Posted:
#26
Quote Originally Posted by pa2918:
@pjlvio Kings been on this website for a long time and hes usually always somewhere around 500. Ive tried to explain this to him before but to each his own. Honestly im not even ragging on him. He is a smart dude but hes stuck on interpreting line movement and who the public is on and betting against them, that this is gonna relate to long term success. I went through this phase myself. I used to sit and wonder and lose sleep after losing my bets and ponder over “How could vegas have let this huge public favorite win? Or how could vegas set such a small line on this team and for no reason and it cashes?” I finally realized to let that thinking go and have become a much better gambler as a result. All the great cappers on here will tell you not to worry much about line movement as we will never truly know the cause.
As a former old school contrarian bettor who worked for a huge book for over 20 years the contrarian method was a great model back in the day 1980-2000.ish... But the times they changed and the contrarian method is now a hard road leading to more of a 50% route .. Your wins are sweat bets and your losses are blowouts 90% of the time.. My friend who still runs his book (much smaller now because of legal and internet gambling) used to hate his contrarian bettors ... Now he loves them balances his books.. So if you like to sweat and hit around 50% play the game... King is right on pace ...120 plus plays up 10 units... Nice but a bumpy grind for 10 units on 120 plays.. But I will say there is some method to it you probably wont get buried but wont get rich either.. And will lose weight sweating the dogs your usually backing.. @pjlvio Kings been on this website for a long time and hes usually always somewhere around 500. Ive tried to explain this to him before but to each his own. Honestly im not even ragging on him. He is a smart dude but hes stuck on interpreting line movement and who the public is on and betting against them, that this is gonna relate to long term success. I went through this phase myself. I used to sit and wonder and lose sleep after losing my bets and ponder over “How could vegas have let this huge public favorite win? Or how could vegas set such a small line on this team and for no reason and it cashes?” I finally realized to let that thinking go and have become a much better gambler as a result. All the great cappers on here will tell you not to worry much about line movement as we will never truly know the cause.
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