Last2Thirst Gut/Pattern Betting - March/April

Parlay > Red Sox Ml and Under +153 x HALF U  

-Hough with strong efforts vs Cleveland lineup and very strong wind blowing in from centre field will mean players will not try to hit a homerun and this means a middle of the pack bullpen will appear even stronger vs messed up swings of hitters trying to hit a knuckleball for contact 

Play of the Day so far..... trifecta negative factors against Twins: Angels ML +115 x 1U

-Twins hit lefties for .154 avg and Kikuchi having a quietly good start to year despite the 0 - 3 record so better pitcher with Angels /has strong stats vs Twins 

-Twins hit for only .190 avg in day games 

-Angels hit best in day games and hit righties much better than lefties

-Twins with a decent bullpen so this total might float under but no play for me when I see better advantage taking Halos

Strong lean to Cardinals runline -1.5 +140 .....mulling this one and will be a last minute decision

- Priestner with high walk rate and WHIP despite low era.....this catches up to you when you face an excellent hitting team, especially at home where they are close to .290 avg

-those walks will come back to haunt Milwaukee starter

-Gray can attack the Brewers hitters with a cold win blowing in from centrefield

I will be going contrarian soon....maybe next week. Logic in matchup does not matter

I did play Cards runline x HALF U 

And Brewers tie it up in the 9th when the closer just had to do his job 

KEEPING STREAKS ALIVE >  consider only games  streaks of 3 - 6 games (cap) in a row whether using TOTAL or RESULT for my selections

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ALL GAMES IN THE SEASON ARE RECORDED UNDER THE FOLLOWING CRITERIA: 

- UPDATED NOW TO Sat April 28

a.  Over Streaks of 3 - 6 games in a row >   57 - 54 (season)  = 51.4%  (drop of  2.4 %)  

b.  Under Streaks of 3 - 6 games in a row >   103 - 79 (season)  = 56.6%  (increase almost  1%) 

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c. Win Streaks of 3 to 6 games >   95 - 69 (season)  = 57.8%  (increase 1% ) 

d. Losing Streaks of 3 - 6 games  >  92 - 75 (season)  = 55.1%  (drop of 1%)  

e. Losing streak vs a  Leftie 3 games or more >  =  28 - 20 =  58.3%  (rise of almost 1%)

Cubs

Marlins

Blue Jays  ....are an exception > all hit OVER .278 vs lefties

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Strong/Weak Hitting Teams Situationally:

Excellent at Home:

St. Louis    .295

Atlanta      .289  / weak on the road .200

Weakest Hitting Situations:  

Colorado + Minnesota away games > .180 - .189

Baltimore vs lefties  >  .178   and 3 teams at .190 - .199 > Twins, White Sox, Angels

White Sox  at home   >  .202

Day games  >  Pittsburgh  .186  and  Texas  .197

Night games  >  Baltimore  .178  and  Kansas City  .195

Might have a play for later games based on these stats....but next week I might try CONTRARIAN bets for the whole weak and see how we do....

One non-contrarian game today and tomorrow I will start....will mention who I love and why....then pick opposite until Sunday is OVER and will see how I do

Oakland-Texas Under 9  x 1U

-Oakland has gone OVER this number 12 out of 28 games and tied that total 2x

-Texas has gone OVER this number 5 out of 28 games ...and tied it never

I don't expect Texas to all of a sudden to become mashers with a team avg of .215 so far and less vs lefties

Oakland, they are legit hitters in their temporary ballpark so that is why the TOTALS are high....games in Texas tend to be 8 or less total run totals 

Nice win last night....two in a row using trends, but I want to go CONTRARIAN this week to the end of Sunday night:

Red Sox /Jays Under likely due to how hitters hardly hit these two pitchers (both are hit way under .200 against)

-games in dome have trended under and Jays have an exceptional defense

-Jays have controlled Boston so far but look for a pissed off Red Sox team to win....therefore I lean Jays haha

Go OVER JAYS 7.5 x HALF U

Strong wind blowing out in Baltimore .... Gibson has a .129 BA vs Yankees and Rodon gets hit for over .300 by Baltimore

-Baltimore hits .178 vs lefties and .178 at night 

-STRONG LEAN TO UNDER despite strong wind blowing out

-Yanks have only gone OVER 9.5 runs in last 2 of 8 games 

-Baltimore have gone OVER 9.5 runs in last 2 of 8 games......game leans UNDER

OVER YANKEES LEAN if contrarian ...no play due to number

KC - Tampa 

-KC not good on the road hitting .199 away and .195 at night

-Tampa with 5 wins in a row

-Taj Bradley with high era from one bad outing but has no hit KC in 19 ABs career

This one screams take TAMPA 

Kansas City +130 ML x HALF U for me going contrarian!

