Posted:
#51
you might be right...better to be safe than sorry
maybe we'll both win then
maybe we'll both win then
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I cant lose!!
Posted:
#54
Your logic seems a bit whack to me, the O's line opened at about -125 yesterady and has been battered by the public to around -160 today.
I saw in another thread that the public is picking O's 79% on one consensus site.
You are saying go against the grain but pick the O's, seems pretty clear to me that Vegas wants A's in this game to make money......
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Posted:
#55
Quote Originally Posted by GiLmo574:
Ummm... Tampa is favored because of GARZA. They shouldn't be the favorite. Taking the RAYS is a sucker bet. Sucker.
Ummm... Tampa is favored because of GARZA. They shouldn't be the favorite. Taking the RAYS is a sucker bet. Sucker. But I do fully understand your theory. I do. Angels +moneyline = everyone will take them... Rays will slump till they get back home.
Just make sure you come back later ok?
we will see who's the sucker.....
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Posted:
#57
Although your making a horribly confusing argument, I understand exactly what you mean. I bet along the same lines. It's all about public perception when it comes to gambling. That's it. The books know what games are going to draw the most public attention and they capitlize on it.
I've said it before, I'll say it again... fear rules. The books know that the general betting public fears losing money. So what does the general betting public do? They turn to teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals, Dodgers and Phillies because they think those teams are giving them the best chances to win. They load up on pitchers like Halladay, Cain, Lincecum and Santana because they think these pitchers are giving them the best chances to win. More importantly, they turn to these teams and pitchers because of one reason... THEY DON'T WANT TO LOSE! And unfortuantley, that's where most people LOSE.
Here's a prime example. New York is just coming off a sweep against Boston. The news is plastered all over ESPN. The game was ON ESPN. The Yankees now a have compfortable lead on the Sox in the A.L. East. They are the best in the Majors right now. So today, the Yankees get to play the Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium. I think we can all agree that this SHOULD be an easy victory for the Yankees. The Jays have a rookie pitcher on the mound, they ain't much of a team etc. If the Yankees could handle the Red Sox, then playing the Jays should be a walk in the park. The public loads up on the Bronx Bombers. And the rest is history. Toronto wins and vegas owns the public once again.
Same thing with Florida. They come off a sweep of the Phillies and now everyone turns to them. Houston is garbage team. It should be a cakewalk. The public loads up on the fish. And the rest is history. Houston wins and vegas owns the public once again.
And on and on it goes.
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Posted:
#62
Quote Originally Posted by Canada_Chris:
Although your making a horribly confusing argument, I understand exactly what you mean. I bet along the same lines. It's all about public perception when it comes to gambling. That's it. The books know what games are going to draw the most public attention and they capitlize on it.
I've said it before, I'll say it again... fear rules. The books know that the general betting public fears losing money. So what does the general betting public do? They turn to teams like the Yankees, Red Sox, Cardinals, Dodgers and Phillies because they think those teams are giving them the best chances to win. They load up on pitchers like Halladay, Cain, Lincecum and Santana because they think these pitchers are giving them the best chances to win. More importantly, they turn to these teams and pitchers because of one reason... THEY DON'T WANT TO LOSE! And unfortuantley, that's where most people LOSE.
Here's a prime example. New York is just coming off a sweep against Boston. The news is plastered all over ESPN. The game was ON ESPN. The Yankees now a have compfortable lead on the Sox in the A.L. East. They are the best in the Majors right now. So today, the Yankees get to play the Blue Jays at Yankee Stadium. I think we can all agree that this SHOULD be an easy victory for the Yankees. The Jays have a rookie pitcher on the mound, they ain't much of a team etc. If the Yankees could handle the Red Sox, then playing the Jays should be a walk in the park. The public loads up on the Bronx Bombers. And the rest is history. Toronto wins and vegas owns the public once again.
Same thing with Florida. They come off a sweep of the Phillies and now everyone turns to them. Houston is garbage team. It should be a cakewalk. The public loads up on the fish. And the rest is history. Houston wins and vegas owns the public once again.
And on and on it goes.
Said perfectly! I agree 1000% for some reason people just don't get it. Im just trying to help everyone a little...thats how this all started.
all I get is...Genius wise ass cracks
Thank you very much
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Posted:
#65
It is true that Vegas books are setting the lines on what they think the Public will be both ways against the line. Baseball is a bit different with the higher juice and larger dogs, but still the same concept. Take it from someone who lived in Vegas for nearly two years and worked with a professional betting team.... Vegas books LIVE and PROSPER because the public LOVES betting favorites. This was never so apparent as during March Madness or Bowl Season when college fans from their school home town come to Vegas and bet on their teams just to bet on their teams. And yes, the Yanks, Sox, Dodgers (this year), Cards - the perceived better teams will often be over-valued. The only way I have seen professional gamblers make money is to create a system where you nearly always be on underdogs and constantly show the different books to provide the best odds.
Good luck to all. If anyone wants to learn more about my time and experience in Vegas, email or add me as friend. It's great stuff and I have been successful in betting since my time there. I am not some BS liar who runs around bragging about some 70% record (like these touts do - such a scam business), but I have been a consistent 55-59% winner for several seasons in various sports. Some seasons have been better, and some have been not so good, but I love chatting or emailing people about the industry.
Good luck to all. If anyone wants to learn more about my time and experience in Vegas, email or add me as friend. It's great stuff and I have been successful in betting since my time there. I am not some BS liar who runs around bragging about some 70% record (like these touts do - such a scam business), but I have been a consistent 55-59% winner for several seasons in various sports. Some seasons have been better, and some have been not so good, but I love chatting or emailing people about the industry.
