Kaufee MLB (6/4/25)

Posted Record: 18-11 (+4.48 units)

I'm on the Padres tonight:

One unit at -109

One unit at +126 (-1) 

Cheers and BOL 

Let’s go 

@Kaufee

what else you got bros.? thanks for posting. A lot of games on board.

Would think SD would be -140 or higher considering Pivetta 6-2 2.74 is starting

This is truly a PK'em game and could go either way 

GL 

@Kaufee

 Bol tonight

@lopez021130 - I've looked over the whole card and that's all I got today, Lopez. 

@KingScorpio - I see it differently.  The Giants offense is a mess right now, statistically the worst offense in baseball over the last 2 weeks. A veteran like Nick Pivetta is the last thing they want to see to get right. Teams are hitting 199 against him (ranked 12th), and he brings a 1.01 WHIP (good for 15th in the majors) into the game. The Padres don't rake lefties, but they certainly hold their own, ranking 15th in that split. Kyle Harrison is a decent lefty. But he's a 23 year old, unproven kid. He should not be a pick em up against Pivetta and the veteran lineup of the Padres. And to boot, his own offense can't be expected to provide run support. Of course, anything can happen. But this is a really BAD spot for a struggling team to be in. 

@Kaufee

 All,i'm saying is that cheap line is inviting heavy S.D. action.IMO

@Kaufee

 I noticed the road teams have been killing it last 2 days and a couple more to start the day ... Was just wondering how much advantage do you give the home team in baseball ?

@KingScorpio - Fair enough, King. I also think the line is low and that's part of what attracted me. It sounds like you think they might be baiting. I don't analyze lines like that. My feeling is the books are looking for 50/50 action and will adjust accordingly. However, I respect people that look at those angles. To each his own 

@Locks_N_Loud - Good question bud. I think MLB home field advantage is okay to consider in particular cities that draw large crowds. However, even then I don't think it's very important and not something I personally care about. I'm much more into statistics, recent form, matchups, motivational angles, etc. 

kaufee 

If S.D. loses tonight i promise i'll be on them with Cease pitching on Thursday

@Kaufee

 Thank You sir ... Appreciate that !! 

@Kaufee

 Thank brother.. good luck 

And if S.D. wins tonight, will you be on the Giants at home with Ray pitching on Thursday, having dropped the first three of the four-game series? 

@FillyFlier16

 No

I think books sometimes make it a cheap line to confuse bettors.  If SD is -140 I think it would induce more action on SD, confirming our belief SD has a better chance to win.  The public loves betting favorites. 

But at a pick'em?  Now we stop and wonder why tf is the line so cheap?  And we start over thinking it and maybe pass on it altogether.  And certainly don't bet the farm on it.  One of the psychological tools sportsbooks employ imo.  But since none of us really know what sets and moves lines, I could be way off.  Just my theory.

@Kaufee

 I like them too, and I might tale you on it.  Good luck tonight!

@Kaufee

GL buddy 

Thanks everyone, appreciate your comments  

Firefly this is an excellent theory and makes perfect sense imo.   Ive come to believe this as well.  Well stated. 

King I have to put your comments to rest. It's not like k e you have been on fire as of late.

@pjlvio

 Kings been on this website for a long time and hes usually always somewhere around 500. Ive tried to explain this to him before but to each his own. Honestly im not even ragging on him. He is a smart dude but hes stuck on interpreting line movement and who the public is on and betting against them, that this is gonna relate to long term success. I went through this phase myself. I used to sit and wonder and lose sleep after losing my bets and ponder over “How could vegas have let this huge public favorite win? Or how could vegas set such a small line on this team and for no reason and it cashes?”  I finally realized to let that thinking go and have become a much better gambler as a result. All the great cappers on here will tell you not to worry much about line movement as we will never truly know the cause.