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    All Forums | MLB Betting Forum

    Is this a book mistake???

    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
    ibacku
    WISEGUY36
    StumpTownStu
    smacksmiter
    Wendubs
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    Views: 5490
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    «First Previous 123 Next Last»
     
    ibacku
    ibacku
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    Posted: Jun. 21, 2019 - 11:57 AM ET #26

    Quote Originally Posted by ScoooobyDoooo:

    whooooo caaaaaresssssss....lol people have their takes on fixes, sharps, squares, public, traps, whatever. Just bet how ya want

    yes...

    haters haters will never stop

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    Quote Originally Posted by ScoooobyDoooo:

    whooooo caaaaaresssssss....lol people have their takes on fixes, sharps, squares, public, traps, whatever. Just bet how ya want

    yes...

    haters haters will never stop

     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Jun. 21, 2019 - 12:54 PM ET #27

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





    A Bookmaker does not do this is because they are
    not capable of accurately determining the Win
    Probability of any number that they post at this time.
    When they develop this capability , the betting public's ability to
    profit at Sports Betting will become a lot more difficult.
    That is a fact.

    Sharp bettors are currently ahead of Bookmakers in this capability.

    Bookmakers are constantly striving to fix that.





    This is why Cappers should always work to improve their skills as
    their results. 




    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





    A Bookmaker does not do this is because they are
    not capable of accurately determining the Win
    Probability of any number that they post at this time.
    When they develop this capability , the betting public's ability to
    profit at Sports Betting will become a lot more difficult.
    That is a fact.

    Sharp bettors are currently ahead of Bookmakers in this capability.

    Bookmakers are constantly striving to fix that.





    This is why Cappers should always work to improve their skills as
    their results. 




     
    WISEGUY36
    WISEGUY36
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    Posted: Jun. 21, 2019 - 12:55 PM ET #28

    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





    This is why Cappers should always work to improve their skills as
    well as their results. 






    Correction  
    Helping Kama'aina to beat their " Local " since 1994.
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    Quote Originally Posted by WISEGUY36:





    This is why Cappers should always work to improve their skills as
    well as their results. 






    Correction  
     
    StumpTownStu
    StumpTownStu
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    Posted: Jun. 21, 2019 - 1:18 PM ET #29

    Quote Originally Posted by PlayWithThem:

    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    To put it in Layman's terms for the uninitiated. If i'm a book, and I have 50 people bet $110 @ -110 on one side of a wager, and another 50 people bet $110 @ -110 on the other side, then the losers pay the winners and I walk with my $500 with zero risk. And I can do this over and over again, with no risk, and it's like printing money. I'm not gambling. I'm providing a service and charging a service fee. That' what the juice is. It's a service fee. This is why it even exists. Now ponder that i'm that same book and I want to push people towards one side of a wager. Now instead of 50/50, it's 80/20. Now i'm gambling on factors I have no control over. I'm exposing myself to loss. And that makes no sense. Again, these aren't my opinions. I have no opinions about this stuff, as it is inconsequential to me. These are just the facts.
    I think the view of the bookies only/main goal is to balance action is wrong. Let me give you two reasons why I think this:- Sportsbooks are a business. The goal of a business is to maximize profit not to minimize risk. Oddsmakers have much more power than your typical bettor: faster computers, algorithms, experience, and even inside knowledge. You think they would have all this advantage go to waste and settle merely for a 2.4% commission (which is what a ten cent line provides for the books)?- If all sportsbooks balanced their action, you would see different lines for books in California than those in New York. You'd expect a much higher percentage of people betting on the Yankees in the east coast as supposed to the west. Yet, the lines are often identical. If books balanced their action, this would create hedging opportunities where the hedger would pit the books against themselves. Do you think the books would want that?

    It happens all the time. It's call middling. They are aware of it. It's a drop in the bucket. They don't care.