Twins - Cleveland 

-rainout early possible but should get game in after 2-3 hr delay

-wind blowing out to dead centre later if starting at 9pm

-two high era pitchers with low ABs vs opponents 

Total is 8.5 runs and so OVER likely ...... 

Taking UNDER Cleveland 8.5 x HALF U 

Strong wind blowing out in Mets game 

-Peterson gets hit hard by Zona....ERod has had success with Mets

UNDER 8.5 Mets x HALF U

Some of those might be late...forgot to send...had those ready in the afternoon

I always want an odd number when I do baseball picks so since the Yankees LEAN is not official.... I love TEXAS UNDERS so playing Texas OVER  8.5 x HALF U (contrarian all week)

Trending 4 - 0 contrarian  ...lots of time for it to bite me!

RESULTS This week:

Trend = 2 - 0  (+1.5 U)

Contrarian =  4 - 1

Good week  = 6 - 1

Contrarian Results Tuesday:

Go OVER JAYS 7.5 x HALF U  

OVER YANKEES LEAN if contrarian ...no play due to number  

Kansas City +130 ML x HALF U for me going contrarian!  

Taking UNDER Cleveland 8.5 x HALF U  

UNDER 8.5 Mets x HALF U   

 I love TEXAS UNDERS so playing Texas OVER  8.5 x HALF U (contrarian all week)  

WEDNESDAY Contrarian plays:

Red Sox - Jays 

-Jays 2 - 8 in their last 10 games

-unknown pitcher for the Jays and after a strong start in the bullpen, their rankings are plunging and now middle of the pack

JAYS ML x HALF U

Yanks-Orioles

-Yanks with excellent hitting stats and against lefties

-Carrasco with good stats vs Orioles

-Orioles scuffling at the plate 

Baltimore ML x HALF U 

Atlanta vs Colorado 

-first two games when under and an ace on the mound in Chris Sale

OVER 10 x HALF U

May have more later...

 CONTRARIAN IS MAKING ME 

RESULTS:

Contrarian picks tonight = 2 - 1   + 0.7 U

Trend picks = 2 - 0  (+1.5 U) ...played none tonight and won't the rest of the week likely...MAYBE ONE MORE

Contrarian (week)=  6 - 2

Ongoing week record  = 8 - 2

Great comeback by the Jays who need to get their heads out of their arses !!

Friday night Contrarian plays:

Cleveland ML - +145 x HALF U

-Jays hit lefties well

-Bassitt pitches well vs Clev

Wind blowing out to left in Boston

-Boston scorching the ball at home

Under 9.5 x HALF U

 Under 9.5 x HALF U - Miami-Oakland

-both these teams produce high scores all season long 

FADE them!!

So.....I am really like this CONTRARIAN betting and I just might give it a go another week because it has been hugely successful!

RESULTS:

Contrarian picks tonight = 2 - 1   + HALF U

Trend picks = 2 - 0  (+1.5 U) ...played none tonight and won't the rest of the week likely...MAYBE ONE MORE

Contrarian (week)=  8 - 3    CRAZY!! 

Ongoing week record  = 10 - 3

I will continue to provide trends and ONE TREND PICK per day if it screams at me ....otherwise, carry on because this is fun! 

3 Contrarian + 1 TREND most days it is 

Last day for CONTRARIAN week but I am also picking 1 piece of TREND fruit from the tree of baseball every day that something really smacks me in the face and presents itself. So far, I have only found 2 this week. I think I have found another:

TREND PLAY: 

Mets/Cardinals UNDER 7.5 2nd game  x 1U

-love Sunday night UNDERS with umpires the focus and pitchers dialed in as well

-Pallante and Megill have both had success vs the batters they face and regardless of whether this is the rubber match or not, I expect razor focus from all involved concerning ball and strike outcomes

-wind blowing in from leftfield but at half the speed of afternoon game ....regardless, spin rate off the bat with that wind will prevent some homeruns to right field falling toward the stands in foul ball territory

Contrarian Plays:

Cardinals + 125 in the evening game x HALF U 

Cardinals/Mets GAME 1 UNDER 8.5 +100 X HALF U

-Tidwell is just a filler type of arm only up for one game and with a 5.00 era and Cards with a high avg BA at home, you would expect him to get lit up .....well, that makes it a perfect contrarian play!!

