L2T Mid Season Streak Angles (May 16 -July 31))

Full season, past 4 weeks/2.5 weeks/this week spreadsheet stats on streaks:

                           Full Season            last 28 days         last 17 days / last 5-6 days
hit Win strk of 3  102 - 105 = 49.3% (46 - 56 = 45.1% ) (39- 43) (10- 9)
hit Win strk of 4  46 - 48 = 48.9% (20 - 27 = 42.6% ) (18 - 24) (6 - 3 )
hit Win strk 5- 10  56 - 45 = 55.4% (29 - 19 = 60.4% ) (21 - 15) (2 - 3)
hit Lose strk of 3  102 - 86 = 54.3% (49 - 47 = 51.0% ) (39 - 37) (10 - 9)
hit Lose strk of 4  54 - 46 = 54.0% (26 - 21 = 55.3%) (21 - 17) (3 - 4)
hit Lose strk 5- 10  58 - 51 = 53.2% (24 - 26 = 48.0% ) (20 - 20) (5 - 3)
hit Over strk of 3  106 - 76 = 58.2% (44 - 34 = 56.4% ) (31 - 28) (6 - 7)
hit Over strk of 4  55 - 46 = 54.4% (30 - 20 = 60.0% ) (27 - 11) (7 - 1)
hit Over strk 5-10  68 - 45 = 60.2% (36 - 28 =56.3% ) (28 - 25) (12 - 7)
hit Under strk of 3  96 - 106 = 47.5% (56 - 42 = 57.1% ) (46 - 35) (5 - 11)
hit Under strk of 4  48 - 52 = 48.0% (31 - 23 = 57.4% ) (28 - 19) (3 - 2)
hit Under strk 5- 10  42 - 45 = 48.3% (34 - 28 = 54.8% ) (33 - 23) (5 - 8)

You can see what is 'hitting' in the past 5 days.....the UNDER is in a bit of a retreat since last weekend and the OVER is rising again 

Thursday:

- no teams lined up to get 4th OVER in a row (7-1 past 5 days)

- some teams going for 4th WIN in a row (6 - 3 past 5 days)

Milwaukee, Boston

- going for 5th OVER in a row or more (12 - 7 past 5 days)

Washington, Miami, Atlanta

- FADE these teams to hit a 3rd UNDER in a row? (5 - 11 past 5 days)

Cubs, Milwaukee, Cleveland, Detroit, Tampa, Baltimore

If I were to pick a game to go OVER ...... it would be Atlanta vs Miami but the game could go 6- 1 sort of score or 8 - 2 so going to not make it an official one U or HALF U play and just use in my parlay mixers with other sports 

- STRIDER is in mid season form dominant

Arizona is HOT and the Rockies NOT..... so I like ZONA ML  for a mixer ....Rockies putting in a bullpen game and ERod pitching has been strong for DBacks 

Strong lean to JAYS even though its a bullpen game..... Jays have POUNDED Rodon in the past and I look for them to try to gain the split in the 4 game series 

Been real busy the last couple of days but a rainy day today, has me doing a deep dive on my streak stats...

Last 7 days: WHAT'S HOT?

-taking teams to continue Losing streaks of 4 or more = 8 -3   (19 day record = 23 - 20)

Today maybe fade one of:   Cubs, Giants, K.C. or Detroit ??

-taking teams that have gone OVER for 3 games in a row = 7 - 1 (19 day recored = 27 - 11) 

Consider taking OVER on:   no teams in this situation 

-following teams are on 2 OVERS in a row so consider Sunday if Over today: Boston, CWS, Giants

-taking teams that have gone OVER for 4 games or more =  15 - 10  (19 day record = 31 - 28)

Consider:  Atlanta

Best Long term 19 day streak situation (12 - 12 past 7 days):

- taking teams with 2 UNDERS in a row to go 3 in a row = 53 - 36

Consider: Arizona, Dodgers, Mets, Cleveland, Toronto

Saturday DOUBLE UP plays > Game #1 Houston ML @ +125 x HALF U

- Tseng with a very strong last outing and chances are, he continues vs a weak hitting lineup and long losing streak of the Cubs who face a stiff breeze from centrefield > Houston Fielding rank = #6 

- Rea with a BA of .321 allowed to Houston's lineup and he has been terrible his past 12+ innings 

- Houston has shown an ability all season to win scrappy games but have worst bullpen in baseball

***tread carefully***

Non DOUBLE UP play - Pitt /Jays UNDER 7.5 x HALF U

-been watching the Blue Jays for most of the season and I don't think they are ready yet to be in top form at the plate and what I see is, they are less selective than last year and it all stems from the fact, last year they were hunting for FASTBALLS with a lot of succes, including high fastballs.....and this year, few players on the team YET can catch up to a top level fastball which SKENES has one of the best

-Skenes shows a very strong ability to bounce back after a terrible outing!