    Look, the things i'm saying are not my opinions. These are facts. If you want to know how this industry works, the info and opportunity is out there. This isn't some clandestine secret society type of stuff. This stuff is all general accessible knowledge.

    I know everybody things "sports wagering is this multibillion dollar industry" so there's all of this gamesmanship and backroom goings on influencing the industry. The reality is for as big an industry as it is, it has one of the lowest profit margains for a casino. It used to be the lowest, and probably still is, but it's been a while since i've researched it and the industry has grown. Sports wagering is the lumber of the casino's proverbial lumber yard. You see, lumber yards don't make a huge profit on actual lumber. When yoi figure in labor and damage goods, some of them lose money on it. They have to carry it though..... because they are lumber yards. Do you know where they make their profit? Screws. Nuts & bolts. Things that cost a few cents each. Casino's make there money on table games. Slot machines. Hosting conventions. Charging $20 for the same drink in a club that is free to someone sitting at a penny slot. Sports wagering does bring in huge dollars but there is no reason to mess with a sure thing money making system to start gambling. Most gamblers lose in the long run. Even some of the very best. Casinos.... "Vegas", is more interested in the long term guaranteed money and that's why they always win. I can't say it enough times, these are not my opinions. These are facts. And this isn't confidential information. This stuff is very basic and common knowledge.

    R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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    Quote Originally Posted by PlayWithThem:

    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    To put it in Layman's terms for the uninitiated. If i'm a book, and I have 50 people bet $110 @ -110 on one side of a wager, and another 50 people bet $110 @ -110 on the other side, then the losers pay the winners and I walk with my $500 with zero risk. And I can do this over and over again, with no risk, and it's like printing money. I'm not gambling. I'm providing a service and charging a service fee. That' what the juice is. It's a service fee. This is why it even exists. Now ponder that i'm that same book and I want to push people towards one side of a wager. Now instead of 50/50, it's 80/20. Now i'm gambling on factors I have no control over. I'm exposing myself to loss. And that makes no sense. Again, these aren't my opinions. I have no opinions about this stuff, as it is inconsequential to me. These are just the facts.
    I think the view of the bookies only/main goal is to balance action is wrong. Let me give you two reasons why I think this:- Sportsbooks are a business. The goal of a business is to maximize profit not to minimize risk. Oddsmakers have much more power than your typical bettor: faster computers, algorithms, experience, and even inside knowledge. You think they would have all this advantage go to waste and settle merely for a 2.4% commission (which is what a ten cent line provides for the books)?- If all sportsbooks balanced their action, you would see different lines for books in California than those in New York. You'd expect a much higher percentage of people betting on the Yankees in the east coast as supposed to the west. Yet, the lines are often identical. If books balanced their action, this would create hedging opportunities where the hedger would pit the books against themselves. Do you think the books would want that?

    It happens all the time. It's call middling. They are aware of it. It's a drop in the bucket. They don't care.

    Look, the things i'm saying are not my opinions. These are facts. If you want to know how this industry works, the info and opportunity is out there. This isn't some clandestine secret society type of stuff. This stuff is all general accessible knowledge.

    I know everybody things "sports wagering is this multibillion dollar industry" so there's all of this gamesmanship and backroom goings on influencing the industry. The reality is for as big an industry as it is, it has one of the lowest profit margains for a casino. It used to be the lowest, and probably still is, but it's been a while since i've researched it and the industry has grown. Sports wagering is the lumber of the casino's proverbial lumber yard. You see, lumber yards don't make a huge profit on actual lumber. When yoi figure in labor and damage goods, some of them lose money on it. They have to carry it though..... because they are lumber yards. Do you know where they make their profit? Screws. Nuts & bolts. Things that cost a few cents each. Casino's make there money on table games. Slot machines. Hosting conventions. Charging $20 for the same drink in a club that is free to someone sitting at a penny slot. Sports wagering does bring in huge dollars but there is no reason to mess with a sure thing money making system to start gambling. Most gamblers lose in the long run. Even some of the very best. Casinos.... "Vegas", is more interested in the long term guaranteed money and that's why they always win. I can't say it enough times, these are not my opinions. These are facts. And this isn't confidential information. This stuff is very basic and common knowledge.