0
Posted:
#69
Quote Originally Posted by babs1540:
Have you ever looked at a line and its too good to be true? Thats because it is.
In NBA when the Celtics are winning 19 outta 20 and they are -6 to -12 every game and then all of a sudden VS Portland in Portland its a PK game.
its hard to explain man...I just look at lines sometimes and can tell.
Just think about it though... mostly everyone loses right? so if you picked opposite then what would happen? Everyone would win!
when you make your picks what draws you to that team? something does...maybe its the line or you dont have to lay alot. Maybe its a combination of a friendly line for you and a good pitcher is pitching.
I swear i used to lose all the time...you gotta go against the grain.
Lets see for tonight When would Baltimore ever be -152?
Tampa bay on ROAD VS Angels -129
I would pick those 2.....I pray they win or else you'll thimk I'm bullshitting.
GL...I mean no harm.
Have you ever looked at a line and its too good to be true? Thats because it is.
In NBA when the Celtics are winning 19 outta 20 and they are -6 to -12 every game and then all of a sudden VS Portland in Portland its a PK game.
its hard to explain man...I just look at lines sometimes and can tell.
Just think about it though... mostly everyone loses right? so if you picked opposite then what would happen? Everyone would win!
when you make your picks what draws you to that team? something does...maybe its the line or you dont have to lay alot. Maybe its a combination of a friendly line for you and a good pitcher is pitching.
I swear i used to lose all the time...you gotta go against the grain.
Lets see for tonight When would Baltimore ever be -152?
Tampa bay on ROAD VS Angels -129
I would pick those 2.....I pray they win or else you'll thimk I'm bullshitting.
GL...I mean no harm.
WTF are you jiving about ? Tampa was a -138 road fav to a crap mediocre Seattle team with one of their so called ACES on the mound. They lost 11-2 vs a pitcher who the previous game got shelled by KC. Now you have another so called ACE who is facing the guy THEY KEEP SAYING has the best stuff on the RAYS and is 7-8 this year vs the 2nd best team in the AL. Garza is the road fav -130.
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Posted:
#70
Quote Originally Posted by babs1540:
Have you ever looked at a line and its too good to be true? Thats because it is.
In NBA when the Celtics are winning 19 outta 20 and they are -6 to -12 every game and then all of a sudden VS Portland in Portland its a PK game.
its hard to explain man...I just look at lines sometimes and can tell.
Just think about it though... mostly everyone loses right? so if you picked opposite then what would happen? Everyone would win!
when you make your picks what draws you to that team? something does...maybe its the line or you dont have to lay alot. Maybe its a combination of a friendly line for you and a good pitcher is pitching.
I swear i used to lose all the time...you gotta go against the grain.
Lets see for tonight When would Baltimore ever be -152?
Tampa bay on ROAD VS Angels -129
I would pick those 2.....I pray they win or else you'll thimk I'm bullshitting.
GL...I mean no harm.
Have you ever looked at a line and its too good to be true? Thats because it is.
In NBA when the Celtics are winning 19 outta 20 and they are -6 to -12 every game and then all of a sudden VS Portland in Portland its a PK game.
its hard to explain man...I just look at lines sometimes and can tell.
Just think about it though... mostly everyone loses right? so if you picked opposite then what would happen? Everyone would win!
when you make your picks what draws you to that team? something does...maybe its the line or you dont have to lay alot. Maybe its a combination of a friendly line for you and a good pitcher is pitching.
I swear i used to lose all the time...you gotta go against the grain.
Lets see for tonight When would Baltimore ever be -152?
Tampa bay on ROAD VS Angels -129
I would pick those 2.....I pray they win or else you'll thimk I'm bullshitting.
GL...I mean no harm.
I share some of your views but the best way to do it is to have your own lines to compare with. You have good intention but your title probably rubs some people the wrong way.
0
Posted:
#71
Babs, fun thread and I agree with you almost 100%. I often see fishy/trap lines that I have to play the other way. Im usually positive most weeks, and definitely most months, although not millions or anything. However, the last two days have hit me pretty hard, mainly two main plays which I feel like you should have been on if you do play your theory.
Yesterday was the Cards. Opened at -175 and closed at -140 with the world on them. The Cards coming down to 140ish? Trap right? WRONG. Two days ago was the Reds. Everybody on the Giants and it goes from 155ish down to 135ish. Play the Reds right? WRONG. And neither +1.5 runline hit. Maybe you didn't hit those but I did, and got murdered. Still finished plus for the week but it should have been more.
With that said, I liked the O's and Rays at first glance and will probably be on them. People love the Angels at home and the way the Rays just played in Seattle, they should be fade material. Everyone loves the Angels even with an iffy pitcher on the bump. However, gonna play the O's small or maybe not at all, as other sites I do see public on them, not the A's at a nice price.
And for whoever it was that said pound the Dodgers at a low line, NO SHOT. Another possible trap line. Might be on the Giants for a little.
Yesterday was the Cards. Opened at -175 and closed at -140 with the world on them. The Cards coming down to 140ish? Trap right? WRONG. Two days ago was the Reds. Everybody on the Giants and it goes from 155ish down to 135ish. Play the Reds right? WRONG. And neither +1.5 runline hit. Maybe you didn't hit those but I did, and got murdered. Still finished plus for the week but it should have been more.
With that said, I liked the O's and Rays at first glance and will probably be on them. People love the Angels at home and the way the Rays just played in Seattle, they should be fade material. Everyone loves the Angels even with an iffy pitcher on the bump. However, gonna play the O's small or maybe not at all, as other sites I do see public on them, not the A's at a nice price.
And for whoever it was that said pound the Dodgers at a low line, NO SHOT. Another possible trap line. Might be on the Giants for a little.
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