In Kyle We Trust (at least for the 1st 5 innings)

I began looking at this A's/Cubs matchup and the first thing I noticed was that their overall won/loss records are deceiving given that this game is being played in Chicago.  The A's are 64-48 while the Cubs are just 60-51.  If you look no further than that, the A's +145 seems to have value.  But, both of these teams have something in common - they both play much better at home.  The A's are 37-23 in Oakland but barely over .500 on the road (27-25).  The Cubs are awful on the road at just 21-33, but at Wrigley Field they're the fourth best home team in baseball at 39-18.  So that got me looking in their direction, and the pitching matchup of Kyle Hendricks vs. Chris Bassitt got me looking closer at the first 5 innings.

Kyle Hendricks will be making his 10th start of the season at Wrigley Field tonight.  Let's take a look at what he did in the first 5 innings of each of his previous 9 home starts.  He's pitched at least 6 innings in every home start this season, but these are the results of the first 5 innings.

July 21st vs. the Padres - 1 earned run allowed

July 15th vs. the Reds - 1 earned run allowed

June 9th vs. the Cardinals - 1 earned run allowed

June 4th vs. the Rockies - 2 earned runs allowed

May 24th vs. the Reds - 1 earned run allowed

May 8th vs. the Marlins - 0 earned runs allowed

May 3rd vs. the Cardinals - 0 earned runs allowed

April 19th vs. the D-Backs - 0 earned runs allowed

April 13th vs. the Angels - 2 earned runs allowed

Pretty great, right?  Hendricks has allowed just 8 earned runs over those 45 innings of work.  Now let's look at what A's starter Chris Bassitt has done in the first 5 innings of his 10 road starts (hint...it's not as good).

July 24th at the Astros - 4 earned runs allowed

July 19th at the Twins - 2 earned runs allowed

July 6th at the Mariners - 6 earned runs allowed (pulled after 4.1 innings)

June 30th at the Angels - 1 earned run allowed

June 25th at the Cardinals - 3 earned runs allowed (pulled after 3.1 innings)

June 8th at the Rangers - 2 earned runs allowed

May 21st at the Indians - 3 earned runs allowed (pulled after 3.2 innings)

May 16th at the Tigers -  0 earned runs allowed

May 4th at the Pirates - 3 earned runs allowed

April 28th at the Blue Jays - 1 earned run allowed

Bassitt pitched 46 and a third of a possible 50 innings and allowed 25 earned runs for an ERA just under 5.00.  Kyle Hendricks' ERA this season at home in the first 5 innings is 1.60.  Basically, you can figure on Hendricks allowing one earned run over the first 5 innings of a home start while Bassitt has averaged giving up two and a half earned runs in the first 5 innings of his road starts (not that he always completes the 5 innings).  You'd think the scumbag oddsmakers would've pumped up this 1st 5 inning line, but they didn't, and that's why I laid -145 and -150 this morning.  Do what you want with this information and good luck tonight.

anything else stand out on todays card?

GL Mr.Bator always good to cya & GL as well

the comforts of Home

My upset call of the day is on the Orioles +220 and +1.5 +150. No better time to catch the Yanks at less than their best than after a rowdy weekend of pummeling those emotionally dead bums from Boston.  The great D.J. LeMahieu is back in the lineup, yes, and so is Didi Gregorius, but Masahiro Tanaka's been covered in gasoline and playing with matches for a few weeks now.  The Orioles are starting a reliver named Gabriel Ynoa.  Ynoa him?  Well, he's been pretty effective, allowing just 3 earned runs over his last 14.1 innings spanning his last 6 appearances. It was Ynoa's 4.1 innings of 2-hit, 1-run relief against the Nationals back on July 17th that triggered this successful stretch of play for Baltimore.  Going into that game, the O's were a wretched 28-65, but Ynoa relieved Aaron Brooks in the top of the 3rd with the game tied 1-1 and the Orioles went on to a shocking 9-2 win.  Ynoa got the win in relief.  That began this stretch in which the Orioles have won 10 of their last 17 games. 

Great wrietup MrBator and you sold me for the F5 Cubs moneyline.  On a side note, I must compliment you on your grammar and formatting of your write up.. 

Very misleading stats ... a’s are 22-10 on the road since May 16th ... everyone knows Oakland is probably the best second half team this decade .. they know how to turn it on.. I am a Kyle Hendricks fan tho.. so I would say this game is a toss up at best with value on the a’s .. half of those 10 losses are too the Astros and twins .. teams of much higher caliber than the cubs.. cubs lineup is downright awful at the moment .. just throwing some opposition to your argument .. only thing is a’s are leaving tons of runners on base .. and Hendricks is great at stranding runners 

Also I don’t see Hendricks home starts against the Dodgers braves phillies nationals brewers etc he has benefitted from facing weaker lineups at home in a very pitcher friendly park 

A Master sighting!

WB my old friend. I do not come on here much anymore as it has turned into a bunch of whining blamers or billowing sycophants but now that you are back, I may check in once in a while.

Covers should pay you some money, you are the only thing interesting in these threads

Crash

Un 1st 5innings i doubt it goes to 6 

If my caculations are correct hayward doesnt score today cubs only score 4 maby 5 today and oak 4 or 5 also 

here we go, bottom of the 5th, lets go cubs