Ignore These Pitcher Stats at your Own Risk!

Good Afternoon, All!

Though it might not seem like it 'cause two of my selections lost (I knew I shouldn't be giving out games!), I did quite well yesterday, as you can see from Covers' daily record. Would be much higher if Ax hadn't blown it for kid pitcher Fiers of Brewers. Could have been death knell for Milwaukee.

https://contests.covers.com/sportscontests/picksByDate.aspx?date=07/16/2012&ur=388597&contestID=19684&sportID=5

I think you'll find the following interesting. I tried to cut down from my book length post of yesterday. I'm a writer, and I know “Less is more” in writing! Well, now I go and try to win a million by picking all 15 winners in MLB.com's contest. (Yeah, I know: I have a better chance of ScarJo buying me a drink!

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--Marlins will face red-hot Chicago left-hander Travis Wood, who has won his last four starts. Wood will oppose Florida’s Anibal Sanchez, who has won only twice in his last 12 starts. Chicago is 4-0 in Wood’s last four starts (three as underdog) and the lefty has produced a quality start in six of his last seven trips to the bump.

--The Cardinals are scheduled to turn to Joe Kelly (1-1, 2.70 ERA), who hasn't allowed more than three runs in any of his six starts since being recalled from Triple-A Memphis last month. The Brewers are scheduled to give the ball to Randy Wolf (2-6, 5.80), who hasn't won since beating San Diego on April 30. He's 0-4 with a 5.42 ERA in 13 games -- 12 starts -- since that victory. The left-hander has been particularly bad over his last four starts, compiling an 8.34 ERA while yielding seven homers in 22 2/3 innings.

--Oakland seeks to improve to 10-1 this month while Bartolo Colon looks to continue his dominance of visiting Texas in the opener of a two-game set Tuesday night. The right-hander's 18 wins over Texas are his most versus any team. He allowed five hits in eight innings of a 2-0 win over the Rangers on June 6, improving to 13-1 with a 2.98 ERA in his last 15 starts against them.

Roy Oswalt had a bounce-back outing his last time out, and he'll look to build on that effort Tuesday.Oswalt (2-1, 6.26) gave up one run in 5 2/3 innings of a 4-3, 13-inning win over Minnesota on July 8 -- five days after allowing a career-high 11 runs in a 19-2 loss to the White Sox.

Oakland 12 of 13 at home versus right-hand starter.

--With the rest of the Pirates’ rotation 27-14, Bedard is the weakest link. He has allowed 14 runs (13 earned) and 20 hits in 14 1/3 innings over his last three starts. Bedard is 2-7 with a 6.60 ERA in nine road starts this season and has lost his last five outings on the road.

--Opposing hurler a tad better, which isn't saying much. Since the Rockies began using a four-man rotation on June 19, Friedrich is 1-3 with a 5.61 ERA in five starts. He has allowed 16 runs, 31 hits, walked five and struck out 31 in 25 2/3 innings during that span.

--Reds 10 and 1 in Cueto's last 11 home starts.

--CWS' Humber posted a 7.47 ERA in 10 starts before the disabled list stint, with the worst coming against the Red Sox on April 26. Probably why BoSox are -176, BUT Red Sox are 1-9 in Lesters last 10 home starts vs. a team with a winning record. (I'm taking CWS on a flyer.)

--Braves' Jurrjens impressed in four starts following a two-month minor-league stint to fix his mechanics. The right-hander is 3-0 with a 2.13 ERA since returning from the minors, allowing only one homer in 25 1/3 innings. Braves are 7 and 0 last 7, and 7 and 1 last 8 Jurrjens' home starts vs. team with a winning record. (All probable reasons why Braves -142 vs. division leaders.)

--Tampa Bay's Moore has walked 14 and struck out 17 in his last four outings after walking nine and striking out 31 in his previous four games. Tampa Bay is 0-4 against the American League Central in games started by Moore. And Rays are 2-10 in their last 12 games as a favorite. Yet TB -152 today.

--Astros' Lyles, who gave up two runs over seven innings against Milwaukee in his final start before the All-Star break, has a 6.67 ERA in six road outings. Padres' Ohlendorf is 0-6 with a 6.43 ERA in 12 career appearances (10 starts) against Houston. Ohlendorf’s last two appearances have come in relief, with his last start coming on June 25 against the Astros when he gave up five runs over 3 2/3 innings.

And the Over/Under in this one is only 7, despite the spacious San Diego venue!

Speaking of totals, here are two possible Overs if, unlike most of us, you have some discretionary money to blow:

--Over SF/Atlanta. San Francisco 15 and 3 Over this season on a road game coming after a home win.
--Over Philly/LA. Philly 33 and 13 Over this season when playing a team with a winning record. (Negative: Halladay returning for Phillies; Positive: Barney Fife relative on the bump for Dodgers.)