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 21, 2019 - 8:50 PM ET #30

    Back to the game....

    6 runs in scored now and in the 3rd inning...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Back to the game....

    6 runs in scored now and in the 3rd inning...

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 11:05 AM ET #31

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Found another one...Chicago White Sox/Texas....Lopez/Jurado

    Both of these pitchers can start a fire...but the books have Jurado as a -138 this morning...

    C'mon now  ...are you kidding me?...


    Jurado and Texas with their lineup injuries should not be favored at -138 here...at best this is a PUSH game...

    Strong over probability at 11.5 O/U... surprised it isn't higher...



    The White Sox SQUEAK one out in OT 5-4...that game should have gone over like rover so many time...

    Nevermind......

    Might have found one here......

    Why in the HELL is a AAA call up favored -181 over a very decent starter in the Detroit/Cleveland game??????......

    Ok..ok...Detroit sucks and Cleveland is hot...but Turnbull has been a very bright spot for them this year in spite of his last poor outing...

    He should bounce back and the +161 value here is just too big to pass up...

    Damn books giving away money AGAIN today......

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Found another one...Chicago White Sox/Texas....Lopez/Jurado

    Both of these pitchers can start a fire...but the books have Jurado as a -138 this morning...

    C'mon now  ...are you kidding me?...


    Jurado and Texas with their lineup injuries should not be favored at -138 here...at best this is a PUSH game...

    Strong over probability at 11.5 O/U... surprised it isn't higher...



    The White Sox SQUEAK one out in OT 5-4...that game should have gone over like rover so many time...

    Nevermind......

    Might have found one here......

    Why in the HELL is a AAA call up favored -181 over a very decent starter in the Detroit/Cleveland game??????......

    Ok..ok...Detroit sucks and Cleveland is hot...but Turnbull has been a very bright spot for them this year in spite of his last poor outing...

    He should bounce back and the +161 value here is just too big to pass up...

    Damn books giving away money AGAIN today......

     
    Wendubs
    Wendubs
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 11:10 AM ET #32

    Like it Smack, hell, I like the First 5 ML at +150 a little better yet...Turnbull vs the AA Rook, book'em

    Any updates on the Run Diff Thread? Been missing it!!

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    Like it Smack, hell, I like the First 5 ML at +150 a little better yet...Turnbull vs the AA Rook, book'em

    Any updates on the Run Diff Thread? Been missing it!!

     
    smacksmiter
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 11:22 AM ET #33

    Quote Originally Posted by Wendubs:

    Like it Smack, hell, I like the First 5 ML at +150 a little better yet...Turnbull vs the AA Rook, book'em

    Any updates on the Run Diff Thread? Been missing it!!


    Still tracking it but not posting for now...it will probably return at some point though...

    Glad to hear we are on the same page here mah man!...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by Wendubs:

    Like it Smack, hell, I like the First 5 ML at +150 a little better yet...Turnbull vs the AA Rook, book'em

    Any updates on the Run Diff Thread? Been missing it!!


    Still tracking it but not posting for now...it will probably return at some point though...

    Glad to hear we are on the same page here mah man!...

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 11:24 AM ET #34

    The line on this game is now -189/+174...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    The line on this game is now -189/+174...

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 11:55 AM ET #35

    Got to admit...I'm more than a little surprised someone has not come in here and debunked this free money claim...

    C'mon...surely someone will play devil's advocate and call me out on this Detroit selection...

    The Tigers suck...right?... AMIRITE???...
    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Got to admit...I'm more than a little surprised someone has not come in here and debunked this free money claim...