-umpire if Wolf loves the home team so I expect him to help out Fedde who gets lit up by Mets usually but the umpire will protect him this time after a rough outing in his last one

A's - Marlins Under 9 x HALF U

-this looks like an OVER with Cabrera on the mound and Marlins scorching hot at home, vs lefties and day games

-Oakland can hit too!

ITS BEEN VACATION TIME FOR ME - no coverage of stats while gone....took a break because I did this every day from Nov 2 - end of College Basketball season and then Baseball started right up

I am swamped in trying to catch up! Managed to get American League caught up and inputted.... will only recommend AL games until I get NL stats inputted which should take me another week I figure, while keeping up with  daily games.

Below stats INCLUDE AMERICAN LEAGUE only + both leagues from May 2 - back to start of season:

KEEPING STREAKS ALIVE >  consider only games  streaks of 3 - 6 games (cap) in a row whether using TOTAL or RESULT for my selections

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a.  Over Streaks of 3 - 6 games in a row >   92 -77 (season)  = 54.4%  (rising sharply) - heat beginning to have an effect?? 

b.  Under Streaks of 3 - 6 games in a row >   143 - 110 (season)  = 56.5%  (slight drop) - playable

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c. Win Streaks of 3 to 6 games >   135 - 100 (season)  = 57.4%  (roughly same % ) - very playable

d. Losing Streaks of 3 - 6 games  >  132 - 103 (season)  = 56.2%  (rising)  - playable now

e. Losing streak vs a  Leftie 3 games or more >  =  34 - 27 =  55.7%  (dropping) - still playable

Respecting and staying with STREAKS is hitting OVER 55.5% .... so stick with some streaks if you like the matchups!

American League games to scope for Sunday: - on streaks!

Minnesota - do the Twins sustain their 13 game WIN streak?   

- will they score enough runs in their game to break a 3 game UNDER streak

Seattle - going for 3 in a row WINS or go UNDER or both

LA Angels - looking for an Over vs Dodgers

Oakland - do they sustain their 4 game losing streak?

White Sox - do they sustain their 3 game losing streak?

Cleveland - do they sustain their 3 game losing streak?

K.C - do they sustain their 4 game losing streak?

Baltimore - do they sustain their 5 game losing streak?

Yankees - do they finally score enough runs to break their 4 game UNDER streak?

Toronto - they are 0 - 2 vs a left handed starter 

Play #1 - LAD - 1.5 x  1U

-Angels were supposed to be poor vs a leftie and they broke that mold yesterday

-Dodgers hit .288 at home and they have lost 2 in a row to one of the worst teams in baseball

REGRESSION to the mean today with Kikuchi being hit for basically .300 avg his career vs Dodgers and Tony Gonsolin pitching well off injury and a lifetime controller of this Angels lineup! You don't sweep the Dodgers in their home park...

By the way....fantastic statistical Ballpark effect on ball by wind article and shows graphically which stadiums are most influenced by 10+ mph winds (MUST VIEW!) https://www.mlb.com/news/the-big-impact-of-wind-on-baseball-outcomes

Based on 2023-24 Season > THE MOST HR SENSITIVE PARKS with wind BLOWING OUT 10 mph+

1. NYM

2. Oakland (old ball park has constant wind blowing out it seems)

3. Boston

4. San Fran (ball park has mostly constant blowing out wind)

5. Cubs/White Sox

6. LAA Angels

7. LA Dodgers 

8. Colorado

9. Toronto

10. Yankees

BLOWING IN 10 MPH

1. Kansas City

2. CUBS/White Sox

3. Seattle

4. Philadelphia 

5. NY Yankees

6. Washington

7. NY Mets

8. Cleveland

9. San Fran

10. Atlanta

Will have some more plays possibly...skimming stats now

Play #2 - Cubs - White Sox  UNDER 8 x HALF U

-cool wind blowing in at almost 10 mph

-Cannon for the White Sox has allowed only 1 HR in the past 3 games and ZERO walks

