to get better at adjusting.

    Some days 70-80% of games go under. Some days a high percentage of home fave wins. No insight needed there.

     It's all about trying to read these games as best as possible, yet playing odds under best circumstances with an X amount of games each day, that of course varies. And acknowledge that a certain percentage of each game you play, you're just throwing mud. You're just trying to lean as least possible on just throwing the mud.

    Personally, I do low juice faves, dogs about 30-40% of a 7 day week, about 65% overs with totals as they are usually easier for me to spot potential breakdowns; 5 inning unders and some 5 inn faves.

    But then again, a certain percentage of what I do is play Oz rugby league and attach mostly low juiced MLB faves on weekend rugby games. I know they are parlays, but I consider it more as upping the price, on average, by tacking on 2- 5 days worth of baseball winners on a single rugby match. That shit can add up. But the ole money management is of course key.

    If I had the time to follow tennis like I used to, I'd do the same with American football & Tennis parlays.
     
    norseman67
    norseman67
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 6:49 AM ET #107

    vamosrafa:No, instead I cleaned house on Fernando Gonzalez over Murray and then cleaned house again with Soderling over Gonzo.



    If you're "cleaning house" on two separate matches, then you aren't using money management.
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    vamosrafa:No, instead I cleaned house on Fernando Gonzalez over Murray and then cleaned house again with Soderling over Gonzo.



    If you're "cleaning house" on two separate matches, then you aren't using money management.
     
    lillefty
    lillefty
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 6:59 AM ET #108

    here are the facts that back up the original argument. Vamosrafa is absolutely right. If you want to bet a big fave, Runline the bet or bet 1st 5 inn -1/2 run to cut down the juice.
     
    These are the %'s you would have to hit at the odds specified to break even. This is equal to expected win rates.

    -110, break even mark is 52.4%
    -120, 54.5%
    -130, 56.5%
    -140, 58.3%
    -150, 60.0%
    -160, 61.5%
    -170, 63.0%
    -180, 64.3%
    -190, 65.5%
    -200, 66.7%
    +200, 33.3%
    +190, 34.5%
    +180, 35.7%
    +170, 37%
    +160, 38.5%
    +150, 40%
    +140, 41.7%
    +130. 43.5%
    +120, 45.5%
    +110, 47.6%

    how these # apply to getting value for your bets:How I use this in baseball capping is if you want to play the yankees or the redsox or any of those "public teams". You need to figure the win expectancy rate into the equation to see if the money you need to lay is worth the investment.

    In 2008 for example the yankees played at about a .520-540 clip for most of the year but yet you had to lay -150 or higher almost every game. At -150 they would have to win 60% of their games to make that bet have a good value. The only way that bet would have good value is the runline at -1.5 runs or play the 1st 5 inn -.5 run in which case you would get + juice and then you would need to win less than 50% of your bets to make $$$.

    On the flip side the angels In 2008 for the whole 1st half were usually -125 to -135 which means that they needed to win between 54.5 - 56.5 % of their games to make $$$. Well they were winning at a better than 60% clip the whole year. So it was worth it for a person to just ride them almost every game.

    good luck to everyone on their bets
    lillefty
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    here are the facts that back up the original argument. Vamosrafa is absolutely right. If you want to bet a big fave, Runline the bet or bet 1st 5 inn -1/2 run to cut down the juice.
     
    These are the %'s you would have to hit at the odds specified to break even. This is equal to expected win rates.

    -110, break even mark is 52.4%
    -120, 54.5%
    -130, 56.5%
    -140, 58.3%
    -150, 60.0%
    -160, 61.5%
    -170, 63.0%
    -180, 64.3%
    -190, 65.5%
    -200, 66.7%
    +200, 33.3%
    +190, 34.5%
    +180, 35.7%
    +170, 37%
    +160, 38.5%
    +150, 40%
    +140, 41.7%
    +130. 43.5%
    +120, 45.5%
    +110, 47.6%

    how these # apply to getting value for your bets:How I use this in baseball capping is if you want to play the yankees or the redsox or any of those "public teams". You need to figure the win expectancy rate into the equation to see if the money you need to lay is worth the investment.

    In 2008 for example the yankees played at about a .520-540 clip for most of the year but yet you had to lay -150 or higher almost every game. At -150 they would have to win 60% of their games to make that bet have a good value. The only way that bet would have good value is the runline at -1.5 runs or play the 1st 5 inn -.5 run in which case you would get + juice and then you would need to win less than 50% of your bets to make $$$.

    On the flip side the angels In 2008 for the whole 1st half were usually -125 to -135 which means that they needed to win between 54.5 - 56.5 % of their games to make $$$. Well they were winning at a better than 60% clip the whole year. So it was worth it for a person to just ride them almost every game.

    good luck to everyone on their bets
    lillefty
     
    vegasplayer
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 8:47 AM ET #109

    Renroh I am just saying I play mostly Favs when I bet and only mostly one or two games a day.  Like today I am doing 2.  Atl Bal under and
    LAA over SD at -185.  The -185 does not scare me but under this guys theory I am crazy.  I am saying that over -200 to me is laying too much juice.  I have charts on the odds and it does not pay off at that price.

    It used to be that -150 at the Coast system was a winner anytime that you play home favs at that price.  They changed over to Sams Town/Stardust books after the merger.  in 2008 so they upped the odds to average -160 on good plays.  That evened up the win/loss
    % a lot.

    Currently I am finding more profit in the under, like yesterday I took under TEX/LAD 1st 5 inn.  To me there are usually much better plays less then -200 all the time.   Just have to shop the odds.

    I may not make as much money as you but I do ok.
    Good Luck to you and all others. 
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    Renroh I am just saying I play mostly Favs when I bet and only mostly one or two games a day.  Like today I am doing 2.  Atl Bal under and
    LAA over SD at -185.  The -185 does not scare me but under this guys theory I am crazy.  I am saying that over -200 to me is laying too much juice.  I have charts on the odds and it does not pay off at that price.

    It used to be that -150 at the Coast system was a winner anytime that you play home favs at that price.  They changed over to Sams Town/Stardust books after the merger.  in 2008 so they upped the odds to average -160 on good plays.  That evened up the win/loss
    % a lot.

    Currently I am finding more profit in the under, like yesterday I took under TEX/LAD 1st 5 inn.  To me there are usually much better plays less then -200 all the time.   Just have to shop the odds.

    I may not make as much money as you but I do ok.
    Good Luck to you and all others. 
     
    sergio1994
    sergio1994
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 8:54 AM ET #110

    can't disagree with the original post...every other reply came from yanks backers yesterday
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    can't disagree with the original post...every other reply came from yanks backers yesterday
     
     
    norseman67
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    Posted: Jun. 14, 2009 - 3:29 PM ET #111

    And then the Yanks today
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    And then the Yanks today
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