    C'mon...surely someone will play devil's advocate and call me out on this Detroit selection...

    The Tigers suck...right?... AMIRITE???...
     
    StumpTownStu
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 12:06 PM ET #36

    I think he might be a AA call up. Maybe one AAA start? Either way, I can't take this ride. Turnbull has regressed a bit and Detroit sux. I'm not taking the other side, as I never feel confortable backing Cleveland, but definitely staying away. Spot start call ups often do good these days.

    R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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    I think he might be a AA call up. Maybe one AAA start? Either way, I can't take this ride. Turnbull has regressed a bit and Detroit sux. I'm not taking the other side, as I never feel confortable backing Cleveland, but definitely staying away. Spot start call ups often do good these days.

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 12:09 PM ET #37

    Alright...since everyone obviously LOVES the Detroit free money for today...going to slap you with another bookie mistake...

    Baltimore sucks...surely we can all agree on that...right?...

    0-10 in their last 10...4-16 last 20...6-24 last 30...

    Cashner doesn't suck...and he is +161 right now...Seattle, as has been discussed many times this year, has a very bad defense...as in ...worst defense in the last 10 years possibly...

    Anytime you play them, you can have results like last night where they are up 10-3 and end up squeaking out a 10-9 win...that defense builds some added value...combine it with Cashner and it's definitely worth a play...

    Not saying BIG play...but a play...



    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Alright...since everyone obviously LOVES the Detroit free money for today...going to slap you with another bookie mistake...

    Baltimore sucks...surely we can all agree on that...right?...

    0-10 in their last 10...4-16 last 20...6-24 last 30...

    Cashner doesn't suck...and he is +161 right now...Seattle, as has been discussed many times this year, has a very bad defense...as in ...worst defense in the last 10 years possibly...

    Anytime you play them, you can have results like last night where they are up 10-3 and end up squeaking out a 10-9 win...that defense builds some added value...combine it with Cashner and it's definitely worth a play...

    Not saying BIG play...but a play...



     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 12:14 PM ET #38

    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    I think he might be a AA call up. Maybe one AAA start? Either way, I can't take this ride. Turnbull has regressed a bit and Detroit sux. I'm not taking the other side, as I never feel confortable backing Cleveland, but definitely staying away. Spot start call ups often do good these days.


    I thought someone might bring up Turnbull's one game "regression"...it's worth noting that he recently was on the bereavement list...did a short search trying to find out who died as usually it's a close family member like father/mother/grandfather/grandmother but couldn't find the information...

    Those kinds of losses could account for that one game "regression"...might even affect him today...just don't know...

    But, imo, "regression" might be a bit of a strong word for a one game performance dip...

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    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    I think he might be a AA call up. Maybe one AAA start? Either way, I can't take this ride. Turnbull has regressed a bit and Detroit sux. I'm not taking the other side, as I never feel confortable backing Cleveland, but definitely staying away. Spot start call ups often do good these days.


    I thought someone might bring up Turnbull's one game "regression"...it's worth noting that he recently was on the bereavement list...did a short search trying to find out who died as usually it's a close family member like father/mother/grandfather/grandmother but couldn't find the information...

    Those kinds of losses could account for that one game "regression"...might even affect him today...just don't know...

    But, imo, "regression" might be a bit of a strong word for a one game performance dip...

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 12:32 PM ET #39

    So...let's see here...combining some value plays here...what kind of payout can we get?......

    3 team parlay...

    Toronto/Boston OVER 11 (-110)
    Detroit (+173)
    Baltimore (+161)

    $100 pays $1260...

    Seems like that should be higher as we are taking 2 of the worst teams in baseball...but whatever...12.6 to 1 is not too bad...

    Stealing your play "The Square"...don't let me down brutha...!...

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    So...let's see here...combining some value plays here...what kind of payout can we get?......

    3 team parlay...