-I don't expect Rea's sometimes control problems or tendency to give up a lazy HR to rear its head much vs a feeble White Sox team 

-White Sox only hit .203 during the day and one of the worst in baseball

- a couple of OVERS so far in this series but with warmer weather....now it flips

Play #3 - St. Louis - KC Under 8 runs x 1 U 

- my second PLAY OF THE DAY - 11 mph wind blowing in at KC and strong under umpire over 2 seasons now

-last night's low scoring 1 run game continues today

-each pitcher has only allowed 1 HR in the past 5 games

-Cardinals can erupt for runs but that is usually at home where they hit the best in the league and only .238 on the road

Play #4- Twins ML +225 ML x HALF U << respect a Streak play of 13 wins

- hot minor leaguer vs hot pitcher vs rival state? Give me the streaking team to find a way +125!!

Play #5 - Baltimore - 1.5 x HALF U

-Soroka has been a pure and utter pinata....Baltimore hits over .400 vs him and the wind is blowing hard to right field pole so outfielders will have a tricky time with hard hit balls

-Eflin has been the best pitcher for Baltimore and his last 5 games confirm this

-If Baltimore can get to the Nationals pen with a 7.00 ERA much sooner than Eflin hands over the ball, I believe the Orioles will break their streak and with a strong win which is what they do when they break any 3 + game losing streak

Sunday 1 - 3 - 1 (-1 U) kick in the gut/welcome back kind of day  That's baseball ! I forced it yesterday > 3 plays should have been my max

Streaks I am monitoring: - AL only (until NL data caught up)

-Jays Under streak of 2 / loss streak vs Leftie of 2 in a row

*** JAYS 10 - 4 in continuing an UNDER streak into the very next game or more!

*** JAYS one of the streakiest teams in baseball > 29 - 21 sustaining any type of streak (Wins, Losses, Over, Under) up to 6 games in a row 

- Kansas City Under streak of 2 / 4 of 5 have been Under > they are 10 - 4 continuing a streak Under

*** ROYALS are 26 - 9 on the season continuing streaks into the next game!  **best in American League and maybe whole league!

- Cleveland Under streak of 2 / 7 - 4 keeping Under Streaks alive into next game are the Guardians

*** Cleveland is a moderate streaky team with 21 - 16 overall record for 4 categories of streaks

- Chic. White Sox Losing streak of 4 / they are 13 - 4 at continuing a losing streak after 2 games in a row or more

***White Sox have a strong streak tendency at 21 - 12 on the season but mostly losing streaks

- Texas Under streak of 2 games / they are 13 - 6  at continuing an Under streak after 2 games in a row or more 

*** Rangers for sure one of the better streaky teams in 4 categories > 27 - 14 keeping streaks going on season

Will find a game or 3 out of these before 7 pm......just sticking with STREAK angles now

Play #1 Milwaukee ML x 1U

- Rob Zastrzyny is coming back and was a high draft pick but 33 now with some good stuff as a leftie

-Orioles hit .179 vs lefties and UNDER .200 at night

-Kremer is a pinata at best for the Orioles

-Orioles on a 6 game losing streak so RIDING THE STREAK (fade)!

Play #2 - Twins - Clev Under 7.5 x Half U

-cool windy night with 18 mph blowing in from centre to the batter

- both teams on an Under streak

- both pitchers in fine form

-both teams play strong defense 

-Twins with the 3rd best bullpen in baseball and Ober has had good success vs Cleveland 

Can see a 4 - 2 / 3 - 1/ 5 - 2 type of game at most 

Just gonna go with 2 games.....hate Even numbers but if its not there, its not there!

Got the main one  > +1 U .....will have to see how the suspended game goes tomorrow to get the 2nd one

Working on National League East division....almost done inputting data after 2 weeks off

Tomorrow's games:

Tigers - Cardinals Over 7.5 x HALF U

-Skubal has been solid but he has to face a Cardinals team hitting .290 at home 

- Tigers can put up runs on any pitcher and they have taken Fedde deep 4 x already in a low number of ABs

- 15 runs put up tonight

Min score = 6-3 tomorrow night.... and Cards may get more runs

Padres - Jays.....will be on Blue Jays if Bassitt is pitching....not confirmed yet

Those are the only two I like unless I decide tomorrow evening to go with Angels /As OVER

Jays also tonight ML @+95 x HALF U

2 games again

GL today