-Corbin has excellent stats vs the Pirates and pitches well at home >> Blue Jays bullpen is in late season form now....man it is SUPER IMPRESSIVE lately!! >> they forced Judge into 1 for 15 in Yankees series and made the Yankees best home run team in baseball look feeble 

-dome is closed, defense should prevail as well

I looked at the other 4 pm games.....pretty tricky situations but trust the trend I put up earlier today if you like it yourself....gonna be cautious and post my best situations for the most part, in this thread going forward. I have learned in NCAAB, NCAAF and MLB that posting MANY Plays tends to lead to a success rate of +/- slightly around .500 record on any given day....but to 'squeeze the juice out only'

- really like Phillies, Twins and Seattle to Win in parlays and UNDER KC as well .....none of those are worthy of $50-100 except perhaps the Phillies with Wheeler in top form and bulldogging as usual...great numbers vs his opponent today

I might have something for 7pm games and later...

@Last2thirst

Jays are rolling..... nice to see....look out! First 4 game win streak and most hits on Skenes in his career...just sayin!!

Beating the Yankees or Mariners on the road, always seem to rev them up!

Saturday DOUBLE UP plays > Game #1 Houston ML @ +125 x HALF U  

Non DOUBLE UP play - Pitt /Jays UNDER 7.5 x HALF U  

After Saturday afternoon:

Thread Profit = +$412

Thread Record = 7 - 3

Looking for a night game now....

Final Saturday Play:

- **$37 parlay** Texas ML 1.66 with Blue Jays win Sunday morning 1.66 > pays +175

-**$25 parlay** Texas ML 1.66 with Blue Jays Under 7.5 @1.9 > pays +215 

Note: Jays going for 5 in a row wins.....they know how to pitch Pirates and Cease is perfect for that script they have just like they used vs the Yankees

- Jays going for 4th Under in a row which have gone 29 - 21 in the past 19 days

- Kelleher has been terrible the past couple of days and not a good sign vs an eager and better hitting Blue Jay team now

- Texas scoring runs and hitting well....hitting righties well, at night and on the road

- LAA Angels are not good vs right handers and Eovaldi has very good numbers vs them and on a big roll after a poor couple of opening starts 

Texas went down .... could not convert a bases loaded 1 out situation in the 7th and they reverted back to their old poor hitting self....BAH!

Thread Record

7 - 4 

+$350 

Double Up Play #1 - Jays -1.5   +125 x HALF U

-I expect a great outing from Cease ....mulled taking the UNDER but think Keller could get pounded on potentially and the Jays win 8-2 sort of game

-Jays smell blood in the water in NY with their hitters and it was a year ago where Jays went 45 -17 through middle of May to mid August and they have that look with getting back all their pitching and regulars in the lineup like Bieber, Kirk behind the plate and the awesome HR talent of Barger ....expect the Jays to go 30-20 roughly in the next 50 games 

Updating my stats for streak situations and should have more later .....

Double Up #2 x 1U - Tampa Win +125

- strong wind blowing in from centre field and only 56 F

- Rasmussen has held Yankees to a .112 BA in 89 ABs  !!

Standard Play > Under 7 runs x HALF U @ 1.9 .... Weathers looked pretty good vs the Jays and decent numbers vs TB

Strong leans (took in my parlays with English and Italian soccer + Miami MLS):

- Under KC/Seattle (strong UNDER variance on pitching vs and style of play/wind/temp)

- Under Cubs (same as above)

- Cleveland win

- Dodgers win

- Over CWS/SF << definite bias to a lot of runs with temp/wind/SF hitting /CWS pitcher/hitting ability

....might play Texas/LAA OVER 8 as a side bet...when you see wind blowing out, and over 70F, it becomes a strong hitters park with the ball carrying to fences and gaps ....two medium to high ERA pitchers tonight who induce contact 

Kind of misfiring right now.....tight ball games 

1- 2 on the day (-1 U)

Have a big 2 Unit Play to complete my 3 chance DOUBLE UP.....will be careful with that play in the coming day or two

Thread Record

8 - 6 

+$245

So much for "induced contact." Lol....