    Toronto/Boston OVER 11 (-110)
    Detroit (+173)
    Baltimore (+161)

    $100 pays $1260...

    Seems like that should be higher as we are taking 2 of the worst teams in baseball...but whatever...12.6 to 1 is not too bad...

    Stealing your play "The Square"...don't let me down brutha...!...

     
    aaironworks
    aaironworks
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 12:50 PM ET #40

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    So...let's see here...combining some value plays here...what kind of payout can we get?......

    3 team parlay...

    Toronto/Boston OVER 11 (-110)
    Detroit (+173)
    Baltimore (+161)

    $100 pays $1260...

    Seems like that should be higher as we are taking 2 of the worst teams in baseball...but whatever...12.6 to 1 is not too bad...

    Stealing your play "The Square"...don't let me down brutha...!...


    I agree with a higher payout , but always looks good lol

    BOL
    “It’s not a lie, if you believe it”
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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    So...let's see here...combining some value plays here...what kind of payout can we get?......

    3 team parlay...

    Toronto/Boston OVER 11 (-110)
    Detroit (+173)
    Baltimore (+161)

    $100 pays $1260...

    Seems like that should be higher as we are taking 2 of the worst teams in baseball...but whatever...12.6 to 1 is not too bad...

    Stealing your play "The Square"...don't let me down brutha...!...


    I agree with a higher payout , but always looks good lol

    BOL
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 3:36 PM ET #41

    Quote Originally Posted by aaironworks:


    I agree with a higher payout , but always looks good lol

    BOL

    Yep...they always look good until the baseballs start to fly...

    Good luck today!...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by aaironworks:


    I agree with a higher payout , but always looks good lol

    BOL

    Yep...they always look good until the baseballs start to fly...

    Good luck today!...

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 5:40 PM ET #42

    Cy Young...er....Aaron Civale pitching for the Indians today...

    How did the books know that an AA pitcher was going to pitch a complete game shutout today?...

    I mean...pull a guy up from AA and just slap a -180 on his a$$ and make money...

    Seems logical to me...

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    Cy Young...er....Aaron Civale pitching for the Indians today...

    How did the books know that an AA pitcher was going to pitch a complete game shutout today?...

    I mean...pull a guy up from AA and just slap a -180 on his a$$ and make money...

    Seems logical to me...

     
    StumpTownStu
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 7:01 PM ET #43

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    I think he might be a AA call up. Maybe one AAA start? Either way, I can't take this ride. Turnbull has regressed a bit and Detroit sux. I'm not taking the other side, as I never feel confortable backing Cleveland, but definitely staying away. Spot start call ups often do good these days.
    I thought someone might bring up Turnbull's one game "regression"...it's worth noting that he recently was on the bereavement list...did a short search trying to find out who died as usually it's a close family member like father/mother/grandfather/grandmother but couldn't find the information...Those kinds of losses could account for that one game "regression"...might even affect him today...just don't know...But, imo, "regression" might be a bit of a strong word for a one game performance dip...

    Actually I was referring to 2 of his last 3 and 3 of his last 5. He didn't pitch great today either. His ERA would extrapolate out to slightly over 4 and his WHIP would be slightly under 2. I typically don't like the term "regression" but I think it was valid here.

    R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    I think he might be a AA call up. Maybe one AAA start? Either way, I can't take this ride. Turnbull has regressed a bit and Detroit sux. I'm not taking the other side, as I never feel confortable backing Cleveland, but definitely staying away. Spot start call ups often do good these days.
    I thought someone might bring up Turnbull's one game "regression"...it's worth noting that he recently was on the bereavement list...did a short search trying to find out who died as usually it's a close family member like father/mother/grandfather/grandmother but couldn't find the information...Those kinds of losses could account for that one game "regression"...might even affect him today...just don't know...But, imo, "regression" might be a bit of a strong word for a one game performance dip...

