laying more than 130 in baseball is financial suicide

Especially on Freaky Friday

Halladay was not a lock.  

Wasnt me btw I just find this whole thread funny.

Tell that to the guyy that said it this morning. No game in any sport is ever a lock, therefore there is no need to ever lay wood.

Not if you get a sucky

No biggie. Losing happens. Losing on Dogs happens all the time. But so does losing on favorites. Happens all the time. Losing on 4 dogs tonight hurts and hurts bad, but it doesn't blow me out. If you had the Jays and 3 other losers you got blown out. The Yankees should have lost at -200 as well. And Tampa BARELY got by the horrible Nats at -250. Thats baseball. But plenty of other low-cost teams won tonight that were fair bets. K.C., Boston, Detroit, all those teams were under 130. I just happend to like Pitt and Philly and I lost, but had you bet the favorites there you would have won. Remember, I never said dont bet favorites, I said dont bet favorites over 130.

I think you have some great points vamos, and I think you are probably a successful baseball bettor.  But some of your points are misleading, and hook is right in various instances.  Baseball betting is all about value, and it doesn't matter how you lay the juice.  All these games are independent events, and statistical models for baseball games as a whole are not as accurate as pitching-specific or team-specific or situation-specific models.  A favorite laying -165 can have more value than a dog getting +110, depending on the situation.  If you have a team that you have capped as winning 2 out of 3 times at -165, this has more line value than a team that will win half the time at +110. 

I agree that long-term betting on faves is the most classic form of "bookie bank."  But the point is, no one is arguing this.  They are simply saying that it's about value, and not about picking "every favorite," as you have said to do to prove your point many times.  If a favorite has more value, I'm all about taking the favorite.  It's not a long-term betting strategy, it's about independent events and probabilities in certain situations. 

I took the dreaded yankees at -240.. man, I was soooooo lucky!  My luckiest game ever on baseball

The man has a point here ... I mean if you want the perfect example of his arguement look what happened.

I have to say you are wrong. I have moved to Vegas since 10/01 and have kept the charts since 2003 and have them in my computer.
It all depends on the season you are looking at.  I use the books at
the Coast system here in Vegas.  They changed over to Sams Town/Stardust managers  I think in 2008.  Before then the Coast rating service showed a profit on home Fav's of -150 each year before '06.
I have found that depending on the situation the fav's will show a profit when chosen rightly.  Here in Vegas there are many that know what they are doing like the tourists.  I was just talking to the head of the Palms book and only tourists play teh 20cent lines at places like Bally's system or Mirage.  The people who know do play favs
at places like Coast and Hilton and Palms.

One stat told me by a long time stat keeper was that in 2004 the
-300 or more favs went 0-4.  I sugest you get from the "Gamblers Book" store here in Vegas a data base listing of the last 10 years
of AL & NL stats.   The last copy I bought was in DB and I converted to my favorite spread sheet to sort out.

One inside tip I can give if you watch the right opening line and price above -200 loses whereas some prices at -199 won in previous years.  Go figure?
     

You guys better jump over to kingscorpion's thread !!

How can you be a bad sportsbook pro???? LMAO..... come to vegas pal... I will introduce you to many.... how can you be a bad pro baseball, basketball, hockey player?? simple, you make it, you got your shot, you do it full time as a primary source of income, and you fail and do something else, the only diff is they always come back..... honestly, no offense primarily intended, but I don't know you but can assure you the following advise would benefit you greatly... "speak as little as possible each, and everyday and less people will realize your lack of intellectual capacity"