Is this a book mistake???

Big named, storied franchises like the Cubs often have skewed numbers. Over the years i've written extensively about taking advantage of bad numbers against storied franchises like the Cubs, the Yankees, the Sawks, to a lesser extent, the Indians, in football, the Cowboys, etc. I'm not certain but I think this is one of those times. Or it can just be that Fried has struggled in 2 of his last 4. As far as the total, the wind is blowing out. So much is made of the wind at Wrigley and where it's blowing. I don't track it closely enough to speak to it's validity. I know it have similar patterns to a few other ballparks that don't get nearly the same attention. What I do know is oddsmakers respond to public perception. So if you have a bunch of amateur cappers tracking the wind at Wrigley and yoi see it's blowing out, you set a high number to cover your arse. If the total is one run less, people are pounding the over. Where it's set now, people will have to think.about it.

Smack, the books surely know more than you.

One more hint Smack. If you think the books or "Vegas" make mistakes it is nothing more than your opinion. They have every asset in the world available to help them make lines. It is conceivable that ONE book could make a mistake, if they were the ONLY source of linemaking, but when two dozen or more, with independent sources, AND in house linemakers are within pennies of each other, NO, there is no mistake. You might "like" one side or the other, for whatever reason, but that does NOT make the line itself a mistake. 

Smack, it is NOT a mistake if the book makes money. If you think a team should be -160 and they are only -115, that does NOT make the line a MISTAKE. The ONLY thing that constitutes a mistake is if a book posts a line they get sided on for a ton of money and THEN LOSE. Most of the winners we pick have every bit as much money, OR MORE, on the other side. Just because the book lost to you does not mean he lost on the game, therefore; there was no mistake in his line. Let me know when the books start crying about how much money they are losing on sports. Most still have a dime line. Some, like Bovada, have gone to 20 cents, but that is their greed and their customers ignorance coming out. None are crying, and none will, They are trying to recruit more customers, so like any successful business, we have to assume they know what they are doing. 

Bro, do yourself a favor and change your book. It is IMPOSSIBLE to win with so much juice

I always thought the "books made a mistake" thing was just his shtick/theme and I think you're digging way too deep into it, Key, and giving him way too hard of a time.

and your run diff went 12-3 yesterday 

yep thanks smack

yep and still making money off  it STILL!!!

Smack the line is what it is . a point of reference only. Bettors are
very likely to perceive " Value " on both sides of it.

If you can consistently find a value point on a matchup , and are
disciplined enough to only wager on matchups where a verifiable
value is present , you will be successful at this.

Notice I underlined the words discipline , and verifiable value.
These are the skills most who wager lack, and whom bookmakers
look forward  to serving.

Smack  

FWIW ,If one does not possess the ability to accurately verify value
in a matchup and know what their wagering skill level is , it is
impossible to succeed long term at this. Bookmakers know this ,
most Bettors do not. 

line is up . moving toward  Atlanta  

 

HEY SMACH HOW COME YOU DONT POST ANY PICKS ON HERE ANYMORE DID THEY RUN YOU OFF JUST LIKE THEY DO EVERY GOOD CAPPER??