    Actually I was referring to 2 of his last 3 and 3 of his last 5. He didn't pitch great today either. His ERA would extrapolate out to slightly over 4 and his WHIP would be slightly under 2. I typically don't like the term "regression" but I think it was valid here.

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 7:04 PM ET #44

    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    I thought someone might bring up Turnbull's one game "regression"...it's worth noting that he recently was on the bereavement list...did a short search trying to find out who died as usually it's a close family member like father/mother/grandfather/grandmother but couldn't find the information...Those kinds of losses could account for that one game "regression"...might even affect him today...just don't know...But, imo, "regression" might be a bit of a strong word for a one game performance dip...

    Actually I was referring to 2 of his last 3 and 3 of his last 5. He didn't pitch great today either. His ERA would extrapolate out to slightly over 4 and his WHIP would be slightly under 2. I typically don't like the term "regression" but I think it was valid here.


    He certainly was not great today...scuffed around a bit but still only 2 runs...the Tigers just couldn't hit a AA call up throwing a fastball at 85 mph...

    Pretty sick loss imo...

    PM for the skinny on the down low
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    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    I thought someone might bring up Turnbull's one game "regression"...it's worth noting that he recently was on the bereavement list...did a short search trying to find out who died as usually it's a close family member like father/mother/grandfather/grandmother but couldn't find the information...Those kinds of losses could account for that one game "regression"...might even affect him today...just don't know...But, imo, "regression" might be a bit of a strong word for a one game performance dip...

    Actually I was referring to 2 of his last 3 and 3 of his last 5. He didn't pitch great today either. His ERA would extrapolate out to slightly over 4 and his WHIP would be slightly under 2. I typically don't like the term "regression" but I think it was valid here.


    He certainly was not great today...scuffed around a bit but still only 2 runs...the Tigers just couldn't hit a AA call up throwing a fastball at 85 mph...

    Pretty sick loss imo...

     
    StumpTownStu
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 7:07 PM ET #45

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Cy Young...er....Aaron Civale pitching for the Indians today...How did the books know that an AA pitcher was going to pitch a complete game shutout today?...I mean...pull a guy up from AA and just slap a -180 on his a$$ and make money...Seems logical to me...

    Against one of the worst, if not the worst, offense in the league. I read like two scouting reports on the kid and i'm not shocked by the results so you know the oddsmakers aren't.

    R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Cy Young...er....Aaron Civale pitching for the Indians today...How did the books know that an AA pitcher was going to pitch a complete game shutout today?...I mean...pull a guy up from AA and just slap a -180 on his a$$ and make money...Seems logical to me...

    Against one of the worst, if not the worst, offense in the league. I read like two scouting reports on the kid and i'm not shocked by the results so you know the oddsmakers aren't.

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 7:10 PM ET #46

    On the bright side...

    Baltimore is going to break it's 10 game losing streak...

    I'll take that one...

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    On the bright side...

    Baltimore is going to break it's 10 game losing streak...

    I'll take that one...

     
    StumpTownStu
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 7:14 PM ET #47

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    I thought someone might bring up Turnbull's one game "regression"...it's worth noting that he recently was on the bereavement list...did a short search trying to find out who died as usually it's a close family member like father/mother/grandfather/grandmother but couldn't find the information...Those kinds of losses could account for that one game "regression"...might even affect him today...just don't know...But, imo, "regression" might be a bit of a strong word for a one game performance dip... Actually I was referring to 2 of his last 3 and 3 of his last 5. He didn't pitch great today either. His ERA would extrapolate out to slightly over 4 and his WHIP would be slightly under 2. I typically don't like the term "regression" but I think it was valid here.
    He certainly was not great today...scuffed around a bit but still only 2 runs...the Tigers just couldn't hit a AA call up throwing a fastball at 85 mph...Pretty sick loss imo...