I didn't love it to throw $50-$100 or more on it..... I sprinkled in mixers with some $5-10 parlays.... it was purely theoretical angle but, if I would have played many plays this weekend, would have got smoked.....still waiting for some direction on some teams and whether OVERS or UNDERS are going to take over going forward. Weather is still in flux quite a bit

Evidence Past 9 Days for Streaks: - nothing really shining brightly....trending yes

1. Win a 4th game in a row = 10 - 5 > tomorrow test > Miami, Houston, LAA (all with 3 in a row)

2. Lose a 4th game in a row = 5 - 10 > consider taking to win?  > Mets, Texas, Boston ?

3. Lose 5th, 6th or more game in a row? > 11 - 6 > fade Cubs?

4. Hitting an Under streak of 4 games in a row? = 10 - 6 > 3 Unders in a row = Miami, Phillies, Toronto

Double UP leg #3 - Blue Jays x 2U runline -1.5 

- I hang my hat on the most dominant young pitcher in baseball and will be as good or better than Skenes in a couple of years as he continues to refine his pitches....no one has his arm angle in baseball and he can pinpoint his stuff from it but occasionally is wild on his targets that hitters chase anyways.....

YESAVAGE illicited 0 hits for 8 ABs vs Marlins and dome will be open ... Junk is a very hittable pitcher and the Jays have already hit him 4 for 9 ABs so far

Don't follow what I do, watch what I do.... in a cold streak temporarily and don't know when I come out but I have +$CASH to support me for this $200 bet

@Last2thirst

BOL today, let’s go Jays!!!

OK, I have given myself time to see the flux in the stats shift again most likely (past 7 days) and I got through a very hard month personally and at work but lucrative (+$5K working part time 3-4 days a week but outside a lot) and now I can put my feet up for 3-4 months and enjoy the rest of the MLB season and the start of the NCAAF too 

This is one of my favorite times of the year.

I have just completed over a day, the update STREAK stats for completing 2 game streaks <<< I am of the mindset, these can be tapped more regularly if you follow the patterns OF THE TEAMS that have that tendencies that I am going to lay out over these next few posts starting right now....... (working on 3g streak tendencies next and eventually, data up to 5 game or more streaks after 56 - 60 games completed) >>> now the REAL SEASON of baseball begins!!

I will let you how these stats have change around July 1

--------------------------------------------------------------

Probability of Completing 2 Game Streaks

Any type: (W/L/Ov/Under) - highest probability

1. Toronto = 37 x 2 gamers started = 63%

2. Texas = 34 x 2 gamers = 59%

3. Boston = 33 x 2 gamers = 58%

4. Detroit = 33 x 2 gamers = 56%

Any type: (W/L/Ov/Under) - lowest probability

1. Yankees = 23 x 2 gamers = 40%

2. Chi. Cubs = 25 x 2 gamers = 42%

3. NY Mets = 25 x 2 gamers = 43%

Teams with Lowest # of 2 Game Streaks before they reverse

1. Toronto = 11x  UNDERS (max. 3 g streak)

2. Arizona = 10x OVERS (max 3 g streak)

3. Seattle = 10x UNDERS (max 3 g streak)

4. Detroit = 11x UNDERS (max 4 g streak)

5. Dodgers = 11x UNDERS (max 4 g streak)
<

Most 2 Game Win Streaks

1. Toronto = 10x  (longest = 4 gamer)

2. Milwaukee = 10x (longest = 5 gamer)

3. Washington = 9x (longest = 4 gamer)

5. Texas =  9x  (longest = 4 gamer)

6. Atlanta = 10x (longest = 6 gamer)

7. Dodgers = 10x (longest = 6 gamer)

Regular 2 Game Losing Streaks 

1. Texas = 10x (longest = 4 gamer)

2. Boston = 11x (longest = 5 gamer)

3. Washington = 9x (longest = 4 gamer)

4. Miami =  9x  (longest = 4 gamer)

5. Baltimore = 10x (longest = 5 gamer)
<

Over Streak Frequency/Great ratio to tap***

1. Washington = 11x  > longest = 6 games 

2. Cleveland = 10x > longest = 4 games

3. Arizona = 10x  > longest = 3 games

4. Texas*** = 7x  > longest = 2 games ***

UNDER Frequency/ great ratio to tap***

1. Detroit = 11x  > longest = 4 games

2. Dodgers = 11x > longest = 4 games 

3. Toronto =  11x > longest = 3 games***

4. Colorado = 10x > longest = 4 games

5. K.C    = 10x  > longest = 4 games

6. Seattle = 10x > longest = 3 games***
<

One thing I neglected to mention in the previous 4 posts......

 My DATA for 2 game streaks are premised from STARTING a two game streak so if a team goes > W, W, W and then loses, that is only a 2 game win streak (NOT 2 win streaks WITHIN a 3 game win streak) ....but after that new loss, I watch for it to win once more and then consider them for a new 2 game streak....

Will let you know how this turns out this month using the system in my KING OF COVERS competition....and will make occasional bets too

Interesting 2 game stat of the day >> Texas has NEVER gone 3 games OVER this season ! 

Most Powerful' Potential 2 Game Streak Plays that are Possible Today:

- Cleveland Over

- Washington Win

- Toronto Lose

You use my data, but don't use me > thread is 8 - 7  +$45 so far