    Cleveland actually had more of an advantage here. Turnbull has played for a rival for the last couple years. They've seen 'em. And like I said earlier, these spot start call ups often do well. Guys haven't seen them. And besides, there's no real hitters left that could take advantage of a kid like this. Rattle him. Work him deep into counts. These guys just throw their bats out there and try to hit homers.

    R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    I thought someone might bring up Turnbull's one game "regression"...it's worth noting that he recently was on the bereavement list...did a short search trying to find out who died as usually it's a close family member like father/mother/grandfather/grandmother but couldn't find the information...Those kinds of losses could account for that one game "regression"...might even affect him today...just don't know...But, imo, "regression" might be a bit of a strong word for a one game performance dip... Actually I was referring to 2 of his last 3 and 3 of his last 5. He didn't pitch great today either. His ERA would extrapolate out to slightly over 4 and his WHIP would be slightly under 2. I typically don't like the term "regression" but I think it was valid here.
    He certainly was not great today...scuffed around a bit but still only 2 runs...the Tigers just couldn't hit a AA call up throwing a fastball at 85 mph...Pretty sick loss imo...

    Cleveland actually had more of an advantage here. Turnbull has played for a rival for the last couple years. They've seen 'em. And like I said earlier, these spot start call ups often do well. Guys haven't seen them. And besides, there's no real hitters left that could take advantage of a kid like this. Rattle him. Work him deep into counts. These guys just throw their bats out there and try to hit homers.

     
    StumpTownStu
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 7:21 PM ET #48

    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    On the bright side...Baltimore is going to break it's 10 game losing streak...I'll take that one...

    You nailed this game in a big way. Should've sprinkled a little on the reverse RL.

    R.I.P. #94 MARSHAWN KNEELAND - DC4L
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    Quote Originally Posted by smacksmiter:

    On the bright side...Baltimore is going to break it's 10 game losing streak...I'll take that one...

    You nailed this game in a big way. Should've sprinkled a little on the reverse RL.

     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 7:22 PM ET #49

    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    He certainly was not great today...scuffed around a bit but still only 2 runs...the Tigers just couldn't hit a AA call up throwing a fastball at 85 mph...Pretty sick loss imo...

    Cleveland actually had more of an advantage here. Turnbull has played for a rival for the last couple years. They've seen 'em. And like I said earlier, these spot start call ups often do well. Guys haven't seen them. And besides, there's no real hitters left that could take advantage of a kid like this. Rattle him. Work him deep into counts. These guys just throw their bats out there and try to hit homers.


    My friend, I lost the bet...but you won't convince me that a team of professional MLB hitters should not have been able to score on a an AA call up...

    Overconfidence is a real thing but the stuff he was throwing up at that plate should have been crushed imo...

    But...obviously, the books and Cleveland bettors know much more than me...so...

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    Quote Originally Posted by StumpTownStu:

    He certainly was not great today...scuffed around a bit but still only 2 runs...the Tigers just couldn't hit a AA call up throwing a fastball at 85 mph...Pretty sick loss imo...

    Cleveland actually had more of an advantage here. Turnbull has played for a rival for the last couple years. They've seen 'em. And like I said earlier, these spot start call ups often do well. Guys haven't seen them. And besides, there's no real hitters left that could take advantage of a kid like this. Rattle him. Work him deep into counts. These guys just throw their bats out there and try to hit homers.


    My friend, I lost the bet...but you won't convince me that a team of professional MLB hitters should not have been able to score on a an AA call up...

    Overconfidence is a real thing but the stuff he was throwing up at that plate should have been crushed imo...

    But...obviously, the books and Cleveland bettors know much more than me...so...

     
     
    smacksmiter
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    Posted: Jun. 22, 2019 - 8:58 PM ET #50

    I'm posting another book mistake...

    The Rangers rock tonight...

    Taking the F5 ML and the RL ...

    Good luck!...



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    I'm posting another book mistake...

    The Rangers rock tonight...

    Taking the F5 ML and the RL ...

    Good luck!...



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